One winner for all 16 NCAA Tournament games on Thursday

Who’s ready for the best two days of the sports year? The NCAA Tournament tips off at noon on Thursday, and I’ve got winners picked for all 16 games on the opening day of March Madness.

Not necessarily winning teams, per se. But a winner for each game. What person, storyline or coach will win the headlines following these games? Let’s start with the opening game of the day.

(6) Colorado State vs. (11) Michigan | 12:15 p.m.

WINNER: NCAA Selection Committee. Bracketologists and college hoops fans in general were aghast at the Wolverines earring an at-large bid in this year’s tournament despite a 17-14 record. They didn’t even have to play in the First Four. Michigan made the Big Dance with room to spare. Compared to a team like Texas A&M that was left out, Michigan had no logical case to make the NCAA Tournament from a resume standpoint. But Thursday’s early slate will feature an “I told ya so” by the committee. Michigan’s superior athleticism and total talent will outmatch Colorado State and Juwan Howard’s group is likely headed to the second round. I hope this year’s chubby star David Roddy can pull the Rams over the Wolverines, but I fear Michigan may wind up making a tourney run it never deserved a shot at.

(4) Providence vs. (13) South Dakota State | 12:40 p.m.

WINNER: Friar Magic. The big LOSER here will be the analytics nerds who point to South Dakota State’s nation-leading 44.2% mark from three and their also-nation-leading effective field goal percentage as reasons the Jackrabbits will win. Apparently, Providence’s 25-5 record is sheer luck because the Friars went 8-0 in “close” games. Meanwhile, old-school basketball fans see Providence as a team that’s tough, has grit and can grind ’em out at the end. Maybe Providence is just great when the pressure rises as the end of games, or perhaps they are just downright lucky. Either way, the pot of gold isn’t running out on Saint Patrick’s Day. Give me Ed Cooley and the Friars in a close game with a wild finish.

(8) Boise State vs. (9) Memphis | 1:45 p.m.

WINNER: Penny Hardaway! It’ll be all heads up for Penny and his Memphis Tigers. Readers of my College Basketball Weekly posts will know that Memphis has turned things around dramatically since their midseason swoon. Emoni Bates left the lineup and the winning arrived in late January. They’re 12-2 since January 23rd with the sixth-best defense in the nation, per Bart Torvik. All that talent and experience is finally cohesive and I like Memphis to not just knock off Boise State but to give Gonzaga all that they can handle. Penny deserves credit for a heck of a turnaround.

(1) Baylor vs. (16) Norfolk State

WINNER: Baylor’s 2021 Championship. Parachute fans who tune in to college hoops only in the month of March probably forgot (if they even watched) that Baylor University won the 2021 NCAA National Championship. Baylor is going to blow the doors off Norfolk and I figure their 2021 run will get a lot of talk on the broadcast. I was a huge Bears supporter myself but often forget that they actually won the NCAA Tournament. Probably the least-prestiged program to win it all since…Arizona? I’m serious, look at the list of champions over the last 40 years. Most are either Blue Bloods or programs that were good for a long time before winning. Baylor’s rise from Big 12 afterthought to title-winner in just two years is historically nuts.

(3) Tennessee vs. (14) Longwood | 2:45 p.m.

WINNER: Tennessee Hype Train. Whew, you win one SEC Tournament and all of a sudden you’re the toast of the country. Tennessee stormed through a wild weekend in Tampa and is now a trendy Final Four pick in the NCAA Tournament. Their game against Longwood won’t cause any waver. Congrats to the Lancers on their inaugural tourney appearance but the Vols will wipe them away with their freakish speed and elite defense. Longwood may not break 40. Tennessee is going to look as good as they did last weekend. But don’t be fooled, the next few rounds won’t be as nice to Rick Barnes and company. They rank 241st in the nation in two-point field goal percentage. That ain’t a winning formula. Cool off from deep and the Vols are cooked against a good opponent.

(5) Iowa vs. (12) Richmond | 3:10 p.m.

WINNER: Murray Twins. How does Fran McCaffrey do it? Last season, Iowa center Luka Garza cruised to National Player of the Year honors as the second-leading scorer in the country at 24.1 points a game. He graduated and freshman Keegan Murray stepped into Garza’s place immediately to become the nation’s fourth-leading scorer as a sophomore in 2022 at 23.2 points a game. Unlike Garza, Murray is going to be a lottery pick and is arguably a more dangerous offensive player than the guy who won POY last season. The leading power conference scorer has been an Iowa Hawkeye for two straight seasons. Unbelievable. Keegan also has a twin brother, Kris, of the exact same size and weight, who scores nearly 10 a game and has flashed the ability to step in as the next great Iowa scorer once his brother departs. The Hawkeyes will go as far as the Murray’s take them.

(1) Gonzaga vs. (16) Georgia State | 4:15 p.m.

WINNER: Chet Holmgren. March Madness is generally the average NBA fan’s first walk in the park with the college basketball season. In an immense blowout of poor Georgia State, Gonzaga’s Chet Holmgren will look massive, child-like and dominant all at the same time. He’ll score like eight points, block seven shots and grab a dozen rebounds while hitting a 3-pointer or two and dribbling the ball up the court a few times. Scouts’ eyes will water and jaws will drop.

(8) North Carolina vs. (9) Marquette | 4:30 p.m.

WINNER: Shaka Smart. Smart just isn’t built for big stage coaching. In his six years at Texas, the Longhorns appeared in six NCAA Tournaments and lost in the first round each time, culminating in an upset loss last season to 14-seed Abeline Christian. Shaka Smart was far more successful in the postseason at VCU, where he made five straight NCAA Tournaments with the Rams, including a Final Four run as an 11-seed. At Marquette, he’s settled back into a smaller-stage job and exceeded expectations in year one. I have a feeling his Golden Eagles will catch this up-and-down North Carolina team looking ahead in the 8/9 matchup.

(5) UCONN vs. (12) New Mexico State | 6:50 p.m.

WINNER: Dan Hurley’s Angry Faces. John Calipari’s “mean mug” a few weeks ago was hilarious, but that’s a typical reaction from UCONN coach Dan Hurley.

Danny Hurley’s not-mad to extremely-mad face happens in a microsecond pic.twitter.com/6ckLCeCxrp

— Alejandro FitzOaxaca (@fitzy955) February 23, 2020

Those Hurley boys are quite animated on the sidelines during games. I suspect we’ll see a heavy dose of Hurley shenanigans, especially late in the game against New Mexico State. For those who love to pick a 5/12 upset, this is my pick. Under head coach Chris Jans, the Aggies have shared a WAC title in four of the last five seasons and made the NCAA Tournament in three of those seasons. Players such as Sir’Jabari Rice and Johnny McCants are veteran leaders and they added journeyman Teddy Allen — who had stops at Nebraska and West Virginia and now averages over 19 points a game for New Mexico State. A perennial mid-major power that is due an upset. Prepare to see several of Hurley’s wild facial contortions as UCONN blows this one late.

(2) Kentucky vs. (15) Saint Peter’s

WINNER: Kellan Grady’s shooting. Sure, Oscar Tshiebwe should feast on Saint Peter’s tiny front line. But I hope John Calipari uses the opportunity against an outmatched opponent to get Kellan Grady open and make 3-point shots once again. He and Davion Mintz are slumping heading into the NCAA Tournament. Concerning? A little bit. But slumps can snap with one or two made shots. Let’s throw up 25 triples and get our guys loose from deep to kick off a hopeful Final Four run.

(5) Saint Mary’s vs. (12) Indiana | 7:20 p.m.

WINNER: Mike Woodson. Woodson’s hire at Indiana last summer was roundly criticized. Unlike some of the program’s past hires, Woodson wasn’t a flashy hire or a big name. Not to the level of Archie Miller or Tom Crean. But shouldn’t the Hoosiers want to go in a different direction after those hires flopped? In year one, Woodson delivered all Indiana fans could ask for: the program’s first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2016. Tuesday night, he even picked up a win vs. Wyoming, IU’s first win in the Big Dance since beating Kentucky in ’16. Win or lose against Saint Mary’s, Indiana hoops is trending in the right direction, at last. And they are more than capable of beating the Gaels Thursday evening.

(8) San Diego State vs. (9) Creighton | 7:27 p.m.

WINNER: People named Ryan. Ryan Lemond finally has the perfect team to root for. Three of Creighton’s four leading scorers are all named Ryan. Ryan Hawkins and Ryan Kalkbrenner each score 13 points and grab seven rebounds a night while Ryan Nembhard starts at point guard. The latter is out for the season but he’ll be cheering on his fellow Ryan’s from the sidelines. The Blue Jays’ other leading scorer is former Dookie Alex O’Connell. Let’s see if this AOC can win some support in the Midwest Region. What a cast of names. I’ll take them over San Diego State.

(4) Arkansas vs. (13) Vermont | 9:20 p.m.

WINNER: Arkansas’ Athleticism. Vermont just won its sixth straight America East regular-season title and is going dancing for the third year during that span. Heck of a run for John Becker. But the Catamounts season will once again end in the round of 64. I think Arkansas is immune to mid-major upsets due to their freakish athleticism. Eric Musselman has trampoline-footed linebackers throughout his lineup and the SEC’s leading scorer running point. Vermont very well could have upset another four-seed, but not this one. Arkansas in a landslide.

(7) Murray State vs. (10) San Francisco | 9:40 p.m.

WINNER: State of Kentucky. San Francisco had three cracks at Gonzaga and failed to make any of the games competitive. C’mon, the Racers are gonna kill these guys to set up a second-round matchup for Kentucky. For the Murray-Kentucky crossover fans, a dream come true. Aside from Louisville, 2022 is a fantastic year of college basketball in the state. Bellarmine won their conference and Morehead nearly stole a bid by beating Murray in the OVC title. Let’s see Murray pick up its second NCAA Tournament win in the last four years to set up an inter-state battle in the Round of 32.

(4) UCLA vs. (13) Akron | 9:50 p.m.

WINNER: Johnny Juzang. Juzang was arguably the best player during last year’s NCAA Tournament. He averaged 22.8 points across UCLA’s six NCAA Tournament games, shooting 56.3% from the field and 40% from three. An all-time heater from the former Kentucky wing. The Bruins face Akron to open up this year’s run, and while MAC teams have won first-round games in the last three tournaments, Juzang and the rest of Mick Cronin’s squad have bigger fish to fry. Sorry Zips. UCLA scares me more than any other team in the top half of Kentucky’s region.

(1) Kansas vs. (16) Texas Southern | 9:57 p.m.

WINNER: People who fall asleep. Let’s applaud the committee for slotting this game as the latest on Thursday. Kansas is going to blow the doors off Texas Southern and you and I are better off catching some extra shut-eye ahead of another packed day of first-round action on Friday.