KSR's 2024 NCAA Tournament South Region Preview

It’s time to look at the South Region of the NCAA Tournament, the one the Kentucky Wildcats must win to get to Phoenix. After losing early in the SEC Tournament, this is about as favorable a draw as the Cats could have asked for. Not only will they start their run in Pittsburgh, a five-and-a-half hour drive from Lexington, but they’re a No. 3 seed, meaning they won’t have to face the No. 1 seed until the Elite Eight. In this case, that’s Houston, which probably wouldn’t have been everyone’s first choice, but the path to the Final Four is there for the taking.

Will the Cats do it? Let’s break down the South Region.

The Bracket

South Region Schedule

Wednesday, March 20

(10) Colorado [-2.5] vs. (10) Boise State | 9:10 p.m. | truTV

Thursday, March 21

(3) Kentucky [-13.5] vs. (14) Oakland | 7:10 p.m. | CBS
(6) Texas Tech [-5.5] vs. (11) NC State | 9:40 p.m. | CBS

Friday, March 22

(2) Marquette [-14.5] vs. (15) Western Kentucky | 2 p.m. | TBS
(7) Florida vs. (10) Colorado/(10) Boise State | 4:30 p.m. | TBS
(8) Nebraska [-1.5] vs. (9) Texas A&M | 6:50 p.m. | TNT
(4) Duke [-11.5] vs. (13) Vermont | 7:10 p.m. | CBS
(1) Houston [-24.5] vs. (16) Longwood | 9:20 p.m. | TNT
(5) Wisconsin [-5.5] vs. (12) James Madison | 9:40 p.m. | CBS

The Favorite: Houston

Houston is the No. 2 overall team in the tournament per the Selection Committee’s seed list. The Cougars are 30-4 this season, losing only on the road at Iowa State, TCU, and Kansas in the regular season before being walloped by Iowa State in the Big 12 Championship. Their defense is elite, No. 2 in KenPom efficiency, and No. 1 in the NCAA in points allowed at 57.0 per game. If the Cats do make it to Dallas to play them, it will be quite a contrast in styles. The same goes for Houston vs. Duke, a matchup that could take place in the Sweet 16.

Point guard Jamal Shead is one of the best on-ball defenders in the country, averaging 2.6 steals per game (for comparison, Reed Sheppard averages 2.3). On offense, Houston goes as L.J. Cryer and Emanuel Sharp go. If Cryer and Sharp are making shots, they’re hard to stop; if not, like vs. Iowa State, they’re vulnerable. Cryer and Sharp combined for 5-21 from the field for only 12 points vs. the Cyclones.

Add in the fact that the South Regional is in Dallas, a 3.5-hour drive from Houston and you can see why the Cougars are such a big favorite to advance to Phoenix, although the 28-point loss to Iowa State proves they’re not invincible.

FanDuel Odds to win the South Region

• Houston +140
• Marquette +550
• Duke +650
• Kentucky +700
• Wisconsin +1200
• Florida +1500
• Texas Tech +1600
• Nebraska +3000
• Colorado +3500
• Texas A&M +3500
• NC State +4600
• James Madison +7500
• Boise State +7500
• Oakland +25000
• Vermont +25000
• Western Kentucky +25000
• Longwood +25000

All eyes on Tyler Kolek

To face Houston, Kentucky may have to get past No. 2 seed Marquette in the Sweet 16. Kentucky has played Marquette more than any other team in the NCAA Tournament (10 times). The Golden Eagles’ tournament hopes hinge on the health of point guard Tyler Kolek, who has missed six games with an oblique injury. Kolek is expected to return for the first-round game vs. Western Kentucky on Friday.

How will Florida respond to adversity?

If you didn’t watch the SEC Tournament Championship, consider yourself lucky because you were spared seeing Florida big man Micah Handlogten suffer a gruesome leg injury. Personnel-wise, the Gators aren’t dead in the water without Handlogten, who averaged 5.3 points and 6.9 rebounds, but how will they respond to the adversity?

Florida was one of the hottest teams in the SEC before Handlogten went down, beating Alabama convincingly in the quarterfinals and coming back from 18 points down vs. Texas A&M in the semifinals. Being without Handlogten, the team’s top offensive rebounder is not ideal, but the Gators could give Marquette fits, especially if Tyler Kolek isn’t 100%. As a Kentucky fan, I would not want to face them again in the Sweet 16.

D.J. Burns Jr., America’s Darling

I’m a little bummed Kentucky may face NC State in the second round because D.J. Burns Jr. may be one of my favorite players in the sport. At 6’9″, 275 lbs., the NC State big man is a tank, winning ACC Tournament MVP honors for his part in the Wolfpack’s run to the tournament title. He had 20 points and a career-high seven assists in the win over North Carolina in the finals, which included his first three-pointer over five seasons of college basketball.

Seeing Burns go up vs. Kentucky’s frontcourt of skinny seven-footers would be something. The Wolfpack will have to get past Texas Tech (and the Cats past Oakland) for it to happen.

Upset Special: No. 12 James Madison over No. 5 Wisconsin

One of the most popular upset picks thus far is No. 12 James Madison over No. 5 Wisconsin. Not only is there a history of No. 12 seeds upsetting No. 5 seeds, but the Dukes have won more games heading into the tournament than any other team in the field save UConn. They were 31-3 this season, starting with a win at Michigan State. James Madison is fearless and Wisconsin is slow and inconsistent, losing eight of its 11 games before the Big Ten Tournament.

Plus, picking against Wisconsin is fun. We’ll all be cheering for James Madison late Friday night.

South Region Champion

When I drew the South Region as my preview, I knew I’d have the unfortunate moment where I’d have to choose between the heart and the head. Can Kentucky beat Houston — or any team in the region — to advance to the program’s first Final Four since 2015? Absolutely. When the Cats are rolling and even playing a smidge of defense, few teams in the country can keep up with them. Seeing the Cougars try could be fascinating. And, if Kentucky can escape a pressure-cooker first weekend, you could talk me into the young Cats building enough momentum to get through two or more games. If Houston loses to Duke in the Sweet 16, can you imagine the atmosphere for a Duke vs. Kentucky 1992 and 1998 Regional Final rematch?

But then I remember what happened in the SEC Tournament. Kentucky rode a five-game winning streak to Nashville and was playing its best basketball of the season. Then, in front of arguably the best crowd all season, the Cats stumbled again, reverting to all their bad habits. What’s to say that won’t happen again as the field gets smaller and smaller and excitement and expectations ramp back up? My heart is going with the Cats to get to Phoenix, but my head’s picking the Houston Cougars instead.

Check out KSR’s other NCAA Tournament Region Previews: West Region, East Region