Mark Stoops trusted his gut against Ole Miss...and it worked

Mark Stoops is probably a frustrating person to play Blackjack with. If he hits and stands anything like he makes decisions on whether or not to punt on 4th down, he is probably the type of guy who stays on a 13 with the dealer showing a face card. Despite what the odds, or should I say analytics suggest is the best move, Stoops is probably the guy who goes with his gut in that situation because the last time he hit on a 13 he busted.

This go-with-your-gut-despite-the-analytics mentality was on full display in the 2nd quarter against Ole Miss when Stoops chose to punt on 4th and 2 from the 50-yard line. You could hear the moans at that decision all around the state.

And yet, Kentucky forced an Ole Miss punt six plays later and then drove down the field for a go-ahead touchdown.

Mark Stoops’ gut: 1, analytics: 0.

However, the most awe-inspiring instinct-driven decision came on a play Big Blue Nation will be talking about for a long time. Down by four deep in its own territory with four minutes left in the game, Kentucky faced a 4th and 7. With two timeouts and the two-minute timeout available, analytics suggest punting was the right move. Kentucky fans wouldn’t have blamed him for it, especially the way the defense had been stopping Ole Miss, but Stoops’s gut had different plans.

He went for it. Brock Vandagriff threw a bomb. Barion Brown caught it. And the rest is history. Essentially, Stoops hit a 17 against a dealer’s ace and out came a four.

ESPN’s analytics showed that Ole Miss had a 93.4 percent chance to win the game when Kentucky faced that 4th down, but when has math ever been right?

Stoops’s penchant for bucking the numbers can be infuriating at times, but when it works (and it did against Ole Miss), it is fabulous.