One and Done: Early SEC Tournament Exit Forecasts Bleak NCAA Tournament Future

Kentucky tipped off postseason play on the wrong note in the Music City. The Wildcats were one and done in the SEC Tournament, falling to Vanderbilt 80-73 Friday night.

It’s the second time in three years Kentucky has failed to win an SEC Tournament game, yet throughout history it’s an infrequent occurrence. Since World War II the Wildcats have been one and done in the SEC Tournament 11 times and only three of the previous ten made it to the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament. How the past teams performed shine a light on what we can expect this March.

Miss NCAA Tournament: 3

John Calipari’s previous early exits were in disastrous seasons. The Cats lost a close one to Mississippi State, ending the Covid-plagued nine-win 2021 campaign. The Cats needed at least one win in the 2013 SEC Tournament to secure a bid to the big dance, but fell by double digits to Vanderbilt in the opener. Eddie Sutton’s final team failed to make the NCAA Tournament after the sub .500 Cats were ousted in the first round of the 1989 SEC Tournament.

NCAA Tournament First Weekend Losses: 4

Billy Gillispie lost his first SEC Tournament game in unusual circumstances when a tornado damaged the roof of the Georgia Dome, forcing officials to postpone the game until Saturday morning at Georgia Tech. Sundiata Gaines’ Georgia Bulldogs knocked off Kentucky in overtime. The following week Joe Crawford scored 35 points, but the No. 11 seed could not knock off Tom Crean’s Marquette team. The No. 6 Golden Eagles won 74-66 to end Kentucky’s 2008 season.

The 2000 Kentucky Wildcats were SEC Regular Season Co-Champs, but struggled mightily in the postseason. Tubby Smith’s team lost by 14 to Arkansas in Atlanta. Their struggles continued in Cleveland, narrowly escaping an upset with a double overtime victory over St. Bonaventure. Two days later they suffered a 2-point loss to Syracuse to end the season.

In 1987 Kentucky lost both of its postseason games. They were eliminated from SEC Tournament play by Auburn, then fell in an 8-9 game to Ohio State. Dennis Hopson scored 32 points for Gary Williams’ Buckeyes in the win.

Prior to last season’s loss to Saint Peter’s, the 1981 NCAA Tournament loss to UAB was the biggest upset in school history. Before the tournament expanded to 64 teams, Kentucky was a No. 2 seed with a bye into the round of 32. Four Blazers scored in double figures to stun Joe B. Hall’s Cats 69-62.

Sweet 16 Appearances: 3

If you believe the history repeats itself, these Kentucky Wildcats only have a 30% chance to make it to the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament.

Team Turmoil was unfazed by 13-point loss to South Carolina in the 2002 SEC Tournament. A popular upset pick, the No. 4 seeded Wildcats handled Valpo with ease in the opening round. Two days later Tayshaun Prince scored 41 points in a victory over Tulsa, mirroring Goose Givens’ all-time performance in St. Louis. Prince only scored 6 points a week later and the Cats came up short to USC in the Sweet 16.

Joe B. Hall’s final season at Kentucky featured a surprising NCAA Tournament run. The Cats were a No. 12 seed following an early SEC Tournament exit to Florida. Kentucky upset Washington and Detlef Schrempf, then knocked out UCLA in the round of 32 to advance to the Sweet 16. The Cinderella story ended against Chris Mullins and Mark Jackson’s St. John’s squad.

Two years prior Hall’s Cats lost to Alabama in the opening contest of the SEC Tournament. They still earned a No. 3 seed, setting the table for an historic matchup. Kentucky defeated Ohio, then eliminated Indiana to pit the Cats against the Cards in “The Dream Game.” The Wildcats had strategically avoided a regular season matchup with Denny Crum’s Cards. Now unavoidable, Kentucky had a chance to reassert their dominance of the state. Jim Master’s 12-footer forced the game into overtime tied at 62. Louisville outscored Kentucky 18-6 in the extra period to end Kentucky’s season. The rivalry became an annual regular season matchup and the Cats got revenge the following year at Rupp and in the 1984 Sweet 16.

The Moral of the Story

Early SEC Tournament exits provide a gloomy postseason forecast. A favorable draw may change things for this Kentucky basketball team, but a Sweet 16 appearance might be the best case scenario for John Calipari’s squad.