Monday Huddle: End of the Road

Kentucky has played four top-20 teams this season. The Wildcats are 0-4 in those games with three losses of 17-plus points. Those top-level offenses are averaging 42.7 points per game, and only two were in doubt in the fourth quarter. This will end up being the story of the 2023 season.

Yet, Kentucky is 6-0 in every other game with a trio of three-possession wins against SEC competition. Who exactly is Kentucky this season? In some ways, we are still trying to figure that out. In Week 12, they will travel to South Carolina to play their final conference game of the season. Will their trend against non-ranked teams continue?

KSR’s Monday Huddle is back to set the table for Kentucky’s 11th game of the season. The Wildcats are in a revenge spot against South Carolina. The Gamecocks are fighting for bowl eligibility after recording consecutive wins for the first time this season.

First Down: Another test for the passing defense

Kentucky’s passing defense is having a bad year. The current national ranks for the Wildcats are not pretty.

• Yards Per Attempt: 7.3 (No. 67 overall)
• EPA/Play: 0.05 (No. 82 overall)
• QB Rating: 138.45 (No. 89 overall)
• Success Rate: 46.4% (No. 122 overall)
• Completion Percentage: 66.3% (No. 123 overall)

Kentucky has smothered some inferior offenses, but Joe Milton III (85% completion percentage, 11.4 yards per attempt) had his best game of the year against the Wildcats. Carson Beck threw for a career-high 389 yards. Jalen Milroe averaged over 10 yards per attempt and accumulated six total touchdowns. Brady Cook posted a super-efficient success rate (55.2%).

What happens this week again versus another good passing game?

South Carolina enters Week 12 ranked inside the top 40 in EPA/play, success rate, completion percentage, yards per attempt, and QB rating. The Gamecocks are not as dangerous as Alabama, Georgia, or Missouri. But this could be a good comp to Florida.

Back in Week 5, the Wildcats handled a dink-and-dunk Florida offense by stopping the run and getting some pressure on Graham Mertz. If Kentucky can do the same to Spencer Rattler, a similar performance could follow, but that is hard to envision that occurring.

Rattler (70.6% completion percentage, 8.4 yards per attempt on 34.0 throws per game, 21 total touchdowns, 7 interceptions) is having a good season despite having no running game (No. 122 in rushing success rate) and porous pass protection (9.1% sack rate). To beat Carolina, Kentucky must slow down the former Oklahoma transfer.

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— Gamecock Football (@GamecockFB) November 11, 2023

If Kentucky’s pass defense has a good game, this could be a double-digit win. If the pass defense has a bad performance, Kentucky could finish with another losing record in SEC play.

Second Down: Offense might need to lead the way

Kentucky’s offense has played seven power conference defenses with South Carolina and Louisville remaining on the schedule. The Wildcats — with some help from the defense — are averaging 26.3 points per game and 5.61 yards per play. This offense has taken a step forward under Liam Coen, but they might need to do more.

South Carolina’s passing game will be a tough challenge for Kentucky’s defense. Louisville has explosive offensive balance with Jack Plummer averaging over nine yards per attempt and star tailback Jawhar Jordan averaging 6.9 yards per rush. Getting a bunch of stops in both games to close out the season could be difficult.

Kentucky will need to score some points to win games. That means having some offensive balance.

The Wildcats still need more consistency from the passing game after showing some signs of life since the bye week. However, the run game has all but disappeared. Take out Ramon Jefferson‘s sprint of 74 yards in garbage time against Alabama, and Kentucky’s traditional run game has been putrid ever since the bye. Ray Davis has had one explosive run (10-plus yards) in 49 carries since the bye week. Kentucky must find some answers.

Points will be needed to get wins in the next two weeks. Kentucky could need a couple of 30-plus points performances to close the regular season. The Wildcats need consistency from the passing game and some more explosive play pop from the ground attack. Hopefully, Jefferson’s big run was a sign of things to come in the last two weeks.

Third Down: Beamer Ball

South Carolina has taken a step back in year three under Shane Beamer. The Gamecocks will be an underdog in their final two games, and finishing 4-8 is 100 percent on the table just one year after a 8-5 breakthrough season. Regardless, a big offseason is coming for this program where some big personnel changes could be made.

Despite their struggles, South Carolina’s identity in the third phase has not gone away.

The Gamecocks executed a successful onside kick in Week 1. Punter Kai Kroeger has thrown the ball twice on a pair of fake punts. Mitch Jeter has drilled 11 of 13 field goals. Kroeger has Carolina ranked No. 30 in net punting average.

South Carolina can flip a game in the third phase. Kentucky’s third phase must be on high alert throughout the game against a group that is willing to try anything in the kicking game to gain an advantage.

Swinging gate formation on PAT, fake field goals, fake punts, overloads for punt block, and reverses on punts. Everything is on the table this week. Jay Boulware must have his special teams unit ready for the unexpected this week.

The week ahead at KSR

Kentucky got drilled by top-10 Alabama on Saturday afternoon on Senior Day. There is no getting around that. Now the Wildcats must respond to end the season versus two opponents where the betting could end up right around a field goal in each contest. There are a pair of toss-up games on the schedule, and they will determine whether this season is a massive disappointment or not.

This football team still has a lot on the line.

KSR will be here throughout the week to preview what is an important matchup between Kentucky and South Carolina. The Wildcats are looking to save a season, and the Gamecocks are scratching and clawing for bowl eligibility. A busy week is ahead.

We will have full coverage of Mark Stoops’ press conference on Monday and will publish an updated depth chart once it goes live. From there, practice reports and daily podcasts will take over as Saturday quickly approaches. We will also be dropping some SEC bowl projections on Wednesday after a chalky Week 11.

Over at KSR+, we will be previewing the matchup all week before releasing a lengthy scouting report on South Carolina on Thursday, and some against-the-spread picks on Friday.

Can Kentucky bounce back after another disappointing loss? We’ll find out Saturday under the lights at Williams-Brice Stadium.