Rushing success is available against Mississippi State

All-SEC tailback Chris Rodriguez Jr. will play his third game of the season with Kentucky on Saturday night following a four-game suspension. Through eight quarters, the redshirt senior has looked like his normal self.

Chris Rodriguez Jr. has rushed for 198 yards on 4.8 yards per rush in two games, but that does not tell the whole story. The veteran has yet to provide some chunk plays, but he has put Kentucky’s offense in good situations with a 56.1 percent rushing success rate in 41 attempts. Rodriguez has looked like his normal efficient self.

The tailback will get a chance to pad those numbers against Zach Arnett’s Mississippi State defense on Saturday night at Kroger Field. Through six games, the Bulldogs rank No. 99 overall in yards per rush, No. 82 in rushing EPA, and No. 60 in rushing success rate. The 3-3-5 stack defense has had issues fitting the run.

Through six games, most offenses have found success from their leading rusher.

• Jay Ducker (Memphis): 5 carries, 63 yards, 6.3 yards per rush, 100% success rate
• Michael Wiley (Arizona): 6 carries, 49 yards, 8.2 yards per rush, 50% success rate
• Armoni Goodwin (LSU): 9 carries, 75 yards, 5.8 yards per rush, 55.6% success rate
• Jaison Patterson (Bowling Green): 7 carries, 23 yards, 3.3 yards per rush, 28.6% success rate
• Devon Achane (Texas A&M): 16 carries, 111 yards, 6.9 yards per rush, 68.7% success rate
• Raheim Sanders (Arkansas): 20 carries, 86 yards, 4.3 yards per rush, 50% success rate

Back in 2020, Kentucky averaged over five yards per rush against Arnett’s defense when you subtract the yardage lost on a bad long snap that resulted in a safety. Last fall, Kentucky had less than 50 plays and only nine possessions as Mississippi State controlled the game. On Saturday, Kentucky must be committed to the run and getting Rodriguez touches early and often.

Memphis, LSU, Texas A&M, and Arkansas have all averaged over six yards per rush on non-sack attempts against this Mississippi State run defense. Kentucky needs to be ready to take advantage of this leaky front and give the ball to Rodriguez.

Kentucky will need Will Levis to make some big plays in the passing game, but rushing efficiency is what will give the Cats the best shot at consistent success against the Bulldogs. A big game could be coming from Chris Rodriguez Jr. on Saturday night.