Phil Steele's Gloomy 2022 Kentucky Football Forecast

America’s favorite preseason college football magazine is on newsstands across the country. Now in its 28th season, Phil Steele’s 2022 College Football Preview is the most comprehensive college football preseason resource material. As always, it’s jam-packed with information, some of which Kentucky football fans may not agree with ahead of the most highly-anticipated season in years.

Kentucky’s Projected Finish

Starting QB Will Levis returns from a 10-win season with first round NFL Draft hype and 10 other starters, yet Kentucky is still picked to finish fourth in the SEC East behind Georgia, Tennessee and Florida. Kentucky is outside of the Top 25 in Phil Steele’s Power Poll at No. 35, two spots behind Louisville.

If you’re looking for an explanation, Steele and many others rely heavily on returning production when making preseason projections. Despite Levis’ return, Wan’Dale Robinson and Josh Ali depart after accounting for 68.4% of the quarterback’s passing yards. Darian Kinnard and Luke Fortner are good for a TON of lost starts, while the defense lost Josh Paschal and Yusuf Corker‘s play-making production. The Wildcats rank 77th nationally and seventh in the SEC in returning production.

Phil Steele leans heavily into the numbers, but is willing to acknowledge where the numbers come up short with certain teams.

“(Mark) Stoops almost always outperforms my expectations (sign of a very good coach),” he wrote.

Phil Steele Ranks Kentucky Position Groups

If any of Mark Stoops’ Wildcats need some bulletin board motivation, he provided some more by ranking only two position groups in the Top 25 nationally. He also ranked the Big Blue Wall 32 spots behind the Louisville Cardinals’ offensive line.

• Quarterback: 24
• Running Back: 17
• Wide Receivers: Not Ranked
• Offensive Line: 50
• Defensive Line: 30
• Linebackers: 31
• Defensive Backs: Not Ranked
• Special Teams: 49

One Reason Why Kentucky will Improve

Water always finds its level, particularly in the turnover department. Of course, it takes skill to jump passing lanes and pick off passes, but luck plays a significant role. Each year Phil Steele reveals which teams are destined for a turnaround thanks to bad turnover luck the year prior.

Based on data collected since 1990, there’s a 67.2% chance UK’s record will improve in 2022. This year there are seven teams in his turnover “Going Up” category. Last year 13 of the 14 teams in this category improved their record.

The Wildcats were an oddity last season. Kentucky went 5-6 in 2020 with a +10 turnover margin and 10-3 in 2021 wit a -11 turnover margin. The Wildcats defied Phil Steele’s trend. If they continue to defy his preseason projections, it will be a fun fall in Lexington.