Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest Odds, Preview

July 4th is almost here, and you know what that means: the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest. Tomorrow, the world’s top competitive eaters will descend upon the corner of Surf and Stillwell Avenues in Coney Island in pursuit of the yellow and pink mustard belts. The women’s competition streams on the ESPN app at 10:45 a.m. ET while the men’s competition begins at noon ET on ESPN2 and the ESPN app.

On the men’s side, Joey “Jaw” Chestnut is going for his eighth straight title, 16th overall, while Miki Sudo is looking to add her ninth championship in the women’s competition. Both hold the world records, with Chestnut eating 76 hot dogs during the ten-minute period in 2021, and Sudo eating 48.5 in 2020. Chestnut holds the ten highest totals in the event, eating more than 70 dogs and buns six times. If you add up the total length of hot dogs eaten by Chestnut since his first contest in 2005, it’s 648 feet, over twice the height of the Statue of Liberty.

KSR has been covering the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest for over a decade. Tomorrow, we’ll have a running thread on KSBoard but let’s get the party started early with the latest odds from Bovada (because of course you can bet on this).

Men’s Outright Winner

• Joey Chestnut: -3500
• Geoffrey Esper: +900
• Any Other: +1200
• Darron Breeden: +1800
• Nick Wehry: +2000
• James Webb: +2500
• Gideon Oji: +3500

Women’s Outright Winner

• Miki Sudo: -4000
• Michelle Lesco: +1600
• Any Other: +1200

Joey Chestnut Total Hot Dogs Eaten

• Over 69.5: -225
• Under 69.5: +160

• Over 72.5: -110
• 72.5 Or Under: -130

Miki Sudo Total Hot Dogs Eaten

• Over 44.5: -130
• 44.5 Or Under: -110

Chestnut and Sudo Combined Total Hot Dogs Eaten

• Over 116.5: +165
• 116.5 Or Under: -240

Will A ‘Reversal Of Fortune’ Occur?

• Yes: +650
• No: -1400

2023 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Storylines

— Last year, Joey Chestnut overcame some obstacles to win his 15th mustard belt. Not only was he on crutches due to a ruptured leg tendon, he took down an animal rights protestor that got on stage during the competition. While Chestnut was in the middle of eating his 18th dog, a man in a Darth Vader mask managed to get in between him and Geoffrey Esper to hold a sign up to the cameras. Chestnut put him in a headlock until security stepped in.

Chestnut just obliterated him🤣🤣 pic.twitter.com/dry7Oy8KZK

— jonah block (@JonahBlock05) July 4, 2022

Because of that, there are odds this year on whether or not a protestor will once again get on stage (Yes: +450, No: -850).

— Both Chesnut and Sudo vowed to break their world records at today’s weigh-in.

“I’m going to be sweating, it’s not going to be pretty, but I’m going to do whatever it takes to get those dogs down and break that record,” Chestnut said after weighing in at 225 lbs.

“Last year I was really disappointed with my own number, so let’s send that 40 out of the water, past my personal best of 48, and get it over 50,” Sudo said after weighing in at 131 pounds.

— Geoffrey Esper is Chestnut’s toughest competition. He finished second to Chestnut in 2021 and 2022, last year totaling 51 dogs, a dozen fewer than Chestnut. Last month, Esper won his third straight Mattituck Lions Club World Strawberry Shortcake Eating Championship, eating 21 pounds of strawberry shortcake in 8 minutes. The 48-year-old is the 2017 and 2019 Hooters wing-eating Champion and the champion of the Fortune Bay Indian Taco and the Jack’s Donuts Donut Holes. He holds several competitive eating records, including SPAM, chicken wings, corn dogs, brats, pizza, sloppers, and more.

— Weather can also have an impact on the contest. High humidity and dewpoints can slow down eaters. The forecast for tomorrow at noon in Coney Island is 79 degrees and partly cloudy, with a humidity of 80% and a dewpoint of 73 degrees. On the dewpoint meter (lovingly borrowed from Nashville Severe Weather), that is considered “oppressive”:

So, it’s gonna be hot and sticky.

Join us as we cover the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest in the most ridiculous manner possible on KSBoard starting around 11:45 a.m. ET on Tuesday.