NC State Numbers of Interest

North Carolina State makes for an interesting study. A quick glance at its ten-game ACC schedule shows that the Pack dodged Clemson and Notre Dame while losing to No. 13 North Carolina and No. 18 Miami. NC State’s best win was a 15-14 victory over then-No. 21 Liberty. That game’s outcome was decided when the Wolfpack blocked a late field goal in the fourth quarter. Here are some numbers of interest: 

8 — The Wolfpack enters the Gator Bowl with an 8-3 record. NC State took care of business against mediocre ACC opponents. The only exception came in a 45-24 loss to a 5-5 Virginia Tech team. Its +1.4 scoring margin indicates that the Wolfpack won several close games. As written above, Liberty is its most quality win. Pitt (6-5) was the only opponent with a winning record that NC State defeated other than Liberty. North Carolina State’s seven conference wins were against the ACC’s bottom feeders. 

31.1 — The number of points that NC State is scoring per game. The Pack has scored 44 touchdowns and made 12 field goals in 2020. Kentucky is allowing 26.4 points per contest. Bowl games are normally high-scoring affairs. NC State has the advantage if the Gator Bowl turns into a track meet. 

29.7 — Points allowed per game by the NC State defense. It’s allowed 39 touchdowns and 18 field goals. This category is advantage NC State. UK is averaging just 21.1 points per game. 

163 –– The Wolfpack allowed 163 rush yards per game in 2020. Opponents averaged 4.08 yards per carry and scored 18 touchdowns on the ground. The Wildcats run for 187.4 yards per contest. Advantage Kentucky but with a caveat. NC State lives off the tackle for loss. UK has struggled when getting behind the chains. First down plays will be telling. The Wildcats can’t live in 3rd and 8+. 

29 — NC State allowed 29 QB sacks this season. NC State is surrendering 2.6 QB sacks per game. Kentucky totaled 12 QB sacks in 2020, just over one per game. Comparatively, the Wolfpack has recorded 32 QB sacks in 2020. Advantage NC State. However, UK’s pass rushers will have opportunities in Jacksonville. 

-3 — NC State comes into the game with a -3 turnover margin. State intercepted 10 passes and recovered 3 fumbles in 2020. It also lost 4 fumbles and threw 12 interceptions. Mark Stoops’ team has a +7 turnover ratio. Significant advantage for the Cats. UK will need to force turnovers in order to win. This category could be the deciding factor in the game’s outcome. 

44.3% — The Pack converted 44.3% on 3rd down. UK’s opponents converted 42.6% on the money down in 2020. Brad White’s defense is a “Bend, Don’t Break” scheme that gives up 3rd down conversions in the middle portion of the field. It then has tightened up in the Red Zone. UK will need to force this game to be played in a phone booth. 

108/11.5 — Payton Wilson’s total tackles and tackles for loss. The redshirt sophomore Will linebacker leads the team in both categories. NC State’s 3-3-5 defense relies upon creating havoc. Wilson leads the way in that category. He also registered 3.5 QB sacks and intercepted two passes. 

3-3-5 — Is the defensive scheme that the Wolfpack utilizes. It features 3 defensive linemen, 3 linebackers and 5 defensive backs. The 3-3-5 will get plenty of discussion prior to January 2. In summary, it’s a system that is multiple and relies on speed and is used to counter the modern-day spread offenses. It’s aggressive by nature. Rarely utilized, the 3-3-5 is normally used by teams that lack size along the defensive front. An eight-man box is usual, especially on first downs. NC State will want to dictate the chains. Forcing UK into 3rd and long will be a priority. Defensive coordinator Tony Gibson successfully ran the 3-3-5 at West Virginia prior to his stay with the Pack. 

The 3-3-5’s intent is to cause pre-snap confusion for quarterbacks and centers. It also focuses on overwhelming the box. Gibson frequents the blitz and runs man-to-man coverage. Tackles for loss and other disruptive havoc plays are systematic goals. Third down is the scheme’s preferred occasion to be exotic. The Wolfpack has held opponents to 38% on 3rd down. 

The 3-3-5 would be more utilized if it was the greatest defense ever invented. It’s not and rare for a reason. It’s high-risk, high-reward. However, UK has struggled against this scheme. Due to Kentucky’s lack of explosive playmakers, NC State has the decided advantage. 

12/8 — Bailey Hockman’s touchdown-to-interception ratio. Hockman completed 64 percent of his passes for 1,820 yards. He averages 8.1 yards per pass attempt. Kentucky’s pass defense has been opportunistic. It’s picked off 13 passes and is tied for 1st in the Southeastern Conference. This column refers back to the turnover margin. It’s vital for the Cats to force turnovers in the passing game.  

85 — Tackles for loss is the Wolfpack’s season total. That mark is good enough for 6th in the nation. Broken record here. Offenses succeed vs. the 3-3-5 if it has playmakers that force the defense to unload the box and can win one-on-one matchups vs. man coverage. That has not been a UK offensive strength. Chris Rodriguez and AJ Rose will be aggravated at the line of scrimmage. There will be negative plays. But, if a run pops, it can result in an explosive play. The Wolfpack has a serious advantage in this category if UK pass catchers can’t influence safeties and create down-field separation. 

32 — NC State has registered 32 QB sacks this season. Havoc is a theme with this 3-3-5 defense. Again, Kentucky cannot live in sure-passing downs. The Pack will blitz and do so from every imaginable fashion. 

2 — Number of consecutive bowl victories for Kentucky. The Cats beat Penn State in the 2018 Citrus Bowl and defeated Virginia Tech in the Belk Bowl a year ago. 

1 – The Gator Bowl is the last game for both programs. It only takes one time to be the best team on January 2 in order to bring home the Gator Bowl Championship Trophy. 

WHAT DOES ALL THIS MEAN?

NC State beat a bunch of ordinary ACC opponents in 2020. This can be looked upon as a negative, but not to me. The sign of a good team is that it takes care of business against opponents that it should beat. The Pack did just that. Plus, its win over Liberty looks even better after the Flames took down previously undefeated Coastal Carolina. Remember, don’t be logo fooled. Liberty is a darn good football team. So is NC State. 

Bowl games are weird. 2020 is atypical. Turnovers will factor in the Gator Bowl’s outcome. So will the “Give a Crap Meter” that measures which team most wants to be playing football in January. Kentucky needs a win in order to better its 4-6 record and have positive momentum going into a critical offseason that will feature a much needed revamped offensive scheme. NC State has enjoyed a nice, but not great season. This game is a toss-up at best. The game will be close if UK wins. The Gator Bowl could get ugly if NC State gets the W. 

I don’t like how the Wolfpack has the sizable advantage in tackles for loss (85-50). For comparative purposes, NC State has recorded eleven more TFLs than the SEC’s leader, Alabama. Nor do I favor how NC State will stack the box against the run and dare the Cats to throw the football. NC State sacked the quarterback on 32 occasions this season. That could be a problem. Kentucky has significantly struggled in the passing game and enters the Gator Bowl ranked last in the SEC after averaging 124 pass yards per game. I do like that UK will have a new play caller in Vince Marrow to go along with fresh sets of eyes in preparation leading up to the Gator Bowl. The Cats’ unpredictability is an advantage.  

The Gator Bowl will feature the No. 23 8-3 Wolfpack vs. 4-6 Kentucky, and the latter is a three-point favorite. So 2020.