Monday Huddle: Flipping The Series

We had to wait three long weeks to see Kentucky play an SEC game in 2023. The wait is much shorter in 2024. After handling Southern Miss in a unique opener, the Wildcats will shift into conference mode with three league games over the next four weeks before the first bye week of the season arrives.

Shane Beamer will bring his fourth South Carolina team to Lexington in Week 2. The 47-year-old with a 21-18 overall record has led the Gamecocks to two consecutive victories in this series. For Kentucky to get to where they want to go, they must flip this series.

A huge swing game for both SEC programs will occur early in the season. This one has some stakes. KSR’s Monday Huddle is back to set the table for the first SEC game week of the 2024 season in the Bluegrass.

First Down: Big opportunity for Kentucky’s defense

The Kentucky defense got the job done in the Week 1 weather-shortened victory over Southern Miss. The Wildcats pitched a shutout in seven possessions, produced a 35.5 percent havoc rate, and allowed just 20 non-sack rushing yards on 10 attempts. All of that could translate to Week 2.

South Carolina got off to a rough start in year two under second-year offensive coordinator Dowell Loggains.

The Gamecocks scored 23 points in 15 possessions in a four-point home win against Old Dominion on Saturday. Both touchdown drives occurred after sack fumbles by the South Carolina defense set the Gamecocks up with a direct goal-to-go series. The offense went field goal attempt (x4), punt (x6), end of half (x2), and turnover in the other 13 possessions. Carolina finished the game averaging only 3.6 yards per play with a heavy run rate (65.8%). Old Dominion’s defense was ranked No. 115 overall in ESPN’s SP+ preseason season rankings. Saturday was a very underwhelming offensive performance.

The run game struggled to get going producing a paltry 36.1 percent rushing success rate on over 52 snaps creating only seven explosive plays. Arkansas transfer Rocket Sanders produced only 88 yards on 24 carries and quarterback LaNorris Sellers went for 100 yards on 18 carries.

Despite having an offensive line with numerous question marks, South Carolina is shifting to a run-heavy approach in 2024. Wide receiver is a unit that appears to have a long way to go and the run game needs to carry this offense. The matchup could be difficult in Week 2 because of this.

The strength of Kentucky’s team and defense is the front seven. We saw that play out last week. The on-paper matchup tells us that the Wildcats have a very favorable matchup this week. The Wildcats should be an outstanding run defense team all season and that could create a ton of short possessions for South Carolina.

Second Down: Ball security could equal a double-digit win

Despite consistently facing South Carolina defenses that finished in the bottom half of the SEC conference, Kentucky has struggled to score against the Gamecocks since Shane Beamer took over in Columbia. Offensive coordinators Liam Coen and Rich Scangarello led offenses that accumulated just 44 points in the last three matchups. Kentucky has not reached 20 points in this series since 2020.

New play-caller Bush Hamdan will look to change that this season after a solid debut against Southern Miss. Kentucky has struggled to throw the football in this matchup throwing for under 180 yards in each matchup. Will Levis and Devin Leary each posted below six yards per attempt in their only starts against Carolina. Kentucky will need Brock Vandagriff to surpass that but the passing game really isn’t the reason the Wildcats have lost consecutive games in this series.

Turnovers have played a huge role in the matchups against Beamer. The Gamecocks have created multiple takeaways in each contest since the former Virginia Tech, Georgia, and Oklahoma assistant took over the program.

• 2021: +3 (Kentucky 3 turnovers, South Carolina 0 turnovers)
• 2022: Even (Kentucky 2 turnovers, South Carolina 2 turnovers)
• 2023: +3 (Kentucky 3 turnovers, South Carolina 0 turnovers)

Clayton White has been the South Carolina defensive coordinator since 2021 and has yet to produce a unit that finished in the top 60 in points per drive, success rate, or yards per play. Yet, the Gamecocks have created a ton of stops against Kentucky thanks mostly to takeaways.

The matchup tells us that South Carolina will have a hard time moving the football against Kentucky’s defense. Kentucky’s offense needs to play complementary football and that means protecting the football. Strong ball security likely leads to a big win in Week 2.

Third Down: Fixing a bad trend

Kentucky got to 9-3 in 2018 thanks to a strong home record. The Wildcats beat Mississippi State and South Carolina by double-digits in games they were not favored in. That set up a huge contest against Georgia for the SEC East title. In 2021, three consecutive SEC home wins against Missouri, Florida, and LSU buoyed the Wildcats to a big season.

You have to protect home field. Kentucky has had consecutive disappointing seasons due to the inability to protect home field.

Kentucky lost three home games in 2022 including dropping games as a favorite versus South Carolina and Vanderbilt. The Wildcats would again drop three conference home games in 2023 after opening the SEC campaign with a win over Florida. In games against power conference competition, Kentucky is just 3-7 outright in their last 10 home contests. That could quickly turn to 3-9 if the Wildcats do not beat South Carolina with a game versus No. 1 Georgia on deck.

The Wildcats have to start winning SEC games at home again. Saturday presents a great opportunity to get a big win in front of packed home crowd. Good seasons are built by getting big wins at home.

The week ahead at KSR

The first SEC game week is here, and KSR will provide the Big Blue Nation with in-depth pregame content from now until kickoff arrives on Saturday afternoon. The schedule’s biggest swing game has arrived.

We will have full coverage of Mark Stoops’ press conference on Monday before breaking down the second depth chart of the season. From there, practice reports and daily podcasts will take over as Saturday quickly approaches.

Over at KSR+, we will have our in-depth scouting report on South Carolina published on Thursday along with some more pregame content before the games finally start. It’s time to get this party started.

A pivotal game will take place at Kroger Field in Week 2.