Potential breakout candidates for Kentucky's postseason run

For the last few weeks, John Calipari has found a group of five players that he can rely on nearly every single night to come out and produce on the floor. That five consists of Cason Wallace and Chris Livingston, who were both voted to the SEC’s All-Freshman Team on Monday, along with Oscar Tshiebwe, who cracked the All-SEC First-Team for the second year in a row. That trio is joined by Antonio Reeves — the SEC’s Co-Sixth Man of the Year — and Jacob Toppin, who would have been in contention for the conference’s Most Improved Player award if such an honor were to exist.

Together, that five-man lineup, which has started five of the last seven games for Kentucky (or six of the last seven if you take away Brennan Canada receiving the start on Senior Night), has been playing at a very high level. According to college hoops statistician Evan Miyakawa, when those five have been on the floor together this season, they’ve posted an adjusted team efficient margin of 16.1, meaning that group is 16.1 points per 100 possessions better than the opposition. Not an elite number by any means, but one that results in winning basketball.

It’s not nearly as lethal as the UK lineup that swaps out Livingston for CJ Fredrick (which grades out as the most dangerous five-man lineup in all of college basketball by a significant margin, per Evan Miyakawa), but it’s certainly been working for the ‘Cats, which went 5-2 over that span. With Kentucky’s SEC Tournament run set to begin on Friday — and the NCAA Tournament not far after that — the five-man group of Wallace, Reeves, Livingston, Toppin, and Tshiebwe is going to be relied upon to show up and contribute for every single game.

But if Kentucky wants to make it deep into March this year, Calipari is going to need more than just those five players, which all averaged at least 33 minutes per game over the last seven outings, to make consistent impacts. First and foremost, he needs a healthy Cason Wallace, who did not play in the regular season finale against Arkansas due to a lower leg injury. Wallace will likely be ready to roll for the SEC Tournament after having over a week in between games to heal up, but to say he’ll be 100 percent the rest of the season feels like a stretch considering he’s been dealing with back spasms for a good chunk of the season, as well.

The Big Blue Nation knows it can bank on the recent starting five to show up (when healthy) more often than not, but what happens if someone (or multiple someones) has an off night or another ill-timed injury pops up? Sahvir Wheeler‘s status remains murky as he’s now missed the last eight games due to injury for Kentucky and could be out for the entire SEC Tournament.

The same goes for Fredrick, who has appeared in three straight games for the ‘Cats after missing the previous four but is clearly playing hurt with a cracked rib. When Fredrick has been on the floor, it’s been more about relieving minutes off the shoulders of Wallace and Reeves rather than hunting shots and running the offense. He has just eight (2-9 FG) total points across 50 minutes since his return.

Wheeler and Fredrick could certainly still be those breakout impact players — Wheeler could return by the NCAA Tournament and Fredrick will ideally only get healthier from here — but we’re going to dive deeper down the bench in search of more relief. Plus, those two have been significant contributors all season long when they suit up. We’re looking for someone who might have to step into an unfamiliar role. That leaves us with just a handful of options as potential breakout candidates heading into the postseason: Adou Thiero, Daimion Collins, Lance Ware, and Ugonna Onyenso.

Starting with Thiero, the freshman guard feels like the obvious choice to have a breakout stretch. If Wheeler is unable to go while Fredrick and Wallace are still playing below 100 percent, the backcourt is going to need some help at some point. Thiero has struggled as the primary initiator over the last couple of weeks but has proven himself as a guy with an endless motor. He’s averaging 11.8 minutes during SEC games this season but with just 2.6 points on 31.8 percent shooting.

There’s no denying his hustle, though. During postseason play, that’s nothing to scoff at. Thiero went for seven points, five rebounds, two assists, one steal, and two turnovers in UK’s most recent win over Arkansas, logging a season-high 24 minutes. He made a third of his shots (2-6) and only half of his free throws (3-6), but flushed down a putback dunk and fought on every 50/50 ball. If he does that in a postseason game, Kentucky’s chances of winning will soar. There is plenty of value in Thiero; the question becomes whether or not he can score 10-12 points to shift the momentum of a game. He’s scored 12 points combined over his last three contests. Thiero will be the first to have a shot at a breakout role.

The next likeliest pick from the group is Collins, who showed more spurts as a breakout candidate during his freshman campaign in 2021-22 than he has so far in 2022-23. But that doesn’t mean he can’t provide a “Marcus Lee against Michigan in 2014” type of impact in the postseason. Rim-running and shot-blocking can go a long way in injecting a double-digit scoring run. The postseason is more about matchups than anything else, and there will certainly be an opponent or two (most likely in the NCAA Tournament) that hasn’t faced off against a player of his prototype. Collins will be the first one thrown in if foul trouble hits the likes of Toppin or Tshiebwe.

Ware is the player with the least amount of shock value in his game of these four, but he’s a capable defender who can rough up the action. How valuable will that be come tournament time? Again, it might be matchup dependent, which will hold more weight as we enter the NCAA Tournament where the opponent won’t be a familiar SEC foe. Unfortunately, he provides little on the offensive end. At least with Collins, Kentucky has a slightly better threat to score a basket. Ware is a third-year veteran though. If anyone is going to have a level head with additional postseason minutes, he’s the safe bet.

Then there’s Onyenso, the seven-foot rookie who impressed early on against weaker competition but has since struggled against the likes of the SEC. He’s played just 17 minutes across five outings during conference play for a combined total of two points, six rebounds, and one block. It would be unfair to expect anything more out of him as he gets his first taste of the postseason. If Onyenso is playing 5-10 minutes per game for Kentucky the rest of the season, it likely means something else has gone wrong.

In short, Kentucky doesn’t have many options beyond the current starting five and a pair of guards on the mend. But Calipari also doesn’t need much more than that — he just needs a handful of moments where one of Thiero, Collins, or Ware can step in to keep the ship from sinking. With a mostly healthy Wallace and Fredrick in the lineup, Kentucky can compete with just about anybody. That being said, it would make the ‘Cats even tougher to beat if a bench player popped off for 10-plus points in the second round of the NCAA Tournament.