Monday Huddle: The biggest swing moment of the season has arrived for Kentucky football

When the schedule was a first released and preseason expectations were set for every program in the SEC, there were two specific areas that stood out for Kentucky as Mark Stoops and his staff underwent a huge rebuild in year 13. The Wildcats had two clear missions they had to accomplish before the calendar turned to October: beat the MAC teams and at least earn a split SEC games versus Ole Miss and South Carolina.

The Cats handled the Group of Six portion of this year’s schedule. Now they need to find an SEC win.

Week 5 is a colossal one for this one football program. Add in some of the negative trends (SEC losing streak, power conference losing streak, losing streak to South Carolina, bye week results) and there is plenty to be anxious about as UK hits the road as a underdog for the game at Williams-Brice Stadium. Swing games make or break college football because this is such a small sample sport. Perhaps no game in the SEC is a bigger swing game yearly than Kentucky-South Carolina.

There is no hiding from the importance of this games. Both sides need a win. The loser on Saturday night in Columbia will fall in an early season hole that will be tough to get out of. This is a true make or break moment.

KSR’s Monday Huddle is back to set the table for a week where the Kentucky run game needs to shine, the Cats must eliminate some ugly streaks, and why this series has been the ultimate swing game for both programs over two-plus decades and multiple head coaches.

First Down: Kentucky has massive ground game advantage in this matchup

The Kentucky football program made a concerted effort to rebuild from the inside-out this offseason in the transfer portal. This program added three offensive starters to the roster from the portal and three front seven starters to the defense from the portal. The NIL pay scale pie chart would have some big pieces in the trenches.

Kentucky rebuilt this way to construct a team that could win at the line of scrimmage and create multiple winning opportunities in the fourth quarter in SEC play. That played out in Week 2 when the Cats had numerous chances against Ole Miss thanks in large to a run game (187 non-sack rushing yards, 5.5 yards per rush, 47% success rate) that efficiently moved the football. The Cats currently rank No. 27 in EPA/rush and No. 34 in rushing success rate. The ground attack is leading the way.

That will need to remain the case against South Carolina.

South Carolina’s defense enters Week 5 ranked No. 47 in EPA/rush allowed and No. 46 in rushing success rate allowed. Those are not terrible numbers but when you compare it to the other side the two-way run game results are alarming. Virginia Tech, Vanderbilt, and Missouri all rank sub-90 in rushing success rate allowed. Each allowed less than five yards per rush against South Carolina. A Hokies team that fired head coach Brent Pry after an 0-3 start is the only power conference defense to allow more than 106 non-sack rushing yards versus the Gamecocks. Against a Missouri defense that ranked No. 94 in rushing success rate allowed and No. 85 in EPA/rush allowed, South Carolina produced just 37 non-sack rushing yards on 17 attempts. This has been a major problem for this football team.

The Gamecocks have a passing game that ranks sub-70 in every meaningful statistic under new offensive coordinator Mike Shula. This is not enough to carry the team. Shane Beamer‘s squad is struggling because they are losing the rushing battle on a wekly basis. That means they are getting beat in the trenches.

Kentucky spent major resources this offseason to rebuild in the trenches. The Cats must win the battle upfront. Winning the line of scrimmage fight will allow them to dictate the pace of the game. It all starts with the ground attacks.

Second Down: Kentucky must snap some streaks

The Kentucky team enters Week 5 with a 2-1 record with a one-possession home loss to an undefeated Ole Miss team. UK is exactly where they were supposed to be at this point of the season by winning the two games they were supposed to and dropping one as an underdog. However, this season will likely go down as a disappointment if that trend holds. The Cats are going to have to break some streaks to have a good season. That means winning as an underdog.

This program is currently wearing a long power conference losing streak (7 games) and that could very well extend to 11 games with contests against Georgia, Texas, and Tennessee scheduled in October. That is something this program should want no part of. The best chance to end it until November will occur on Saturday night in Columbia against a South Carolina squad that has won three consecutive games in this series.

There are some ugly trends entering this matchup. There are some ugly streaks hovering over this Kentucky program right now. The home losing skid is most likely the ugliest but there is nothing that UK can do about that this week. Saturday is a great opportunity to end multiple bad trends. UK must end some this season to have a successful year.

Saturday is a huge test for this football program. The result could tell us exactly where this season is headed.

Third Down: Why this is such a swing game for both programs

From 2014-21, Kentucky played South Carolina every season. The Cats finished 7-1 in those games. This came after losing 10 games in a row from 2000-09 and a 1-13 record from 2000-13. The Gamecocks owned this series and that led to 10 bowl game appearances during this 14-year run after only making one bowl game during the program’s first eight seasons in the SEC. Kentucky flipped the series and rode it to one of the best sustained runs of the success the program has ever seen with eight consecutive bowl game appearances and two double-digit win seasons.

Each program has used this game as a launching point to success.

South Carolina (Year)	Record	Bowl	AP Top 25 Finish	Against Kentucky
2000	8-4 (5-3)	Outback Bowl	No. 19	Won 20-17 (Lexington)
2001	9-3 (5-3)	Outback Bowl	No. 13	Won 42-6 (Columbia)
2002	5-7 (3-5)	N/A	N/A	Won 16-12 (Lexington)
2003	5-7 (2-6)	N/A	N/A	Won 27-21 (Columbia)
2004	6-5 (4-4)	N/A	N/A	Won 12-7 (Lexington)
2005	7-5 (5-3)	Independence Bowl	N/A	Won 44-16 (Columbia)
2006	8-5 (3-5)	Liberty Bowl	N/A	Won 24-17 (Lexington)
2007	6-6 (3-5)	N/A	N/A	Won 38-23 (Columbia)
2008	7-6 (4-4)	Outback Bowl	N/A	Won 24-17 (Lexington)
2009	7-6 (3-5)	PapaJohns.com Bowl	N/A	Won 28-26 (Columbia)
2010	9-5 (5-3)	Chick-fil-A Bowl	No. 22	Lost 31-28 (Lexington)
2011	11-2 (6-2)	Capital One Bowl	No. 9	Won 54-3 (Columbia)
2012	11-2 (6-2)	Outback Bowl	No. 8	Won 38-17 (Lexington)
2013	11-2 (6-2)	Capital One Bowl	No. 4	Won 35-28 (Columbia)

Kentucky (Year)	Record	Bowl	AP Top 25 Finish	Against South Carolina
2014	5-7 (2-6)	N/A	N/A	Won 45-38 (Lexington)
2015	5-7 (2-6)	N/A	N/A	Won 26-22 (Columbia)
2016	7-6 (4-4)	TaxSlayer Bowl	N/A	Won 17-10 (Lexington)
2017	7-6 (4-4)	Music City Bowl	N/A	Won 23-13 (Columbia)
2018	10-3 (5-3)	Citrus Bowl	No. 12	Won 24-10 (Lexington)
2019	8-5 (3-5)	Belk Bowl	N/A	Lost 24-7 (Columbia)
2020	5-6 (4-6)	Gator Bowl	N/A	Won 41-18 (Lexington)
2021	10-3 (5-3)	Citrus Bowl	No. 18	Won 16-10 (Columbia)

South Carolina has flipped the series back to their side under Shane Beamer and seems to have the better current program trajectory. It’s clear what this series has become — this is a swing game that can tell us where each program’s season and short-term future is headed.

Twenty years of data now says that it is hard for the Wildcats and Gamecocks to be successful at the same time. We are not sure what this series will look like when the SEC shifts to a nine-game model in 2026, but we know the significance in 2025. The loser this weekend at Williams-Brice Stadium could be looking at a very, very long season. The Gamecocks are a projected double-digit underdog in every remaining SEC game after Kentucky. UK is currently only a projected favorite against Florida in its remaining SEC games. This is a again a huge swing. The winner will have a chance to go bowling. The loser could finish last-place in the conference.

Kentucky has to start beating South Carolina to have good seasons again. South Carolina must continue beating Kentucky to continue its climb up the SEC ladder. This is once again a critical matchup for both programs.

The week ahead at KSR

Game week is here, and KSR will provide the Big Blue Nation with in-depth pregame content from now until kickoff arrives on Saturday night. Kentucky’s first road trip of the season is a colossal one.

We will have full coverage of Mark Stoops’ press conference on Monday. From there, practice reports and daily podcasts will take over as Saturday quickly approaches. We will also get an SEC availability report on Wednesday that will give us an official status update on Dante Dowdell, Zach Calzada, Jamarion Wilcox, Troy Stellato, Josaih Hayes, DJ Waller Jr., and Terhyon Nichols. Calzada, Waller, Stellato, and Hayes did not play against Eastern Michigan. Dowdell and Nichols were pulled from the game. We are still unsure what Wilcox’s long-term status is after getting in some legal trouble. Stay tuned for some news updates.

Over at KSR+, we will have our in-depth scouting report on South Carolina published on Thursday along with some more preseason content before this big Week 5 game arrives. The biggest swing moment of the season has arrived.