Monday Huddle: Road test at full strength

The wait will finally end on Saturday afternoon at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. After playing the first month of the season without one of its top weapons, Kentucky’s offense will gladly welcome back All-SEC tailback Chris Rodriguez Jr. to the lineup to begin a stretch of seven consecutive conference games.

Kentucky was able to get off to a 4-0 start without Rodriguez and now will be very close to full strength as the teeth of the schedule arrives in October. We’ve reached another big football week in the Bluegrass as many in the Big Blue Nation are planning on making the trip to Ole Miss for the first time since 2010. KSR will be there every step of the way.

Monday Huddle is here to begin the party.

First Down: What will No. 24 bring to the offense?

Kentucky tailback Chris Rodriguez Jr. is one of the top efficiency weapons in college football. The data backs this up.

The former low three-star recruit out of Greater Atlanta averaged over 7 yards per rush in limited playing time in 2019 before busting onto the scene in 2020. Over the last two years, the star running back has rushed for over 2,000 yards and 21 touchdowns while consistently moving the chains.

• 2020: 65.5% success rate, 14.3% explosive run rate, 4.2% stuff rate, 46.2% first down/touchdown rate, 6.6 yards per rush on 13.2 attempts per game
• 2021: 55.1% success rate, 16.4% explosive run rate, 8.4% stuff rate, 32.9% first down/touchdown rate, 6.1 yards per rush on 17.3 attempts per game

Rodriguez does a great job keeping the offense ahead of the chains, avoids negative plays at a high rate, and provides some chunk plays while not being a true speedster in the open field. Kentucky has had one of the best rushing attacks in the SEC over the last two years largely due to the efficiency of No. 24.

Chris Rodriguez Jr. went beast mode 😳 pic.twitter.com/8IJJsGumOA

— SEC Network (@SECNetwork) September 4, 2021

The redshirt senior will make his season debut on Saturday afternoon, but a lot has changed in the four games since Rodriguez broke a tackle in the backfield and barreled in for the game-winning touchdown in the Citrus Bowl. Kentucky now has a high-flying passing attack with Will Levis hitting another gear at quarterback and an offensive line that is having all kinds of issues.

Kentucky is going to go as far as Levis can take them, but QB1 could use some help. Outside of Kavosiey Smoke, the Cats have had issues at tailback to this point in the season with rushers failing at moving piles and missing some open lanes. Rodriguez should check both boxes.

The presence of Chris Rodriguez Jr. alone should give offensive coordinator Rich Scangarello more balance as Kentucky’s offense is set to add one of the best running backs in college football. We’ll learn quickly if Rodriguez’s running style is enough to help fix some of the ground game woes and open up even more opportunities for an explosive passing attack.

Second Down: Slowing down the Ole Miss run game won’t be easy

Through 16 quarters of football, opposing offenses are averaging 108.2 rushing yards on 29.2 attempts per game against Kentucky. Foes have accumulated an ugly 26.4 percent success rate as opposing rushing attacks are consistently falling behind the chains. In Week 2, Florida popped a couple of big runs, but the Gators had a low success rate (20.7%) as Kentucky consistently kept them behind the chains.

However, the toughest challenge this season for Kentucky’s stingy run defense will be on Saturday. Ole Miss might own the most lethal ground attack in college football.

Lane Kiffin has seen his offense become very run-heavy (65.1%) as the Rebels are averaging 280.7 rushing yards per game on 5.8 yards per attempt. Tailbacks Zach Evans and Quinshon Judkins have combined for 794 yards through four games on a 53.5 percent success rate. Meanwhile, quarterback Jaxson Dart has also emerged as a legitimate run threat after rushing for 116 yards in Saturday’s home win over Tulsa.

The Rebels use tempo as a weapon, and their four opponents have had no answers with run fits facing this spread offense. There will be a strength-on-strength matchup on Saturday as Kentucky has done a great job stopping the run to this point. Ole Miss is going to get yards on the ground, but the Cats cannot let the Rebs run wild.

The chess match between Lane Kiffin/Charlie Weis Jr. and Mark Stoops/Brad White will be fascinating on Saturday afternoon.

Third Down: Mark Stoops has another streak to snap

Mark Stoops is now the all-time wins leader at Kentucky and has built a bonafide top-25 college football program in Lexington. Under his watch, the Cats have consistently knocked down doors and ended a bunch of embarrassing streaks. All of that work has led to a season where Kentucky owns a top-10 ranking heading into October with a legit shot at making a divisional title run.

However, there is another streak that Stoops needs to snap. Kentucky is 0-10 in SEC West road games under his watch and only 2-8 against the spread. The Cats have never been a favorite in these matchups and historically do not play one of their best games of the year in this spot.

Stoops has ended some ugly streaks before, and this one feels like it will end sooner rather than later. With a very big stage awaiting the Cats in Oxford, Kentucky will look to pick up a big SEC road win to improve to 2-0 in conference play.

Expect this long losing streak to be a prominent storyline before the contest with Ole Miss arrives on Saturday night. Kentucky will have a great chance on Saturday to end another streak and set themselves up for a big run in SEC play with a win over the Rebels.

The week ahead at KSR

Kentucky will hit the road for the second time this season in Week 5, and KSR will have boots on the ground in Oxford as we all get ready for some breakfast in The Grove. We’ve entered a huge football week with a top-15 matchup awaiting us at the end.

KSR will have full coverage of Mark Stoops’ press conference on Monday and provide any injury news if it becomes available. Both Kentucky and Ole Miss have important players who could be questionable for Saturday. There will be practice reports throughout the week and new podcast episodes from The KSR Football Podcast on Monday and 11 Personnel on Wednesday. Pick 3 will then go live on Thursday as KSR’s gambling trio provides some more locks.

Can Kentucky knock off another ranked team on the road? We will find out soon.