Luckett's Locks: Underdog Saturday

Last week was a good week. Let’s do it again.

We got back on the winning side with a 4-2 against the spread (ATS) mark as we nailed a couple of unders and were on the right side with a couple of road dogs. That bumps our season tally up to 20-27-1 ATS, but there is a lot of football left to be played.

We have gone back to the drawing board for the last week of October. There are some intriguing games on the slate as Saturday should be another exciting day in college football.

Let’s get to the window with the six best plays of Week 9.

Notre Dame (+2.5) at Syracuse

The home loss to Stanford two weeks ago was a bad look, but Notre Dame has been playing better football over the last month or so with wins over North Carolina and BYU away from home. The passing game runs through superstar tight end Michael Mayer and he is hard to stop. Meanwhile, the defense has been stingy against the pass and almost always wins the field position battle.

Up in Central New York, Syracuse must get off the mat quickly following a brutal road loss to Clemson. A bunch of things broke the right way for the Orange in Death Valley, but Dino Babers’ squad still could not get the job done. Expect star tailback Sean Tucker to receive a heavier workload this week against an iffy Notre Dame rush defense. However, Syracuse cannot stop the run.

We’ve seen Notre Dame play three games away from South Bend this season, and they are 3-0 ATS with strong performances against BYU, North Carolina, and Ohio State. The Irish are catching Syracuse in a great spot and are 5-0 ATS in their last five games against ACC competition.

Marcus Freeman gets the best win of his coaching career this point on Saturday as the Irish win outright on the road. Take the points.

Florida (+22.5) vs. Georgia

Billy Napier is off to a 4-3 (1-3) start in year one at Florida as things have been rocky in Gainesville. The Gators just lost another big blue-chip recruiting battle to Miami and have a defense that ranks No. 119 in success rate and No. 109 in EPA. However, the rushing attack has been dominant, and Anthony Richardson has had some solid recent performances.

Georgia is off to a 7-0 (4-0) start and has held five opponents to 10 points or less. Kirby Smart’s program has taken a step back on defense, but the Dawgs are dynamite against the run. On offense, this attack is still crazy efficient unit with run-and-pass balance.

It’s a rivalry game with a three-possession spread. That’s a lot. After trouncing Florida last season, odds are it does not happen again in true blowout fashion. Plus UGA has a huge game looming with Tennessee at home next week. Napier could really use a solid performance, and I think the Gators come up with it on Saturday.

The line is just too high in this spot. Florida hangs around on Saturday afternoon in Jacksonville and earns the cover.

Illinois at Nebraska (+7.5)

Illinois is having a dream season despite a very bad loss to Indiana. In year two under Bret Bielema, the Illini are riding a top-10 defense and an improved offense to wins as this program is in the driver’s season of the Big Ten West title hunt. Chase Brown is having an All-American season at tailback as he leads college football in rushing yards (1,059). This is an old-school Big Ten team.

Interim head coach Mickey Joseph has taken over for Scott Frost at Nebraska and is doing some good things. The Huskers are 2-2 under Joseph and pushed Purdue to the brink before the bye week. The offense is leading the way with quarterback Casey Thompson putting up 8.9 yards per attempt and LSU transfer Trey Palmer is outstanding at wide receiver (47 receptions, 781 yards, 5 touchdowns). But the defense might be the worst in the Big Ten.

The divisional home game is a big moment for Nebraska as a win could give Joseph a push in the coaching search at his alma mater. Meanwhile, this spread is a lot of points for Illinois to be laying on the road in a division game against a familiar opponent that can score points.

Let’s jump on the touchdown and a hook with the home dog.

Kentucky (+12) at Tennessee

Kentucky has caught some bad luck this season as the Wildcats were a pre-snap penalty away from a win at Ole Miss and very likely beat South Carolina with Will Levis in the lineup. Despite that, this has been a top 10-15 team throughout the year that has only gotten better with the return of Chris Rodriguez Jr. (5.5 yards per rush, 58.3% rushing success rate). Levis has provided big passing plays (10 yards per attempt, 23.2% explosive pass rate) when given protection, and the defense is playing at a top-10 level as Brad White’s unit has no true weakness.

The Vols are the talk of college football under second-year head coach Josh Heupel who has Tennessee back in the national title hunt. Hendon Hooker is a legit candidate in the Heisman Trophy race leading an offense that ranks inside the top 10 in passing EPA, points per drive, success rate, and third/fourth down conversion percentage. Tennessee puts a ton of pressure on its opponents, but the pass defense has struggled (No. 91 in success rate, No. 114 in EPA).

It’s a rivalry game in the SEC East, and Kentucky is off a bye and catching Tennessee in a look-ahead spot with a game against Georgia waiting next week. In a matter of weeks, the Vols have gone from the hunter to the hunted. Now they’re laying double digits to a divisional foe that is 11-2-1 ATS with seven outright wins in its last 14 games as a dog.

The spread in this game should be closer to a touchdown rather than two touchdowns. As long as Kentucky can survive the early punch from Tennessee’s tempo, this one should be close throughout and decided in the fourth quarter.

Let’s take the 12 points.

USC (-15.5) at Arizona

The bye week is over for USC as the Pac-12 powerhouse program enters the stretch run at 6-1 (4-1) and firmly in the conference title hunt with a huge home game against UCLA looming on Nov. 19. The Trojans will be a double-digit favorite in each of the three games before that. Once again, the offense is very strong for a Riley team (No. 5 in EPA, No. 8 in success rate, and No. 7 in points per drive), but this team cannot stop the run on defense (No. 130 in rush EPA and No. 124 in rushing success rate).

Jedd Fisch is in year two of his rebuild at Arizona, and this program has taken some positive strides in 2022. The Wildcats have a solid passing game behind Washington State transfer Jayden de Laura (63.3% completion rate on 39. 3 throws per game, 8.3 yards per attempt, and 19 touchdowns) and UTEP transfer Jacob Cowing (53 receptions on 77 targets, 737 yards, 58.4% first down/touchdown rate). Unfortunately, this might be the worst defense in the Power Five.

USC should score early and often against a very bad Arizona defense. Meanwhile, the Arizona run game should have some success, but it hasn’t been really explosive this year. The Wildcats might not be able to take full advantage of their foe’s biggest weakness.

We’ve seen Mississippi State and Oregon go into Arizona Stadium and cover double-digit spreads with ease. USC does the same on Saturday with fresh legs off the bye week.

Lay the big number with Lincoln Riley and Caleb Williams.

Best Bet: Baylor (+2.5) at Texas Tech

Baylor was picked to win the Big 12 in the preseason, but that was a miss by the media. The Bears just had too much NFL talent to replace in Waco. Dave Aranda has his team at 4-3 (2-2) with an efficient offense (No. 20 in success rate) and a leaky pass defense (No. 103 in pass EPA).

In his first season in Lubbock, Joey McGuire is doing an outstanding job getting Texas Tech to 4-3 (2-2) with in-state home wins over Houston and Texas. That matters. The Red Raiders should return to the postseason this season, but they’re kind of doing it with defense (No. 21 in success rate). That is a surprise.

It’s student vs. teacher at Jones AT&T Stadium as McGuire worked for Aranda at Baylor over the last two seasons. The Bears could have an advantage as Texas Tech’s passing offense has not been great (No. 74 EPA, No. 76 success rate). The home team won’t be able to capitalize on Baylor’s biggest weakness.

In a game between two evenly matched teams, we’re taking the offense with stronger efficiency in what should be a one-possession game in the Big 12 between rivals.

Dave Aranda gets the needed road win as the Bears will have the chance to make some noise in November with remaining home games against Kansas State and TCU.