Picks for every NFL Super Wild Card Weekend Game

Super Wild Card Weekend is here. It’s going to be glorious. The extra playoff team for each conference has created additional game for the opening round of the NFL Playoffs and it is a spectacle, quickly becoming one of my favorite football weekend’s of the year.

The thing I’ve learned about sports wagering, particularly the NFL, is to choose wisely. Betting every game because you’ll be watching every game is irresponsible behavior. Choosing two or three of your favorites and locking in picks is the only way to maintain your sanity (and bankroll). However, this is a weekend where you can bend those rules. Allow me to share some thoughts, picks and/or leans for every game on Super Wild Card Weekend. But first, a shout out to our friends at FanDuel for their partnership this season. New customers get $150 in BONUS BETS, GUARANTEED when you place a $5 bet! Head to FanDuel.com/PIGSKIN.

Browns (-2.5) at Texans, Saturday, 4:30, NBC

The Cleveland Browns are favorites in a playoff game. Are we sure that’s right? Exactly.

As Adam Luckett pointed out last night on 11 Personnel, riding with the better quarterback is never a bad idea, especially if that quarterback is at home. I know, I know, Joe Flacco is elite, but CJ Stroud is the future and he’s getting points. I’ll take them. This is also a nice emotional hedge as I’ll be spending the afternoon with my in-laws who are all Browns fans.

Pick: Houston +2.5

Dolphins (+4.5) at Chiefs, Saturday, 8:15, Peacock

The Dolphins have been a highly entertaining topic of conversation throughout the season. The online community has proclaimed them frauds, and rightfully so. The Patriots beat more teams with a better than .500 record than the Dolphins.

Meanwhile, many are blindly seeing the Chiefs logo, Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce, then assuming these Chiefs are actually those Chiefs that won a couple of Super Bowls and hosted a bunch of AFC Championship Games. The receivers stink and they’re due to lay an egg.

The problem is, can Miami actually do it in a frigid environment? Only if they’re completely healthy. Jaylen Waddle and Raheem Mostert practiced on Thursday. The Fins might have a chance to pull this off, if Tua doesn’t fall apart in crunch time.

Lean: Dolphins +4.5

Steelers (+10) at Bills, Sunday, 1:00, CBS

This is gross. Everything about this game is disgusting in all of the right ways. Sustained winds near 25 mph, gusts potentially over 50 mph and a wind chill in the single digits. It’s exactly what a guy named Rudolph needs to succeed, right?

Set those Christmas puns aside. The Steelers don’t have TJ Watt, essentially eliminating any hope for a win or a cover. Ugly weather is the only thing keeping them in this, but it’s still too scary to play. After all, you’d have to trust Mason Rudolph to complete passes. He hasn’t completed more than 18 in a regular game and his total on Sunday is 16.5. I’ll take the under for that prop in the middle of this meteorological mess. Even if the weather doesn’t clear up, it’s difficult to see this one becoming a high-flying affair.

Pick: Under 36.5

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Packers (+7) at Cowboys, Sunday, 4:30, Fox

The Cowboys are a wagon at home, covering the spread in six of eight games. Dak Prescott has weapons everywhere and the Packers defense is a sieve. This could get ugly. There’s just one problem.

Mike McCarthy.

We’ve all seen this before. Now he has a chance to blow it in the playoffs against his former team. You can envision it clearly. McCarthy is axed before Jerry Jones goes to bed and by Tuesday one of these amazing coaches that’s available on the market will be wearing a star on their shirt.

All it takes is another spectacularly accurate performance from Jordan Love and a fresh, healthy Aaron Jones gashing a Cowboys defense that’s susceptible against the run to make this dream become a reality.

Lean: Packers ML Sprinkle +265

Rams (+3) at Lions, Sunday, 8:15, NBC

This is the best game of Super Wild Card Weekend and it’s not even close. Even without the obvious storylines, like the fact that these teams traded quarterbacks, this matchup is incredible.

The Lions are hosting a playoff game at night for the first time since 1991. Ford Field is going to be on fire. On the other sideline, Sean McVay has been cooking and this Lions defense is bad, like really, really bad. McVay is going to scheme guys open downfield in between busted coverages and Matt Stafford is going to score some points.

The Lions are pretty, pretty good at scoring points too. I’m still not sure if I can bet against Dan Campbell but I will happily take the over and prepare for fireworks to fly.

Pick: Over 51.5

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Eagles (-3) at Bucs, Monday, 8:00, ESPN

The Eagles are spiraling. They’ve lost five of their last six games, two of which were to the Cardinals and Giants. Nick Sirianni is on the hot seat just a year after taking the Eagles to the Super Bowl, and yet they’re favored against the Bucs?

This game is weird. Some might call it stinky.

The Bucs conquered the worst division in the NFL to make it to this stage. It feels like Baker Mayfield has willed Tom Brady’s old team into the postseason. They’ve pulled a reverse-Philly and won five of their last six. Can they keep getting away with this?

Riding the hot hand doesn’t seem like a bad idea, but it’s not good enough for me to make a pick on Friday. Hopefully there’s enough bankroll to allow me to sprinkle on Monday night, and if I do, it’s probably fading these inconsistent offenses to cap off Super Wild Card Weekend.

Lean: Under 43.5