Projecting Kentucky Tight End Production in 2023 

Earlier this week I made the case for the Kentucky receivers to catch 200 passes this fall for the Wildcats. We analyzed total and percentage of catches from the wideouts. The article also compared receiver efficacy in the 2022 season under Rich Scangarello to 2021 with Liam Coen calling the plays. Today, I’m going to analyze the tight end position in a similar fashion. 

Kentucky Tight End Production in 2021

Liam Coen’s offense really took off toward the end of the 2021 season. Tight ends in his system combined to catch 36 passes for 438 yards and 7 touchdowns. Justin Rigg led the group with 20 receptions, 189 yards and 4 touchdowns. Izayah Cummings was second with 14 catches but had more yards than Rigg (195) and reached the end zone on 3 occasions. Jordan Dingle rounded out the trio with 2 catches for 54 yards. 

A closer analytical analysis shows that the UK tight ends managed 14.8% of the team’s receptions but contributed 29% of all touchdown catches. Coen utilized multiple tight end sets, much like the NFL. But the coordinator only had three viable options for most of the season as Brenden Bates battled injuries following Keaton Upshaw’s unfortunate season-ending injury during fall camp.

Kentucky Tight End Production in 2022

Rich Scangarello’s lone season in Lexington saw the Wildcat tight ends catch 41 passes for 494 yards and 4 touchdown receptions. While the total catches (41 to 36) and receiving yards(494-438) were higher than the prior year, the group caught three fewer touchdown receptions. The decline in tight end scoring catches was evident throughout UK’s season-long struggles in the Red Zone. 

Last year’s tight ends made up for 18.3% of all receptions but dropped to 19% of touchdown catches after recording 29% the season prior. More players did get into the action. Redshirt freshman Jordan Dingle paced the room with 20 catches, 220 yards, and 3 touchdowns. Senior Brenden Bates snagged 10 passes for 99 yards and 1 score. 

True freshman Josh Kattus flashed promising traits at the end of the season. He managed 7 receptions for 125 yards. Keaton Upshaw transferred out of the program following the season after registering just 4 catches for 50 yards. Izayah Cummings was a rising star in the 2021 season but oddly didn’t record a single reception in 2022. 

What the Tight Ends May Look Like in 2023

Barring an unforeseen injury, Liam Coen will have a full allotment of tight ends at his disposal in 2023. And, the play caller has proven to favor multiple tight end sets and personnel groupings. Brenden Bates returned for a Super Senior season. He’s joined by promising sophomores Jordan Dingle and Josh Kattus. Senior Izayah Cummings was a Coen favorite in 2021 and will hopefully return to being a more involved contributor in 2023. 

There is a reasonable possibility that Kentucky will have three tight ends with 20+ catches in 2023. Izayah Cummings could return to be frequently targeted in Coen’s system. Jordan Dingle and Josh Kattus are both capable of having breakout years as well. Brenden Bates is likely going to be utilized in heavy or jumbo sets. Bates is also a sneaky effective pass catcher especially in the Red Zone. 

Talk around the program has highlighted the potential of true freshman Khamari Anderson. The 6-foot-5, 240-pound tight end from Detroit powerhouse high school Cass Tech has the measurables, maturity, and temperament to factor if necessary. 

Vince Marrow will likely test the 4-game redshirt limit for Anderson. But, I could also see the freshman be a full-time player as well. That would give Coen and Marrow 5 potential tight ends for the 2023 season. The higher than historical number of exceptional tight ends could increase the position’s total catches, but may limit one particular player from reaching the 30-reception level.

What Does All This Mean? 

I made the claim that the UK wide receivers could collectively reach 200 receptions in 2023. There’s going to be tight ends that also factor in Coen’s system. The play-caller has shown favor in directing personnel groupings and sets that frequently feature multiple tight ends. 

While coming up with a number of receptions per player is challenging, I can see the room combining for 50 receptions and exceeding 25% of all catches. The position could also reach 15 touchdowns.

Like projecting the wide receivers, the number of catches, percentage of receptions and touchdowns is heavily reliant upon how well the Cats’ offensive line protects Devin Leary. I can’t emphasize enough just how important it will be to keep Leary on his feet in the pocket. Coen has to limit the number of hits that his prize transfer takes as well. 

I’m excited about the Kentucky tight end group. I like how Coen targets the position in the Red Zone. His season in Lexington produced just 14.8% of total catches, but he only consistently had two or three tight ends at his disposal. He has at least four going into fall camp that can be considered starter level contributors. I hope to see more Izayah Cummings. Kattus and Dingle are potential high-risers. Brenden Bates is a crafty veteran that leads the pack. Khamari Anderson is an exciting addition. 

72 days.