North Carolina will focus on slowing Kentucky's elite transition offense

Kentucky is one of the most efficient and dangerous teams in the country when it comes to scoring the ball in transition. According to Synergy, the Wildcats rank in the 85th percentile in fastbreak situations, producing 1.185 points per possession in transition — borderline elite figures. Kentucky has generated 189 transition opportunities through nine games this season, right at 21 times per contest.

For context, UK’s opponent on Saturday, the No. 9 North Carolina Tarheels, has only generated 145 transition opportunities through the same amount of games (16.1 per outing). Kentucky is holding onto the ball for just 15.1 seconds per possession, among the top 15 shortest times in all of Division I basketball, per KenPom. That’s what happens when John Calipari embraces a guard-oriented style. There are scorers and passers spread throughout the rotation, and all of them want to push the pace.

When Kentucky gets the ball with even a slight head of steam, it only takes a few ticks off the clock before a shot goes up. The guards are lightning quick and all great scorers, plus 6-foot-9 Tre Mitchell knows to get them the ball as soon as possible.

“The way that they score in terms of their pace, I think is elite,” North Carolina head coach Hubert Davis said about UK during his Thursday press conference. “They’re really good in transition. It’s not just off of a missed shot or off of a turnover. Even after a made basket they get the ball out quick, they do an excellent job of pitching the ball ahead. They’re very efficient at scoring in the first six or seven seconds of a possession. From that standpoint, our transition defense in any scenario is going to have to be really good, defensively.”

North Carolina’s transition defense has been good, not great, through its first nine games. Synergy grades the Tar Heels out in the 62nd percentile, allowing 0.971 points per transition possession off 104 opportunities. UNC has the guards capable of keeping up with Kentucky’s, but a slower set of frontcourt players could allow for open pockets of space on the back line.

Even with 7-foot-1 Aaron Bradshaw now in the mix for Kentucky, the pace isn’t slipping so far. His desire to run the floor is just another wrinkle in how UK can excel in transition. Bradshaw wants to run. There’s now some size to throw it to at the rim. The ‘Cats scored 14 fastbreak points during Bradshaw’s double-double performance against Penn last weekend. Off any defensive rebound or turnover or even made basket, every Kentucky player is immediately looking to push the ball.

“Kentucky’s speed, they’ve got a number of different playmakers that have the ability to advance the ball up the floor,” Davis added. “And their bigs, specifically Mitchell is an excellent passer and outleter, he does a terrific job of just pitching the ball ahead, allowing them to get out in transition, so that’s something that they do really well, it’s something that I think we do really well. And we’re just gonna have to do it in that particular area better than them on Saturday.”

On the flip side, as Davis mentioned, North Carolina can also attack in transition. The Tar Heels aren’t nearly as lethal with that approach compared to Kentucky, but it’s in the arsenal. UNC ranks 24th in the nation per KenPom in average possession length at 15.4 seconds. Armando Bacot is a load at 6-foot-11, 240 pounds, but he’ll gladly sprint the floor for easy buckets. He has the guards capable of getting him the ball, too. Synergy grades North Carolina out in the 65th percentile in transition opportunities at 1.117 points per possession (145 total opportunities). Again, solid numbers, just not at Kentucky’s level.

North Carolina's transition numbers don't match Kentucky's, but they certainly are no slouch in that area. Elliot Cadeau & RJ Davis give them essentially 2 point guards. Then, Armando Bacot runs the floor REALLY well for how big he is. Love how he finds his man at top of the key. pic.twitter.com/vOpZ7CDqZM

— Brandon Ramsey (@BRamseyKSR) December 15, 2023

“Carolina likes to play a lot in transition, so that’s one of the things we gotta look at a little bit too,” Kentucky associate to the head coach Bruiser Flint said on Thursday. “That’s a big part of what they do is transition. RJ Davis is a very good offensive player. We’ve played against them in the past, they haven’t changed much, but Carolina is Carolina. The biggest thing is if you don’t stop them in transition you’ve got no chance.“

The good news is Kentucky has been excellent at defending in transition so far this season. Part of that can be credited to playing smaller and not gunning for offensive rebounds, instead staying back and setting up the defense. That could change with Bradshaw back and another seven-footer, Ugonna Onyenso, on the way, but so far, Kentucky is simply not giving up fastbreaks. While not always ideal, this is when it helps to have so many guards who like to gamble for steals and hunt in passing lanes.

Kentucky is actually one of the nation’s best teams in stopping the fastbreak. Synergy ranks UK in the 91st percentile on that end, with the ‘Cats giving up just 0.842 points per possession across 101 transition opportunities. Kentucky doesn’t crash the offensive glass and takes a significant chunk of its shots from beyond the arc — getting back on defense is easier. The math checks out.

North Carolina and Kentucky are two of the 15 best offensive teams in the country. There’s a reason why KenPom projects both teams to score in the mid-80s. Transition opportunities play a big role in how each team generates points. It could end up being the deciding factor in who leaves Atlanta with a win.