NCAA Tournament Resume: It's Crunch Time for Kentucky

It may not feel like it after another 1-1 week (and the news about Jaxson Robinson), but Kentucky’s NCAA Tournament resume is still in decent shape with 13 days until Selection Sunday. However, this week is huge.

After the win at Oklahoma and the loss to Auburn, the Cats are No. 15 in the NET Rankings, down just three spots from this time last week. Auburn remains the No. 1 team in the NET (and pretty much everything). Duke, Houston, Florida, and Tennessee round out the top five, with Alabama coming in at No. 6 and Gonzaga at No. 8. Kentucky has wins over four of those teams, another reason the Cats are still trending as a No. 3 or No. 4 seed in Bracketology. While Kentucky has lost seven of its last 12 games, just one of those losses (Arkansas) is outside of Quad 1. The SEC giveth and the SEC taketh away.

Speaking of quads, let’s talk team sheet, which the Selection Committee will use as it determines the Cats’ seed in the NCAA Tournament. Both games last week were in Quad 1, Wednesday’s win at Oklahoma in Quad 1B, and the loss to Auburn in Quad 1A. Kentucky has nine Quad 1 wins, which is the third most in the country behind Auburn (16) and Alabama, Tennessee, and Michigan State (10). Unfortunately, the Cats’ nine Quad 1 losses are the most of that group and the most of any team ahead of them in the NET.

Kentucky can close the regular season with a Quad 1 win at Missouri, but much more important is Tuesday night’s game vs. LSU, which falls in Quad 3. The Cats cannot afford to lose that one.

Let’s break it all down.

• Quad 1: 9-9 (Games Remaining: 1)
  • Quad 1A: 6-7
  • Quad 1B: 3-2
• Quad 2: 1-1 (Games Remaining: 0)
• Quad 3: 3-0 (Games Remaining: 1)
• Quad 4: 6-0 (Games Remaining: 0)

Quad 1: 9-9

Quad 1: Home: 1-30 | Neutral: 1-50 | Away: 1-75

Quad 1A	Home: 1-15	Neutral 1-25	Away 1-40
NET Ranking	Date	Opponent	Result
1	03/01/2025	Auburn	L 78-94
2	11/12/2024	Duke (Champions Classic)	W 77-72
4	01/04/2025	Florida	W 106-100
5	01/28/2025	@ Tennessee	W 78-73
5	02/11/2025	Tennessee	W 75-64
6	02/22/2025	@ Alabama	L 83-96
6	01/18/2025	Alabama	L 97-102
8	12/07/2024	Gonzaga (Seattle)	W 90-89 (1 OT)
13	03/08/2025	@ Missouri
21	12/03/2024	@ Clemson	L 66-70
28	02/04/2025	@ Ole Miss	L 84-98
30	01/11/2025	@ Mississippi St.	W 95-90
33	01/07/2025	@ Georgia	L 69-82
37	01/25/2025	@ Vanderbilt	L 69-74
Quad 1B	Home 16-30	Neutral 26-50	Away 41-75
NET Ranking	Date	Opponent	Result
23	01/14/2025	Texas A&M	W 81-69
24	12/14/2024	Louisville	W 93-85
36	12/21/2024	Ohio State (CBS Sports Classic)	L 65-85
46	02/15/2025	@ Texas	L 78-82
53	02/26/2025	@ Oklahoma	W 83-82

Quad 2: 1-1

Home: 31-75 | Neutral: 51-100 | Away: 76-135

NET Ranking	Date	Opponent	Result
37	02/19/2025	Vanderbilt	W 82-61
47	02/01/2025	Arkansas	L 79-89

Quad 3: 3-0

Home: 76-160 | Neutral: 101-200 | Away: 136-240

NET Ranking	Date	Opponent	Result
84	03/04/2025	LSU
87	11/19/2024	Lipscomb	W 97-68
88	02/08/2025	South Carolina	W 80-57
146	11/26/2024	Western Ky.	W 87-68

Quad 4: 6-0

Home: 161-362 | Neutral: 201-362 | Away: 241-362

NET Ranking	Date	Opponent	Result
206	11/09/2024	Bucknell	W 100-72
212	12/31/2024	Brown	W 88-54
216	11/04/2024	Wright St.	W 103-62
251	12/11/2024	Colgate	W 78-67
269	11/22/2024	Jackson St.	W 108-59
270	11/29/2024	Georgia St.	W 105-76

Team Sheet Notes

— Kentucky’s Quad 1 wins are all safely in the margins. After wins over Texas A&M and Missouri, Vanderbilt is up to No. 37 in the NET, which moves the loss to the Commodores in Nashville from Quad 1B to Quad 1A. If Vandy climbs into the top 30 of the NET, Kentucky’s win in Nashville will move from Quad 2 to Quad 1B. The Dores close out the regular season vs. Arkansas at home and at Georgia.

— Some things working in Kentucky’s favor: the Cats have the second toughest schedule of any team in the country per the NET, the toughest in the SEC. Kentucky’s Wins Above Bubble (WAB) is 4.66, which ranks ninth in the country. That means Kentucky has 4.66 more wins than the average bubble team. Auburn ranks first in that metric with 12.77. Another sign that the Tigers are really, really good.

— Kentucky is still hanging around the No. 3 and No. 4 seed line in NCAA Tournament projections. Here’s how the Cats’ resume stacks up against other teams in their range, via Bracketologists.

The Road Ahead

It’s hard to believe that just two regular-season games remain. As mentioned, tomorrow’s game vs. LSU is in Quad 3, just one of four Quad 3 games this season. The Tigers aren’t great, winning just three SEC games this season (Arkansas, at Oklahoma, South Carolina). Kentucky must take care of business or the Selection Committee will have a very valid reason to drop them, injuries or no injuries.

Saturday’s game at Missouri is in Quad 1A. A win there would be significant, but a loss won’t hurt Kentucky much, as the Tigers are No. 13 in the NET and that game is on the road. With a can’t-lose game vs. LSU tomorrow, whatever happens in CoMo kind of feels like icing on top.

Date	Opponent	NET Ranking	Quad
03/04/2025 (07:00 PM)	LSU	84	Quad 3
03/08/2025 (12:00 PM)	@ Missouri	13	Quad 1A