Midwest Region Preview: Taking a closer look at Kentucky's path to the Final Four

Welcome to March Madness, Big Blue Nation. For the first time under Mark Pope, Kentucky will be playing in the Big Dance and will be doing it as the No. 3 seed in the Midwest. A potential run to the program’s 18th Final Four starts now.

Everyone’s favorite postseason starts this week. KSR is taking a closer look at UK’s region to see who is in it and what the outlook is for the Wildcats entering the 2025 NCAA Tournament.

The bracket

1.) Houston vs 16.) SIU Edwardsville

8.) Gonzaga vs. 9.) Georgia

5.) Clemson vs. 12.) McNeese

4.) Purdue vs. 13.) High Point

6.) Illinois vs. 11.) Texas/Xavier

3.) Kentucky vs. 14.) Troy

7.) UCLA vs. 10.) Utah State

2.) Tennessee vs. 15.) Wofford

The schedule

Wednesday

Time (ET)	Game	TV / Stream
9:10 p.m.	(11) Xavier vs. (11) Texas Spero Dedes // Jim Spanarkel // Jon Rothstein	truTV

Thursday

Time (ET)	Game	TV
12:40 p.m.	(13) High Point vs. (4) Purdue Andrew Catalon / Steve Lappas // Evan Washburn	truTV
2 p.m.	(16) SIU Edwardsville vs. (1) Houston Tom McCarthy | Deb Antonelli, Steve Smith || AJ Ross	TBS
3:15 p.m.	(12) McNeese vs. (5) Clemson Andrew Catalon / Steve Lappas // Evan Washburn	truTV
4:35 p.m.	(9) Georgia vs. (8) Gonzaga Tom McCarthy | Deb Antonelli, Steve Smith || AJ Ross	TBS
6:50 p.m.	(15) Wofford vs. (2) Tennessee Brian Anderson / Jim Jackson // Allie LaForce	TNT
9:25 p.m.	(10) Utah State vs. (7) UCLA Brian Anderson / Jim Jackson // Allie LaForce	TNT

Friday

Time (ET)	Game	TV
7:10 p.m.	(14) Troy vs. (3) Kentucky Kevin Harlan / Dan Bonner, Stan Van Gundy // Lauren Shehadi	CBS
9:45 p.m.	(11) Xavier/Texas vs. (6) Illinois Kevin Harlan / Dan Bonner, Stan Van Gundy // Lauren Shehadi	CBS

Efficiency rankings

Using the pre-tournament numbers at KenPom, here is how the region ranks overall via adjusted efficiency.

Team	Overall	Offense	Defense
Houston (1)	3	10	2
Tennessee (2)	5	18	3
Gonzaga (8)	9	9	29
Kentucky (3)	16	8	56
Clemson (5)	18	24	16
Purdue (4)	19	7	63
Illinois (6)	20	15	41
UCLA (7)	27	35	17
Georgia (9)	34	54	26
Xavier (11)	43	52	44
Texas (11)	44	37	57
Utah State (10)	52	17	149
McNeese (12)	59	63	66
High Point (13)	84	25	227
Troy (14)	98	153	71
Wofford (15)	120	67	231
SIU Edwardsville (16)	217	255	160

Team capsules

1.) Houston

The Big 12 regular season and tournament champion has won 30 games in four consecutive seasons under Kelvin Sampson, and has made the second weekend in five consecutive tournaments. Houston has its best offense this season under Sampson. Former Baylor transfer LJ Cryer is averaging at least 15 points per game and shooting 40-plus percent from three for the third time. The Cougars are bonafide national championship contender.

2.) Tennessee

Rick Barnes has his fourth consecutive top-10 team at Tennessee. The Vols have made it to the second weekend in consecutive seasons and are again doing it with defense in 2025. However, this is the best offense that Tennessee has had since 2019. This is a program that is still looking for its first Final Four berth.

3.) Kentucky

Houston and Tennessee are defense-first. Kentucky is offense-first. In their first season under Mark Pope, UK is playing pace-and-space basketball. The Cats earned a No. 3 seed with a 22-11 record due to a bunch of high-end wins. Injuries have been the story of UK’s season but this is a team that can beat anyone when the offense is humming.

4.) Purdue

Purdue has now earned a protected seed in eight consecutive tournaments. The Boilermakers have taken a step back after last year’s national runner-up finish but guard Braden Smith might be the best player in this region. This Big Ten squad is just 5-6 since February.

5.) Clemson

The Tigers have one of the best teams in program history just one year after making it to the Elite Eight. Brad Brownell‘s squad has terrific balance and finished ACC play with a 19-3 record. The Tigers play slow, but Chase Hunter is a terrific go-to guard, and the frontline of Ian Schieffelin and Viktor Lakhin can cause some problems.

6.) Illinois

The second Big Ten team in the bracket is fresh off an Elite Eight appearance in 2024. Brad Underwood is in year eight in Champaign and is looking for his second Sweet 16 appearance. The Illini rank in the top 20 in adjusted pace but the struggled to shoot the ball (No. 316 in three-point field goal percentage). Illinois is just 3-8 against top-20 KenPom teams with the last win coming before Christmas.

7.) UCLA

Mick Cronin has led UCLA to the second weekend each time the former Cincinnati head coach has gotten the Bruins into the Big Dance. This team plays extremely slow (No. 301 in adjusted pace) and doesn’t shoot a ton of threes. The Bruins force turnovers at a high rate and want to win games with defense. Oregon State transfer Tyler Bilodeau is a unique weapon as a stretch big (13.6 points per game, 40.2% from three).

8.) Gonzaga

Despite tremendous predictive metrics, Gonzaga will be starting the NCAA Tournament in the 8 vs. 9 game due to the lack of high-end wins. The Bulldogs again have a top-10 offense and can hammer defenses with two-point shooting. Ryan Nembhard ranks No. 5 nationally in assist rate. The Bulldogs can score and are battle tested. This could be a dangerous second-round opponent.

9.) Georgia

Mike White has Georgia dancing for the first time in a decade. The Bulldogs play with two bigs at all times, struggle with ball secruity, and don’t shoot a ton of threes. UGA wants to play bully ball with offensive rebounds and free throw rate on offense. The defense is solid. This is a team that can be dangerous if perimeter shots are falling.

10.) Utah State

In year one under head coach Jerrod Calhoun, Utah State is elite on offense (No. 21 in effective field goal percentage) but struggles mightily on defense (No. 232 in effective field goal percentage allowed). The Aggies play small ball and will have only one player on the floor taller than 6-foot-5 for a lot of possessions.

11.) Texas

Rodney Terry has Texas back in the NCAA Tournament with a 19-15 record as the Horns benefitted from playing in the SEC. This is a team with some top-end talent highlighted by freshman sensation Tre Johnson (19.8 points, 3.0 rebounds, 2.8 assists). Texas went 4-8 in its final 12 games before the tournament.

11.) Xavier

Sean Miller has Xavier back in the tournament for the second time in three years. The Musketeers were in big trouble at 9-7 but finished the season 12-4 with seven consecutive wins before the Big East Tournament. This is one of the best three-point shooting teams (No. 6 nationally in three-point field goal percentage) in the field. Indiana State transfer Ryan Conwell (16.8 points, 41.8% three-point shooting) can take over games.

12.) McNeese

Former VCU and LSU head coach Will Wade has the Southland Conference twice in two seasons at McNeese. The Cowboys have won 11 consecutive games, attack the offensive glass, and force turnovers on defense. This is a team without much size but they played both Alabama and Mississippi State close in the non-conference.

13.) High Point

The Panthers have won 14 consecutive games under head coach Alan Huss to secure the program’s first NCAA Tournament bid. High Point is outstanding on offense but struggles on the defensive end. This is a team that has not faced a power conference program all season.

14.) Troy

Scott Cross has Troy in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2017. The Trojans are a defense-first unit who really does a good job of protecting the paint and forcing turnovers. However, there will likely be a high volume of three-point looks available. This offense can struggle if it cannot find second chance points off offensive rebounds.

15.) Wofford

The Terriers are back in the tournament for the sixth time in the last 16 seasons. Head coach Dwight Perry oversees a three-point heavy offense and a defense with some clear limitations. This team was a surprise winner as a No. 6 seed in the SoCon Tournament.

16.) SIU Edwardsville

This is a program dancing for the first time after transitioning from Division II in 2009. The Cougars upset Southeast Missouri in the Ohio Valley Tournament. This is a team that plays at a slow pace and has some pretty big issues shooting the basketball. Defense leads the way for SIUE.

Odds

How does Vegas see this region shaking out? Houston is the heavy favorite at FanDuel with Kentucky having the fourth-best odds.

Is Gonzaga a live dog?

Team	Odds to win the Midwest
Houston	+140
Tennessee	+370
Gonzaga	+850
Kentucky	+900
Illinois	+900
Purdue	12/1
Clemson	15/1
UCLA	21/1
Georgia	95/1
Xavier	100/1
Texas	100/1
McNeese	100/1
Utah State	110/1
SIUE	250/1
Troy	250/1
High Point	250/1
Wofford	250/1