Kentucky will be an Underdog vs. Tennessee in the Sweet 16

by:Nick Roush•03/23/25•

RoushKSR

Kentucky Basketball, Jordan Prather-Imagn Images — (Jordan Prather-Imagn Images) Feb 11, 2025; Lexington, Kentucky, USA; Kentucky Wildcats guard Otega Oweh (00) dunks the ball during the second half against the Tennessee Volunteers at Rupp Arena at Central Bank Center.

Kentucky is back in the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2019. They’ll face a familiar foe in Indianapolis. As was the case the first two times they play, Kentucky is an underdog against Tennessee.

The Volunteers opened as a 4.5-point favorite over Kentucky. The total is 145.5. A moneyline better can get the Cats at +160.

The computers don’t differ too much from the spread. KenPom projects a 76-71 Tennessee win, while Bart Torvik forecasts a 74-71 win for the Vols.

Tennessee was a 10.5-point favorite when these teams first collided in Knoxville. Kentucky won by five points. The Vols were 3.5-point favorites when the Cats swept the regular season series with a 75-64 victory. The game in Knoxville went over, while the under hit in Lexington.

Get the On3 Top 10 to your inbox every morning

By clicking "Subscribe to Newsletter", I agree to On3's Privacy Notice, Terms, and use of my personal information described therein.

Tennessee ended the regular season with a loss at Ole Miss and they final in the SEC Tournament Title to Florida. Those are their only two losses in their last 11, dating back to the loss to the Cats at Rupp Arena. The Vols only covered three times during this stretch, and two of those were outright wins as underdogs. They easily covered a 5.5-point spread in a 67-58 victory over UCLA at Rupp Arena in the round of 32.

The Wildcats have covered the spread in each of their first two NCAA Tournament games after failing to cover in either SEC Tournament contest. Kentucky is 8-3 Against the Spread (ATS) this season with seven outright wins.

Kentucky has played plenty of rivals in NCAA Tournament games. The 1975 victory over Indiana comes to mind, as well as John Calipari’s two postseason victories over Louisville. They’ve faced four different SEC teams in the NCAA Tournament, two in the 1986 season, and most recently fell to Auburn in the 2019 Elite Eight. This will be the first time Kentucky and Tennessee have played in the NCAA Tournament.

Make sure you are LOCKED IN for March Madness. Join KSR+ to get bonus coverage of the Cats, including the latest recruiting and roster intel, basketball game threads, and in-depth scouting reports. Just $1 for a week.