KSR's 2023 NCAA Tournament Midwest Region Preview

March Madness is finally here. Since the bracket came out 24 hours ago, the KSR crew has been hard at work previewing each region of the 2023 NCAA Tournament. We’ll wrap things up with the Midwest Region, which has a very Texas feel to it. Who will make it to Kansas City, and eventually, Houston? Let’s take a look.

Previous Previews: East Region, South Region, West Region

The Midwest Region Schedule

Tuesday, March 14

• 9:10 PM | truTV | Dayton: No. 11 Mississippi State vs. No. 11 Pittsburgh

Thursday, March 16

• 6:50 PM | TNT | Birmingham: No. 8 Iowa vs. No. 9 Auburn
• 7:25 PM | TBS | Des Moines: No. 2 Texas vs. No. 15 Colgate
• 9:20 PM | TNT | Birmingham: No. 1 Houston vs. No. 16 Northern Kentucky
• 9:55 PM | TBS | Des Moines: No. 7 Texas A&M vs. No. 10 Penn State

Friday, March 17

• 12:40 PM | truTV | Greensboro: No. 3 Xavier vs. No. 14 Kennesaw State
• 3:10 PM | truTV | Greensboro: No. 6 Iowa State vs. No. 11 Mississippi State/Pitt
• 7:25 PM | TBS | Albany: No. 5 Miami vs. No. 12 Drake
• 9:55 PM | TBS | Albany: No. 4 Indiana vs. No. 13 Kent State

The Bracket

Efficiency Rankings

Using the pre-tournament numbers at KenPom, here is how the region ranks overall via adjusted efficiency.

1. Houston (No. 11 offense, No. 4 defense)
6. Texas (No. 18 offense, No. 11 defense)
16. Xavier (No. 9 offense, No. 70 defense)
23. Iowa State (No. 96 offense, No. 8 defense)
25. Texas A&M (No. 30 offense, No. 37 defense)
29. Auburn (No. 48 offense, No. 29 defense)
30. Indiana (No. 27 offense, No. 43 defense)
37. Iowa (No. 3 offense, No. 167 defense)
39. Penn State (No. 17 offense, No. 101 defense)
40. Miami (No. 12 offense, No. 132 defense)
49. Mississippi State (No. 164 offense, No. 6 defense)
66. Drake (No. 98 offense, No. 44 defense)
71. Kent State (No. 110 offense, No. 38 defense)
77. Pitt (No. 24 offense, No. 142 defense)
114. Colgate (No. 44 offense, No. 231 defense)
127. Kennesaw State (No. 153 offense, No. 116 defense)
161. Northern Kentucky (No. 217 offense, No. 121 defense)

Odds to Win the Midwest Region

Houston	31/20	(+155)
Texas	3/1	(+300)
Xavier	8/1	(+800)
Iowa State	10/1	(+1000)
Indiana	12/1	(+1200)
Auburn	16/1	(+1600)
Miami FL	16/1	(+1600)
Texas A&M	16/1	(+1600)
Iowa	20/1	(+2000)
Penn State	35/1	(+3500)
Drake	50/1	(+5000)
Kent State	50/1	(+5000)
Mississippi State	50/1	(+5000)
Pittsburgh	80/1	(+8000)
Colgate	200/1	(+20000)
Kennesaw State	200/1	(+20000)
Northern Kentucky	300/1	(+30000)

The Midwest Region Favorite: Houston

Houston has the best odds to win the entire tournament, but AAC Player of the Year Marcus Sasser‘s groin injury looms large. Sasser, who missed last year’s Elite Eight run with a foot injury, strained his groin against Cincinnati in the AAC Tournament semifinals on Saturday. Head coach Kelvin Sampson held him out of the finals vs. Memphis. If Sasser can go this week, Houston shouldn’t have too much trouble with the top half of the bracket — even if we’ll all be cheering for Northern Kentucky to pull off the upset. Auburn has been super inconsistent this year, but if the Tigers make it past Iowa into the second round, the home crowd in Birmingham could make No. 1 Houston vs. No. 9 Auburn interesting.

I’m cheering for Sasser to play at least by the Elite Eight round so we get a chance to see No. 1 Houston vs. No. 2 Texas, one of the hottest teams in the country. The Longhorns have a tough draw though, potentially facing No. 7 Texas A&M in the second round and No. 3 Xavier in the Sweet 16.

Upset Special: No. 13 Kent State over No. 4 Indiana

Not only do I not trust Indiana, there’s a fun storyline here. Kent State’s coach is Rob Senderoff, who was punished by the NCAA for violations that happened while he was on Kelvin Sampson’s staff at Indiana. In addition to an awesome nickname, the Golden Flashes only lost to Houston by five, Gonzaga by seven, and Charleston by two this season. I’ll be cheering for them to send the Hoosiers home.

No. 12 Drake over No. 5 Miami is another trendy upset pick in this region. A No. 13 vs. No. 12 second-round game would be fun; however, I’d rather see Indiana lose in the first round than Miami, so I’m going with No. 13 Kent State as my Midwest Cinderlla.

Seeding Snub: No. 7 Texas A&M

One of the biggest surprises of the selection show was seeing Texas A&M as a No. 7 seed. The committee not including the Aggies in the field last year was the ultimate snub, but they are way underseeded this go around. Buzz Williams’ group was a projected No. 5 seed headed into Sunday; instead, they’ll likely face No. 2 Texas in the second round, a rivalry game we’re all rooting to see. But the committee doesn’t seed based on storylines, right?

Midwest Region Prediction: Texas

The Longhorns have a tough draw but they are battle-tested, cruising through the Big 12 Tournament with relative ease. Marcus Sasser’s health has me worried about Houston getting to Houston, so give me the Longhorns to advance to the Final Four.