Monday Huddle: Rivalry week is Kentucky's bowl game in 2024

Kentucky’s eight-game bowl streak was officially snapped on Saturday afternoon in Austin. The Wildcats (4-7, 1-7) have recorded their worst SEC finish since 2013 and will not be making a trip to a bowl location in December for the first time since 2015. A year of good streaks coming to an end could see another one end on Saturday afternoon at Kroger Field.

Kentucky currently owns a five-game winning streak in the Governor’s Cup series and has not lost a game in this rivalry since Lamar Jackson was on campus. Louisville (7-4, 5-3) will be highly motivated to end that streak during Senior Day in Lexington on Saturday afternoon.

The early forecast is calling for some true football weather (30 degrees, winds at 8-9 MPH) but this game will serve as the bowl game for Kentucky. Can the Wildcats end a bad season on a high note before a critical December arrives.

We will find out shortly.

First Down: It feels like Cutter Boley time

Kentucky made a move at quarterback after falling into a 24-7 hole at halftime against Texas. True freshman quarterback Cutter Boley received extended playing time for the first time against an SEC foe this season and did not disappoint.

An argument can be made that the offense looked as good as it’s been all season with No. 8 taking snaps from under center against a top-five defense with a ferocious pass rush.

Boley finished the game with 160 passing yards with five explosive completions in 23 dropbacks. The Wildcats created four scoring opportunities in five possessions, mostly thanks to Boley’s playmaking. Kentucky failed to finish drives with points but you saw the arm talent and QB1 potential from the former blue-chip recruit that was a big addition for this program in the 2024 recruiting cycle.

Now it’s hard to imagine Kentucky going any other direction at quarterback. Boley was productive against a Texas defense that ranks No. 2 in passing success rate allowed, No. 2 in EPA/dropback allowed, and No. 1 in yards per dropback allowed. What could Boley do against a Louisville defense that ranks No. 37 in passing success rate allowed, No. 64 in EPA/dropback allowed, and No. 43 in yards per dropback allowed?

Kentucky will need their traditional run game to have some success against a leaky Louisville run defense, but Boley definitely provided a spark at Darrel K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium. Will that spark earn him his first career start and give the Kentucky offense a better chance at scoring points?

The Cutter Boley development has added an extra level of intrigue heading into the 36th all-time meeting in this rivalry.

Second Down: How many points will be needed to win?

Louisville has played 11 games this season and has gone north of 30 points in eight outings. Notre Dame, SMU, and Virginia are the only defenses to hold Jeff Brohm‘s offense to 27 points or less. This offense’s low mark for the season is 24 points.

Kentucky has not scored more than 20 points against a power conference foe this season. Can the Wildcats score enough to win this game?

The Louisville offense enters this matchup ranked No. 11 in SP+, No. 22 in offensive success rate, and No. 25 in points per drive. Kentucky has played better offenses, but the Cards have the balance to give any defense some problems. Louisville enters this game with a 3,000-yard passer (Tyler Shough), a 1-000-yard receiver (Ja’Corey Brooks), and a 896-yard running back (Isaac Brown) who should reach 1,000-yard either this week or in the bowl game.

Louisville’s offense has been extremely explosive (No. 5 nationally in plays of 20-plus yards). Kentucky’s defense will have a difficult challenge. That is made even more difficult knowing that the offense is limited. Louisville’s defense has had some bad moments allowing at least 27 points in six of eight outings against power conference competition. But can Kentucky’s offense take advantage?

This feels like a game where Kentucky could need some help from the kicking game or defense to score points. It seems clear that north of 20 points will be needed to win this game. That gives Louisville an advantage when you start breaking down the matchup. Kentucky will have to do something it has not done all season on Saturday.

Third Down: Does Kentucky still have a mental edge in this series?

One thing that Kentucky has always done well under Mark Stoops is get ready for this rivalry game against Louisville. We have seen this program consistently produce one of its better performances of the season in this matchup and that has led to a 6-1 outright mark in the last seven meetings dating back to 2016.

Stoops is 7-2-1 against-the-spread (ATS) all-time against Louisville. Does the recent success play a factor?

Once he returned home, Jeff Brohm seemingly went out of his way to discuss how big this game was. Despite locking in a berth to the ACC Championship Game, Brohm called it the biggest game of the season. That led to emotions running high and Kentucky ultimately being the more composed team. That played a role in high-leverage moments in the fourth quarter.

Does Kentucky still have the mental edge in this series?

Louisville has a roster filled with transfers and some young players who have never played in this series. Kentucky’s players are more experienced when it comes to being involved in this heated matchup. Does that matter? It has mattered in the past.

Louisville did not respond to adversity well when close games in 2019 and 2021 turned into blowouts. The Cardinals were the hotter team in 2022 but did not play well as their top-25 defense allowed a sluggish Kentucky offense to have one of its best performances of the season. Then a top-10 Louisville team could not beat a 6-5 Kentucky team last year.

Everything has gone Kentucky’s way in this winning streak with blowout wins and last year’s one-score win. The Wildcats own a plus-six turnover margin in the current streak and have consistently been the more ready team.

Louisville will need to flip this on Saturday to win. Kentucky clearly has the mental edge in this series and that makes them a live dog for this matchup. Who keeps their composure and responds correctly in a high-leverage moment when the time comes? That could determine the winner at Kroger Field.

The week ahead at KSR

Kentucky closes up shop on the 2024 season with an eye on the 2025 year. Senior Day will get the party started on Saturday morning at Kroger Field but we should get a look at multiple young players in the rivalry matchup with Louisville.

We will have full coverage of Monday’s press conference with Mark Stoops taking the podium at high noon. Practice reports and podcasts will take over from there as Saturday approaches.

Our in-depth scouting report on Louisville will go live on Wednesday at KSR+ along with a film review of Texas and a game day column wrapping up everything we learned from this week.

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Kentucky has a chance to end the season on a good note with another rivalry win against Louisville. All the focus this week will be about getting ready for this game but there is no denying what is coming around the bend in December. It’s go time.