The Path to a Kentucky Win over Louisville

There’s not a lot of optimism around the Big Blue Nation entering Saturday’s battle for the Governor’s Cup, and for good reason. The Kentucky football season is spiraling as the Cats have dropped five of their last six. They now face a Top 10 Louisville team that’s only lost once on their way to an ACC Championship Game.

It’s not just the wins and losses either. The inconsistent Cats just look… off. Mistakes quickly compound and the reaction from the sideline and the locker room is worrisome.

Nevertheless, Kentucky had held a decisive advantage in this series for a long time. The only loss for the Cats since 2015 was a Lamar Jackson revenge game. Kentucky has had the mental edge. Can Stoops find some more of that magic, like he did against Florida, to get the Cats up for a season-ending win? Here’s how.

Stop the Run

Jeff Brohm earned respect around the college football world for building a proficient passing game. WKU had the most productive passing offense in the country. It even worked at Purdue. They couldn’t run out the clock a year ago at Penn State, yet still won the Big Ten West without a formidable rushing attack. For the first time since Ace Wales was in Bowling Green, Brohm has some big play backs that are difference-makers.

This year Louisville’s offensive success depends on their ability to run the football. They rank 13th nationally in explosive run plays of 20+ yards (21), thanks to Jawhar Jordan. Even when he’s been limited by injuries over the last month of the season, Isaac Guerendo has filled in seamlessly, using his power to get hard yards before popping big plays, like the game-winner against Virginia.

Here’s the thing: only three teams in the country are better at limiting big plays in the run game than Kentucky. The Cats have given up just four runs of 20+ yards.

When Jack Plummer is forced to throw the football, he makes mistakes. The Louisville quarterback has attempted 25+ passes in only four games. One was a loss to Pitt, and the other three were one-score wins. If you make Plummer pass it enough, he’ll eventually throw the football to the defense. The Kentucky defense should be able to contain the Cards, but can the Wildcats produce points?

A Fast Start for Kentucky

Even though the UofL roster is filled with transfers, there are still plenty of players on that team have experienced back-breaking, devastating losses to the Wildcats. Their confidence is sky high, but if they get punched in the mouth early by Kentucky with a tone-setting opening quarter, doubt can creep into their minds.

Louisville plays an aggressive style of defense, manning up and bringing the blitz. If Devin Leary can withstand the heat and his wide receivers create separation, there will be opportunities to create explosive plays.

Herein lies the problem: Kentucky has trailed by two scores in three of the last four games. The Cats trailed by ten points to South Carolina and Tennessee, and fell behind 21-0 to Alabama before the fifth snap of the game. Even if the Cats do start fast, like they did against Missouri, there’s no evidence they can finish their opponent.

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Finish

To win a rivalry game against a top 10 team, you must take advantage of every opportunity available. When the quarterback fumbles the game away, the offense must go down the field and set up the kicker to deliver the dagger.

Alex Raynor has been solid all year, albeit lightly used. Louisville is dealing with a kicker issue. Brock Travelstead was benched in the middle of the Miami game for Nick Lopez, who came into the game and nailed a 40-yarder. Will either be able to deliver in a close game?

That’s an even bigger question for this Kentucky offense. Liam Coen’s group has lacked a killer instinct, failing to score one fourth quarter touchdown in close games against Missouri, Tennessee and South Carolina. If Kentucky can use some rivalry magic to manifest some offensive killer instinct, I’m telling you there’s a chance, even if it does feel like a slim one.