NCAA Tournament Watch: Bubble chaos in power conference tournaments

The Big Six conference tournaments are all underway at this point in the week. Which means bubble teams fighting for their lives and at-large bids being upset. No conference champions to speak of from Thursday, but still plenty of action all around. Let’s run through the important results of Thursday from an NCAA Tournament perspective.

Today also features the biggest update to the NCAA Tournament Master Sheet, which can be found at the bottom of the post. Dive in, folks!

Baylor opens the door for a one-seed

One-seed contenders such as Kansas, Kentucky, Duke, etc. rejoiced at the reigning champs’ expense yesterday afternoon as the Bears fell to Oklahoma in the Big 12 Tournament. I wrote in my college basketball update on Monday that Baylor had an inside track at a one-seed. But blowing the opening game of their postseason vs. the Sooners certainly puts their chances in jeopardy.

Now, Kansas, Kentucky and Auburn are likely jockeying for the last two one-seeds assuming Arizona and Gonzaga occupy the first two spots. The ‘Cats and Tigers will duel it out in the SEC Tournament while Kansas probably takes a one-seed regardless if they take the Big 12 crown. But if they lose, UK and Auburn may both sneak onto the one line, or perhaps Duke or Purdue makes a strong case this week. Either way, business is far from finished at the top of the bracket.

Bubble teams that won and lost

Speaking of Baylor, Oklahoma’s upset of the Bears earned them bubble consideration. I’m typically against 14-loss teams making the NCAA Tournament, but the committee proved last year with Maryland that it’s more than happy to issue a bid to a team with more than a dozen losses. Sooners have neutral-court wins over Arkansas and Baylor and defeated Texas Tech at home. That’s three top-15 wins. Still have them on the outside looking in but worth a mention on the bubble at the very least.

TCU took down Texas in their Big 12 tourney opener to lock up an at-large bid. Jamie Dixon’s club was practically in before upending Texas but now they won’t sweat a drop come Selection Sunday.

Indiana finally held on to win a close game. The Hoosiers erased a 17-point comeback to defeat Michigan in a battle of two teams square on the bubble. Mike Woodson is one step closer to going dancing in year one. I’d have to think a victory over Illinois today puts Indiana in the field for sure. Meanwhile, Juwan Howard and the Wolverines took their 14th loss last night, and you just heard my thoughts on 14-loss at-large teams.

Florida also overcame a big deficit late with a flurry of threes in the final minute to force overtime vs. Texas A&M. But in the extra period, the Aggies drained a three right before the horn to seal a Friday appearance in the SEC Tournament.

HASSAN DIARRA. TEXAS A&M WINS! 🚨

(via @aggiembk)pic.twitter.com/FB5yOCqvak

— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) March 10, 2022

Buzz Williams may have a chance at an at-large yet. Sure, A&M dropped eight in a row, but their resume features just 11 total losses and a home win over Arkansas. They also beat two fellow bubble teams, Florida and Notre Dame, on neutral sites — and yesterday completed a season sweep of the Gators. Texas A&M absolutely has a chance to make the field, and can solidify their body of work with a win over Auburn at noon today.

Bubble reapers Boston College were back at it in the ACC Tournament yesterday and nearly took down Miami. The Eagles took Wake Forest to overtime and beat them on Wednesday. Thursday, they took the Hurricanes to extra time. On their final possession of the overtime period, BC bricked a shot and failed to get back on defense, allowing a buzzer-beating layup to keep Miami’s tourney hopes alive.

MIAMI AT THE BUZZER IN OT 😳

(via @CBBonFOX)pic.twitter.com/q8RJFs42hC

— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) March 10, 2022

Creighton took down Marquette in the Big East tourney. Looks like both of those teams should be comfortably in. Marquette more so than the Blue Jays, but the Big East is looking to get at least five teams in the NCAA Tournament.

Finally, Virginia Tech defeated Notre Dame in a shootout, 87-80, as the Hokies are barely keeping their postseason dreams alive. The Fighting Irish are battling for bubble position too, and losses to Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Indiana and Texas A&M give them five total head-to-head defeats at the hands of other bubble teams. If the committee is nitpicking between ND and one of those teams, hard to think they’ll overlook these losses.

Exhibit A why the almighty NET is not to be trusted: Creighton is 21-10 with a 6-5 quad-one record while Virginia Tech is 21-12 with just one quad-one win. Yet the Hokies are more than 30 spots ahead of the Blue Jays. Nonsense!

NCAA Tournament Master Sheet

Changes to the sheet after Thursday:

• Bubble metrics UPDATED
• SIX locks lost and moved to At-Large: Alabama, Baylor, Texas, Marquette, Ohio State, Seton Hall
• NO Conference Champs

Also, remember some guidelines

• 32 Conference champs + 36 at-large bids = 68 total teams
• Bold teams are IN tournament and DONE with season
• Locks move to at-large once/if they lose in conference tournament
• Italics = Projected to field
• Bubble teams that lost*

Dive in. Who do you think should be in and out?

No.	Conference	Champ	At-Large	Locks	Bubble Teams	NET	Record	Quad1
1	AAC	Houston	San Fran.	Houston	SMU	48	22-7	2-1
2	ACC	Duke	St. Mary’s	USC	Notre Dame*	53	21-9	3-7
3	America East	Vermont	Alabama	Duke	Miami	63	23-9	5-1
4	Atlantic 10	Davidson	Baylor	North Carolina	Wake Forest*	45	23-9	2-4
5	Atlantic Sun	J’ville State	Texas	Kentucky	Virginia Tech	33	19-12	1-6
6	Big 12	Kansas	Marquette	Kansas	Virginia*	80	18-12	3-7
7	Big East	Villanova	Ohio State	Texas Tech	Davidson	46	24-5	2-2
8	Big Sky	Montana St.	Seton Hall	LSU	Dayton	52	22-9	2-2
9	Big South	Longwood	USC	TCU	VCU	51	21-8	3-3
10	Big Ten	Wisconsin	UNC	Iowa St.	Florida*	58	19-13	3-9
11	Big West	Long Beach St	Texas Tech	Providence	Creighton	66	21-10	6-5
12	CAA	Delaware	LSU	Villanova	Xavier*	40	18-13	5-9
13	C-USA	North Texas	TCU	UCONN	Rutgers	77	18-12	6-5
14	Horizon	Wright St.	Iowa St.	Tennessee	Michigan*	34	17-14	5-10
15	Ivy League	Princeton	Providence	Auburn	Indiana	41	20-12	4-7
16	MAAC	Siena	UCONN	Wisconsin	North Texas	39	24-5	1-1
17	MAC	Kent State	Tennessee	Illinois	Wyoming	44	25-7	3-4
18	MEAC	Norfolk State	Auburn	Purdue	Oregon*	74	19-15	4-5
19	MVC	Loyola (IL.)	Illinois	Iowa	Memphis	35	19-9	4-3
20	Mountain West	SDSU	Purdue	Arkansas	Texas A&M	55	20-11	2-9
21	Northeast	Bryant	Iowa	Michigan State	BYU	54	22-10	4-6
22	OVC	Murray St.	Arkansas	Boise State	Oklahoma	38	18-14	4-11
23	Pac-12	Arizona	MSU	Colorado State	St. Bonaventure	82	20-8	3-4
24	Patriot League	Colgate	Boise St.	San Diego State
25	SEC	Kentucky	UCLA	Arizona
26	SoCon	Chattanooga	Memphis	UCLA
27	Southland	Nicholls St.	Miami
28	Summit League	So. Dakota St.	Creighton
29	Sun Belt	Georgia St.	Rutgers	Last Four Bye
30	SWAC	Alcorn St.	SMU	Last Four Bye
31	WAC	Seattle	Notre Dame	Last Four Bye
32	WCC	Gonzaga	Texas A&M	Last Four Bye
33			Indiana	Last Four IN
34			Wake Forest	Last Four IN
35			Wyoming	Last Four IN
36			Xavier	Last Four IN