Noteworthy Kentucky Derby Trends, presented by NYRA Bets

It’s almost time to pick up your program and begin handicapping Kentucky Derby 150. Before scouring through the past performances, there are a few trends of past Derby winners that may make you reconsider who you want to wager on this first Saturday in May.

---

Bet the Run for the Roses with NYRA Bets! Score big on the Kentucky Derby with a double dose of rewards! Sign up today for a $25 Free Bet AND $200 Deposit Bonus with promo code KSR25. Join now to claim your $25 Free Bet & $200 Deposit Bonus at nyrabets.com/KSR25! 

Need more? Bet Kentucky Oaks Day with a $30 bonus! Opt-in and bet at least $150 each on Belmont at the Big A & Churchill Downs — $30, win or lose!

We’re giving you an extra $50 for Derby150! Bet $250 each on Belmont at the Big A & Churchill Downs for a $50 bonus – win or lose! Visit NYRABets.com to opt in! 

The Triple Crown is here! Opt-in and bet at least $25 on the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes and get a $10 bonus on Belmont Stakes Day, win or lose! 

Feed your competitive edge with live money handicapping contests nearly every week! Enter the Friday Feeder Contest to earn your entry into the next $300 Contest. Plus, win cash prizes and seats into next week’s contest with the NYRA Bets Saturday Contests. Registration closes before Aqueduct 3rd race post time on the day of each contest.  Visit NYRA.com/contests to learn more.

NYRA Bets has everything you need to bet the Fastest Two Minutes in Sports with confidence! For expert picks, betting insights, promotions & more visit NYRABets.com.

Catch all the Triple Crown action on America’s Day at the Races. Check out the full schedule at NYRABets.com/fox.

Kentucky Derby Post Positions are Irrelevant

Don’t read too much into where a horse starts the race in the gate, maybe with one exception. A horse from the 17 post has never won the Kentucky Derby. There are some places trainers would prefer to avoid. No horse has won from inside gate No. 4 since 2013, but there have been six winners from No. 4-10 and five winners from outside of gate No. 10 during that time.

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Success Doesn’t Translate

Fierceness will be one of the favorites on the first Saturday in May. The colt was crowned the 2-year-old champion last year at Santa Anita. In the 39-year history of the Breeders’ Cup, only two Juvenile winners have worn the garland of roses, Street Sense in 2007 and Nyquist in 2016.

Florida Derby is the Best Proving Ground

That trend does not work for Fierceness, but this one is a pro for Mike Repole’s horse. Five of the last ten winners ran their last prep race in the Florida Derby, including last year’s winner, Mage, who finished second at Gulfstream Park before winning Kentucky Derby 149. There are two other Florida Derby runners coming to Churchill Downs, Catalytic and Grand Mo the First, one of the final entries into the field.

Wood Memorial and the Blue Grass Stakes

The Wood Memorial is the most prominent race for 3-year-olds in the New York circuit. That doesn’t translate to Derby Day success. The winner of the Wood Memorial hasn’t finished better than fourth since 2013. The last Wood Memorial winner to wear the garland of roses was Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000. Resilience, who lost to Sierra Leone in the Risen Star, won this year’s Wood Memorial.

The Blue Grass Stakes has an even longer Derby drought, dating back to Strike the Gold in 1991. However, the race has some recent success in Derby Day trifectas. Zandon was third in 2022 and Good Magic finished second in 2018. Sierra Leone, a top choice in this year’s Derby, looked impressive last month at Keeneland.

Winning the Last Kentucky Derby Prep Matters

I feel like Captain Obvious for sharing this trend, but it’s certainly noteworthy. The last ten Kentucky Derby winners all finished in the top three of their final prep race ahead of the Derby. Seven of those horses won their final prep race.

To take it a step further, most favorites are favorites because they are perfect throughout their 3-year-old careers, something you can’t say about Fierceness, who finished third in the Holy Bull. According to Churchill Downs track announcer Travis Stone, favorites who lost in their 3-year-old season are just 1-for-17 in the Kentucky Derby. The only winner was Street Sense, who was edged out in the Blue Grass Stakes. The nine favorites who won the Kentucky Derby were 26-for-26 in Derby preps.

Final Fractions Theory

This is the longest race of each 3-year-old’s career, extending to 1 1/4 miles. In order to handicap how a horse might handle the extra distance, longtime turf writer Jennie Rees popularized the Final Fractions Theory. In simple terms, the horses who finished strong in their final prep races are most likely to finish strong in the Derby.

To meet this criteria established by Rees, horses must run their final 3/8 in less than 38 seconds and final 1/8 in less than 13 seconds. Sierra Leone did not make the cut by a few hundredths of a second in each fraction. This year 11 horses meet the Final Fractions Theory criteria, including Fierceness, Catching Freedom, Forever Young, and Honor Marie.

This trend has worked well over the last decade but has not applied to three of the last four winners, including Mage in 2023.

Kentucky Derby Wins Elude Top Jockeys

The best riders don’t always get the best horses. Pat Day was in the Hall of Fame before he won Lil E. Tee to victory in 1992, his only Kentucky Derby victory.

Tyler Gafflione has won more than 2,300 races and been in the Kentucky Derby six times but has never finished better than seventh. Jose Ortiz has been in eight Kentucky Derbies and posted four top-five finishes, but never crossed the finish line first. His older brother, Irad Ortiz, has five Eclipse Awards as the best jockey in the sport, yet in seven starts he’s never hit the board at the Kentucky Derby.