Monday Huddle: Another Big Road Test

Ole Miss looks like a College Football Playoff team. Kentucky had to face the Rebels on the road. Tennessee looks like a College Football Playoff team. Kentucky had to face the Vols on the road. Guess what is on the schedule this week?

Kentucky’s fourth road game against a top-10 foe has arrived as Steve Sarkisian has Texas (9-1, 5-1) primed to make the College Football Playoff for the second consecutive season. The Longhorns have a top-five offense and defense and have looked like the best team in college football at different points this season. A huge game awaits with archrival Texas A&M next weekend in College Station, but first is Senior Day at DKR Texas Memorial Stadium.

Kentucky (4-6, 1-6) finds itself in the spoiler role again as a three-touchdown dog. A huge rivalry game awaits the Wildcats next week but Saturday will be an opportunity for this football team to go toe-to-toe with a Texas squad that is outstanding on both sides of the ball.

KSR’s Monday Huddle is back to set the table for the penultimate game of the season. What will the Wildcats attempt to do on offense? Could we see a resurgent performance from the defense as that unit gets healthier? We will find out in Austin.

Our full week of coverage for the trip to the Lonestar State begins now.

First Down: Where is the youth movement at on offense?

Kentucky decided to commit to Jamarion Wilcox in the Tennessee game. That ended up becoming a good decision as the redshirt freshman gave Kentucky its first 100-yard game rusher in Week 10. After the bye week, Kentucky made a commitment to getting quarterback Cutter Boley extended time. That ended up being a good decision as Boley led the Kentucky offense to 24 points in four non-kneel possessions in the second half of a 48-6 win.

The Wildcats have also given redshirt freshman Malachi Wood an extended look at right tackle. True freshman wide receiver Hardley Gilmore IV has played 30-plus snaps in the last two games. Kentucky has shown a willingness to play more young players in recent weeks.

How much will that continue against Texas?

Kentucky showed a commitment to Brock Vandagriff by allowing the redshirt junior quarterback to start a game after most practice time was missed. Just one game after going all-in on Wilcox, Kentucky went back to Demie Sumo-Karngbaye against Murray State in the first quarter.

Is Kentucky ready to go young or will they commit to the veterans that have played all year?

Odds are that this is still Vandagriff’s show for the rest of the year but there could be more willingness to play Boley if things get sideways. The availability report on Wednesday will also be worth paying attention to. Starting center Eli Cox left the game with an injury against Murray State and did not return on Saturday. Barion Brown missed his first game of the season after suffering an injury against Tennessee.

We’re not sure if we will see Boley down in action against Texas but we should see a heavy workload from Wilcox. However, we had thought that was coming before and it didn’t. Kentucky has leaned into an offensive youth movement in recent games and that should continue in the final conference game of the season.

Second Down: Kentucky’s pass defense is what will make this a close game or not

Texas suffered multiple injuries at tailback in the preseason and entered the season fairly thin at the position. That has led to an inefficient rushing attack. The Longhorns have averaged 3.4 yards per rush in three of their last four games and do not have a single player with 500 rushing yards this season. This offense ranks No. 76 in rushing EPA/play.

Kentucky’s run defense has had some bad moments recently and that must get fixed. However, Texas operates out of a pro-style base with some college spread elements sprinkled in. If the Wildcats are truly healthy and get some of those injured players back in the lineup, there should be a path to taking away this traditional running game and making Texas one-dimensional.

Will Kentucky’s pass defense be able to hold up on Saturday afternoon?

The Longhorns rank No. 40 in passing success rate but No. 13 in passing EPA/play. Quinn Ewers takes some sacks (14 in 260 dropbacks), doesn’t get vertical often (6.7 yards average depth of target), and has averaged under seven yards per attempt in power conference starts against Michigan, Oklahoma, Georgia, and Arkansas. Texas’ leading receiver is a tight end, and while the wideout depth is great, there is no clear star in this receiving group. The Horns stay ahead of the chains, but this has not been the most explosive passing game.

There are potential winning matchups in both areas for a Kentucky defense that enters Week 13 ranked No. 41 in EPA/play allowed and No. 49 in success rate allowed. Can the Cats capitalize?

It will likely be rough sledding throughout the game for the Kentucky offense facing a Texas defense that ranks No. 1 in EPA/play allowed and No. 7 in success rate allowed. The Wildcats are going to need a strong defensive performance to have a shot in this one. That will likely come down to how well this group covers.

DJ Lagway and Nico Iamaleava each produced their best performances of the season throwing against this Kentucky secondary. That must be avoided on Saturday. The Wildcats beat Ole Miss and had a chance to beat Georgia in the fourth quarter due to the pass defense. Getting Maxwell Hairston back in the lineup does not hurt.

The one big box that Kentucky must check is keeping this Texas passing game contained. The Wildcats will have a great chance to hang around if that happens.

Third Down: Another big opportunity as a double-digit dog

Kentucky is 4-6 outright this season but does own a 6-4 against-the-spread record (ATS). The Wildcats have exceeded pregame spread expectations in each of their non-power conference games. We’ve seen this team struggle as an SEC favorite (0-4 outright) but they have been cash as a dog.

The Wildcats are 3-0 ATS as an underdog this season and had the ball down one-possession in the fourth quarter in meetings against Georgia, Ole Miss, and Tennessee. Will that strong underdog trend continue against Texas?

In the Mark Stoops era, Kentucky has been a large road dog (15+ points) 14 times. The Wildcats have produced positive results.

• 2013: Kentucky (+21) at South Carolina | Gamecocks 35, Cats 28
• 2013: Kentucky (+26) at Georgia | Bulldogs 59, Cats 17
• 2014: Kentucky (+18) at Florida | Gators 36, Cats 30
• 2015: Kentucky (+16) at Georgia | Bulldogs 27, Cats 3
• 2016: Kentucky (+16) at Florida | Gators 45, Cats 7
• 2016: Kentucky (+35) at Alabama | Crimson Tide 34, Cats 6
• 2016: Kentucky (+27) at Louisville | Cats 41, Cards 38
• 2017: Kentucky (+21) at Georgia | Bulldogs 42, Cats 13
• 2019: Kentucky (+24) at Georgia | Bulldogs 21, Cats 0
• 2020: Kentucky (+32) at Alabama | Crimson Tide 63, Cats 3
• 2020: Kentucky (+24) at Florida | Gators 34, Cats 10
• 2021: Kentucky (+21) at Georgia | Bulldogs 30, Cats 13
• 2024: Kentucky (+15.5) at Ole Miss | Cats 20, Rebels 17
• 2024: Kentucky (+17.5) at Tennessee | Vols 28, Cats 18

Kentucky is just 2-12 overall in these games but 8-5-1 ATS. The Wildcats took Florida to overtime in 2016, knocked Louisville out of the Orange Bowl in 2016, recorded a late backdoor cover against No. 1 ranked Georgia in 2021, and beat a top-10 Ole Miss team outright at a sold-out Vaught-Hemingway Stadium.

The Wildcats are riding a 4-0-1 ATS streak dating back to last season as a dog. Four of those games have occurred against top-10 teams. One thing you can say about this Kentucky team is that they come up short as expectations as a favorite against power conference competition, but exceeded expectations when you think a blowout loss is coming.

Texas is currently a 20.5-point favorite in this matchup. The Horns are 3-3 ATS as a double-digit home favorite under Sarkisian against power conference foes with an overtime loss as a 31-point favorite to Kansas in 2021.

Will Kentucky continue this out of nowhere trend of being able to take top-10 teams deep into the fourth quarter?

The week ahead at KSR

Kentucky will hit the road for the final time this when this program faces Texas for the first time since 1951. KSR will be here throughout the week as we take a closer look at the matchup and dive into the areas where the Wildcats could provide some problems to the big home favorite in Week 13.

We will have full coverage of Monday’s press conference with Mark Stoops taking the podium at high noon. Practice reports and podcasts will take over from there as Saturday approaches.

Our in-depth scouting report on Texas will go live on Thursday at KSR+ along with a film review of Murray State on Tuesday and a game day column wrapping up everything we learned from this week.

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Kentucky has a chance to go toe-to-toe with another one of the best teams in college football. Recent results tell us that this will not be an easy knockout for the Longhorns.