Monday Huddle, presented by Eckrich: Another Home Swing Game

Kentucky has had time to heal up and complete some needed self-evaluation. Now it’s go-time at the Joe Craft Football Training Facility. This season could still be great. This season could still be horrible. A ton of scenarios — both good and bad — are still on the table. The record in swing games will tell the tale.

Another swing game will take place at Kroger Field on Saturday night. Kentucky has a chance to turn the tables against a heated rival. This is what college football is all about. KSR’s Monday Huddle is back to set the table for a monstrous late October conference game for both the Cats and the Vols. A lot is on the line.

But first, a message from our partners at Eckrich.

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Eckrich is proud to present the $1 Million Challenge for Teachers! This 2023 college football season Eckrich, in partnership with Extra Yard for Teachers and Kroger, will invite a local teacher (and true hero) onto the field at the Kentucky vs. Alabama game on November 11^th. 

The selected teacher, randomly selected from a list of nominations, will have a chance to throw a football through a target to win up to $1 million dollars in donations to fund local classroom projects and resources in their school and community. Nominate a teacher here for a chance to throw! Make sure to nominate your teacher by October 26^th.

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First Down: Battle of disappointing passing games

Heading into the 2023 season, both Kentucky and Tennessee had very high expectations. The Vols and the Wildcats each entered the season with a good amount of hype thanks to the potential on offense. The two SEC East programs had strong belief in their super senior quarterbacks.

Tennessee was hopeful that the Joe Milton III we saw in spot duty in 2022 would be the player they saw in 2023 and not the one from 2021. Kentucky believed that the Devin Leary from 2021 at NC State would be the player that the Wildcats would get in 2023.

That has not been the case. Tennessee (No. 98 in passing EPA/play, 91 in yards per attempt) and Kentucky (No. 103 in passing EPA/play, No. 83 in yards per attempt) are fielding two of the worst passing attacks in the SEC. The throw game is the main reason why each offense is currently playing at a level below expectations.

Both offenses are putting up strong rushing numbers. Ray Davis (781 rushing yards, 7.0 yards per rush, 8 touchdowns) and Jaylen Wright (593 rushing yards, 6.5 yards per rush, 1 touchdown) could very well end up being the two tailbacks on the first-team All-SEC team in December. However, each needs help from the passing game. As the schedule stiffens for both teams down the stretch, each offense needs its veteran quarterback and the surrounding pieces to play better.

In the 119th meeting of this rivalry on Saturday night, the team that gets better play from under center could have the upper hand. Defense is the best unit for both teams in this matchup, and establishing a consistent running game could be difficult for both offenses. Milton and Leary will each be asked to make plays in the pocket at Kroger Field.

The quarterback who plays better will likely be on the winning side.

Second Down: Limiting explosives

Joe Milton III has one of the worst explosive pass rates (11.2%) in college football, but this is still a Josh Heupel offense. The Vols are going to play with extreme spacing with stack formations to create switch releases and open up the vertical passing game with max protection. The Vols will take their swings on passes of 20-plus air yards.

Defensive coordinator Brad White has seen his secondary struggle to slow down this passing game two years in a row. Over the last eight quarters of football against the Vols, Kentucky has allowed a 75.6 percent completion rate, 12.5 yards per attempt, seven touchdowns, and no interceptions. Heupel’s passing game has shredded the Wildcats. That cannot happen again.

Through seven games, Milton is completing only 10 of 40 (25%) passes of 20-plus air yards with four touchdowns and four interceptions. Hendon Hooker completed 50 of 121 (41.3%) passes of 20-plus air yards for 23 touchdowns and two interceptions in two seasons as QB1 in this veer-and-shoot scheme. The Vols are not what they were the last two seasons on offense and that is the main reason why this unit has fallen to No. 67 in EPA/play.

In three games against top-50 defenses, Tennessee is averaging 18.7 points per game on 5.25 yards per play. The Vols are vulnerable on offense. If Kentucky can finally limit the passing game explosives in this matchup, it could be a long day. Tennessee should have a difficult time going on long, sustained touchdown drives against Kentucky’s defense.

Third Down: Matchup of sloppy football

Since Week 1, Kentucky has been a sloppy football team. I do not believe this is a hot take. The Wildcats have had untimely penalties on both offense and defense while also struggling to put four good quarters of football together. At this point, you have to expect some messy moments whenever this team takes the field.

Kentucky currently ranks No. 122 nationally in penalties per game (7.7). That’s ahead of only Tennessee (8.0) in the SEC. We should expect some sloppy football on Saturday night at Kroger Field.

There is no hiding from what is at stake on Saturday. Both of these fan bases do not like each other. That has trickled down to the team. Josh Heupel has a notable bad history with Bob Stoops after being fired at his alma mater. That allowed Oklahoma to hire Lincoln Riley. One could assume that the 45-year-old head coach takes this border series personally due to the family connection between Mark and Bob Stoops.

Add in the fact that each team already has two conference losses, and a lot is at stake. This will be an emotional game with an emotional crowd in the stands for a night kickoff. Both teams will hit adversity during the game. There will be huge swings in emotion. Whichever team handles adversity the best could have the edge in the football game.

The last time we saw Kentucky, they did not handle adversity well. After seeing things snowball against Georgia, the Wildcats crumbled in the fourth quarter against Missouri. If that happens again, a third consecutive loss will be coming.

Handling the emotions of this rivalry game will be critical in the true toss-up matchup. Both teams have proven that they struggle to play clean football. Some big mistakes will be made. Whichever team can bounce back and overcome their mistakes should have a great chance at winning.

Kentucky must find a way to play with some composure on Saturday night.

The week ahead at KSR

A huge game is on the slate for Week 8. One could argue that this is the biggest game of the season for Kentucky. The Wildcats still have a chance to have a great season in 2023, but things must get turned around right now. A sink/swim moment has arrived in a series where Kentucky has lost a ton of close games recently.

We have reached a significant moment in the season. How you feel about the 2023 Kentucky team likely hinges on the result of Saturday night’s game. KSR will be here throughout the week to help us all get ready for this big moment.

We will have full coverage of Mark Stoops’ press conference on Monday and will publish an updated depth chart once it goes live. From there, practice reports and daily podcasts will take over as Saturday quickly approaches.

Take advantage of the KSR+ BIG GAME SPECIAL to get bonus coverage of Kentucky vs. Tennessee, including live game threads, practice reports, an in-depth scouting report, and the latest recruiting intel. 50% off the annual price or $1 for 1 month.

Over at KSR+, we will be previewing the matchup all week before releasing a lengthy scouting report on Tennessee on Thursday, and some against-the-spread picks on Friday.

Can Kentucky finally get the series turned around against Tennessee? We’ll find out soon.