NCAA Tournament Watch: The full bubble picture after Friday

Every single conference tournament is either underway or finished as we close in on the NCAA Tournament Selection Show. The bubble grows more confusing by the minute so let’s break down the at-large consequences of the Friday slate.

Much like Thursday, Friday featured zero conference championship games ahead of the 15 we’ll get on Saturday. Which is ridiculous. Why not spread these title games out a little more during the week so the smaller conferences can get some limelight? The early half of the week was fun with Chattanooga’s buzzer-beater, the Wagner-Bryant brawl and several other title games. Instead, the rest of the smaller conference championships will be washed in with the big boys on Saturday and Sunday.

Anyway, on to bubble talk, going conference by conference. And I wrap it all up with a major update to the NCAA Tournament Manifest at the end of this post, projecting every single team in the tourney field as of Saturday morning.

SEC: Aggies gone wild

I foolishly wrote during one of my SEC Saturday recaps that Texas A&M was toast after losing eight in a row and had no chance of sneaking into the NCAA Tournament field. Buzz Williams and company responded to my statement by winning five of their last six regular season games, then dismantled Florida and Auburn in the SEC Tournament.

Eight losses in a row is a big black eye. However, the selection committee prides itself on evaluating a team’s “entire body of work.” A&M’s body of work is a 22-11 record with an 11-9 SEC tally that includes two wins over Florida, wins over Arkansas and Auburn and a neutral court victory over bubble competition Notre Dame.

Joe Lunardi stated that A&M had a “one in four chance” of making the Big Dance WITH a win over Auburn today. Preposterous. Looking over the manifest (bottom of the post), A&M has fewer losses than most of the other power conference bubble teams and five quality wins. Even with a loss vs. Arkansas in their next game, Aggies ought to be in the field, per my judgment. I’ve got them Last Four In.

ACC: Virginia Tech scores huge win over UNC, Miami locked in

Miami fell against Duke in the ACC semis, but I’m locking the ‘Canes into the tourney field regardless. Their resume presents a 23-10 record, 4-3 against quad one, and one critical victory over Duke in Cameron Indoor. Lock ’em in.

I was skeptical of Virginia Tech’s resume — and still am. However, the Hokies made a chest-thumping WE BELONG statement in Brooklyn this week with a win over bubble competitor Notre Dame and a 20-point drubbing of North Carolina. I slightly prefer the resumes of Texas A&M and Rutgers, but Hokies are the Last Team IN for me. You can decide between those guys in the master sheet.

My first team out? Wake Forest. Tough to have a 23-9 ACC team on the outside looking in, but the Demon Deacons only have the men in the mirror to blame. Score a win over any of these other ACC bubble teams in the ACC tourney and they’re in. Heck, don’t lose to Boston College and they’re likely in. But with one quad-one win to their name, three quad-two losses and two quad-three losses, I can’t reward them with a bid. Hate it for them. I LOVE watching Alondes Williams.

Big 12: Too many losses for Oklahoma?

I’m appalled by Michigan’s 14 losses, so why even consider Oklahoma and their FIFTEEN losses? Because the bracketology community fears high numbers of losses less than I do. And the Sooners do have great wins — over Baylor, Arkansas and Texas Tech, to name a few. At the end of the day, though, no way they get a nod over my last four teams. OUT for Oklahoma.

Big Ten: Indiana holds on vs. Illinois, Rutgers falls to Iowa

Michigan is on standby after falling to the Hoosiers on Thursday. Most bracketologists project the Wolverines into the field, but not this one. They’re 17-14 and lost to freakin’ Indiana in a must-win game. I’m supposed to believe they deserve a spot over Texas A&M? Get outta here. First Four Out for me.

After beating Michigan, Indiana advanced to play Illinois in a game that could make their NCAA Tournament case. They tried to blow a late lead with several botched transition opportunities and missed free throws from a 90% free throw shooter, but luckily for Mike Woodson, Illinois and Andre Curbelo are equally robust in screwing up close games. Hoosiers held on and earn a Last Four In spot for now.

The curious case of Rutgers basketball continued in Indianapolis on Friday. At their best, the Scarlet Knights toppled Purdue, Ohio State and Illinois at home and beat Wisconsin in the Kohl’s Center. At their worst, Rutgers lost to Lafayette and Massachusetts and were stomped by Iowa in a crucial Big Ten tournament game on Friday. They finish 18-13 with great wins, a slew of bad losses and in total limbo. I tend to favor good wins good wins more than anything else, and Rutgers has those in volume. Last Four In as of Saturday morning.

Mid-majors: North Texas, A-10 title game, and BYU

North Texas had an easy objective: win the Conference USA Tournament. Alas, they scored 36 total points in a loss to Louisiana Tech and parachuted to the dead center of the bubble. The Mean Green are 24-6 and split their quad-one games. Which brings up the long-standing NCAA Tournament debate: mid-major team with a terrific record and few good wins vs. power conference team with a lot of losses and a lot of good wins? The committee hasn’t provided consistent ruling on topic like this, some years preferring small conference teams like Drake in 2021. They also rewarded 16-13 Maryland last season too, so it’s anyone’s guess. For UNT, I just don’t think they have enough meat on the bone to impress the committee. OUT.

Davidson, on the other hand, is alive in the A-10 tournament and can seal a spot simply by winning it, obviously. Even if they lose to Dayton on Saturday, Kellan Grady’s alma mater would be 26-6 with a pair of quad-one wins and a better quality of schedule than North Texas. I think they’ll be in regardless of then A-10 title, but barely.

Their foe, Dayton, is squarely on the bubble and I’m leaning towards them as OUT assuming they fall to Davidson. Yes, the Flyers beat Kansas and Virginia Tech, but THREE quad-four losses and a 23-10 record (if they lose in the final) leave a sour taste in my mouth.

Finally, BYU lands on the outside of the snow globe for me. Very well could make the tourney but I don’t value 10-loss WCC teams as much as others. Although a 4-6 quad-one record is one of the stronger marks among bubble teams. Going to be a close call for the Cougars. First Four Out as of Saturday.

NCAA Tournament Manifest

Updates from Friday:

• Locks who lost, moved to At-Large: USC, UNC, LSU, TCU, Auburn, Wisconsin, Providence, UCONN, Illinois, Iowa St., Colorado St., Miami
• Conference Champs: NONE, but 15 of them today. Tune up your televisions, folks. LOT of basketball on the docket.
• LAST FOUR BYES, LAST FOUR IN, FIRST FOUR IN sections added. Check ’em out.

Also remember the rules:

• 32 Conference champs + 36 at-large bids = 68 total teams
• Locks move to at-large once/if they lose in conference tournament
• Bold teams are IN NCAA Tournament and DONE with season
• Italics = Projected to field
• Bubble teams that lost*

No.	Conference	Champ	At-Large	Locks	Bubble Teams	NET	Record	Quad1
1	AAC	Houston	San Fran.	Houston	SMU	42	23-7	2-1
2	ACC	Duke	St. Mary’s	Kentucky	Notre Dame*	52	21-10	2-7
3	America East	Vermont	Alabama	Duke	Saint Bonaventure	84	20-9	3-4
4	Atlantic 10	Davidson	Baylor	Kansas	Wake Forest*	45	23-9	1-4
5	Atlantic Sun	J’ville State	Texas	Texas Tech	Virginia Tech	30	22-12	2-5
6	Big 12	Kansas	Marquette	Villanova	Virginia*	80	18-12	3-7
7	Big East	Villanova	Ohio State	Tennessee	Davidson	43	26-5	2-2
8	Big Sky	Montana St.	Seton Hall	Purdue	Dayton	54	23-9	3-2
9	Big South	Longwood	USC	Iowa	VCU*	56	21-9	3-3
10	Big Ten	Purdue	UNC	Arkansas	Florida*	58	19-13	3-9
11	Big West	Long Beach St	LSU	Michigan State	Oklahoma	39	18-15	4-12
12	CAA	Delaware	TCU	Boise State	Xavier*	40	18-13	5-8
13	C-USA	LA Tech	Auburn	SDSU	Rutgers*	78	18-13	6-6
14	Horizon	Wright St.	Wisconsin	Arizona	Michigan*	34	17-14	5-10
15	Ivy League	Princeton	Providence	UCLA	Indiana	38	20-12	4-7
16	MAAC	Siena	UCONN	Creighton	North Texas*	46	24-6	1-1
17	MAC	Kent State	Illinois	Miami	Wyoming	48	25-7	4-5
18	MEAC	Norfolk State	Iowa St.	Memphis	Texas A&M	51	22-11	3-9
19	MVC	Loyola (IL.)	Colorado State		BYU	53	22-10	4-6
20	MWC	SDSU	Miami		Texas A&M	51	22-11	3-9
21	Northeast	Bryant	Iowa
22	OVC	Murray St.	Arkansas
23	Pac-12	Arizona	MSU
24	Patriot League	Colgate	Boise St.
25	SEC	Kentucky	UCLA
26	SoCon	Chattanooga	Tennessee
27	Southland	Nicholls St.	Texas Tech
28	Summit League	So. Dakota St.	Creighton
29	Sun Belt	Georgia St.	Memphis	Last Four Bye
30	SWAC	Alcorn St.	SMU	Last Four Bye
31	WAC	Seattle	Notre Dame	Last Four Bye
32	WCC	Gonzaga	Wyoming	Last Four Bye	FIRST FOUR OUT
33			Indiana	Last Four IN	Wake Forest
34			Rutgers	Last Four IN	Xavier
35			Texas A&M	Last Four IN	BYU
36			Virginia Tech	Last Four IN	Michigan