National Media Predictions for Kentucky vs. Illinois

Kentucky is one win away from the Sweet 16. The seed line says the Cats should win, but they’re underdogs in Las Vegas against Illinois.

The two teams have met 15 times, but not since 1984 when Sam Bowie tallied a double-double and Melvin Turpin scored a team-high 13 points to eke out a 54-51 win that sent the Cats to the Final Four. Kentucky has an 11-4 advantage in this series. Will they get to a dozen Ws? KSR has scoured the internet to find predictions from college basketball analysts across the country.

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ESPN College GameDay

Kentucky has not shaken the injury bug. That’s one reason why Seth Greenberg isn’t confident in the Cats. Lamont Butler won’t have enough in the tank to slow down Illinois.

“Can Lamont Butler disrupt Jakucionis at the point of attack? That’s really what it’s going to come down to. If he can, all of a sudden, this is a different Illinois offense. If he can’t, and that guy can turn the corner, look over the defense, spray it around and get easy shots for Illinois, that’s going to be a factor,” said Greenberg.

Greenberg picked Illinois to win on College GameDay. Jay Bilas believes Kentucky is going to score and has enough defense to slow down Illinois and advance to the Sweet 16.

“I’m going to go with Kentucky in this game. I think Kentucky is the better offensive team and I think they’re going to bring enough defensively,” said Bilas. “I wouldn’t be surprised to see Lamont Butler on Kylan Boswell and Otega Oweh to take Jakucionis. I like Kentucky.”

The Athletic: Kentucky Advances to the Sweet 16

The Athletic surveyed 24 of its writers and editors ahead of the NCAA Tournament. By the narrowest of margins, 11 picked Kentucky to survive, while 10 selected Illinois to advance. Kentucky only received four votes to reach the Elite Eight.

Action Network: Pick-and-Roll Defense will Cost Kentucky

Most of the attention on this game is centered around Illinois’ ability to make shots. Are they the team that has made better than 37% of its threes over the last five games, or the team that shot 30% from Big Ten play? Tanner McGrath is banking on the Fighting Illini to beat Kentucky in the pick-and-roll and is taking Illinois moneyline.

“Kentucky’s ball-screen coverage defense is borderline atrocious (.94 PPP allowed, 20th percentile, per Synergy), and the Wildcats allow plenty of jumpers over the top (44% 3-point rate allowed, 318th nationally, per KenPom),” writes McGrath.

“So, Illinois should be able to run its spread pick-and-roll attack uninhibited — few teams nationally run those sets more than Illinois (33 possessions per game, second nationally behind Wyoming, per Synergy). At its best, the Kasparas Jakucionis–Tomislav Ivisic ball-screen sets are unstoppable.”

Field of 68: Illinois is Too Much

You can feel the recency bias when watching the Field of 68 break down today’s game. Illinois was so impressive in the win over Xavier, that the crew has to ride with the Fighting Illini.

“This team has been up-down, up-down all year and they’re coming off one of their better performances of the season and if they can get to the Sweet 16, they’re dangerous,” said Jeff Goodman.

He added, “Kentucky, you still look at them and they don’t blow you away. Illinois, you look at what they just did, and you’re like, ‘Holy S***!’ If Will Riley plays like that, if Kylan Boswell plays like that again, it shouldn’t even be close because there’s only one guy Illinois should be scared of, Otega Oweh. He’s the one guy that you gotta gameplan for.”

Rob Dauster disagreed with Goodman. Even though he’s leaning Illinois, Dauster believes Mark Pope’s offense will pose problems for Illinois, and Kentucky’s best defenders match up well against the No. 6 seed.