Projecting Kentucky's Final Regular Season Record
[caption id="attachment_151269" align="alignnone" width="573"]
Photo from Chet White, UKAthletics[/caption]
While John Calipari and his team are undoubtedly focused on Saturday's primetime bout with the Gators of Florida, the fans are focusing on any number of subjects at the current time. While some are still lamenting over Wednesday's mediocre performance against Auburn, others are talking about the revised expectations of the basketball squad moving into the postseason. Conversations certainly differ depending on who you talk with, but there's one thing every Kentucky fan has discussed at some point this season - the NCAA Tournament. Depending upon which Bracketologist you subscribe to, Kentucky is currently in the 3/4 range in terms of seeding, but as we all know, there's a lot of basketball yet to be played. Because many are trying to predict the Cats' future, I thought I'd use some of the internet's most reliable computer ratings to aid the discussion.
One of the coolest features about Ken Pomeroy's site in past years were the running graphs at the top of team pages that estimated the probability to win "X" number of games. For whatever reason, Pomeroy decided to eliminate those probabilities this season - replacing the graphs with the most likely record for a team instead. Given that these very useful visuals were eliminated, I decided to recreate them using his data and some very basic math. I then decided to take things one step further by using Jeff Sagarin's and Ken Massey's respective ratings to ensure the most reasonable predictions. Below, you'll see the probability for every potential record over the next seven games according to the three respective computer models.
[caption id="attachment_151665" align="alignnone" width="600"]
Data via KenPom.com[/caption]
According to Pomeroy's system, there's roughly a 37% chance to finish with a 5-2 record over the next seven games, making it the most likely scenario. However, a 6-1 finish certainly isn't out of the question as Pomeroy's data sees this as the second most likely option at 26.4%. The third most probable option after that would be 4-3 as there's roughly a 23% chance of that occurring. Interestingly enough, a 3-4 record is more likely than an undefeated record to finish the regular season, albeit slightly.
[caption id="attachment_151666" align="alignnone" width="600"]
Data via USA Today & Jeff Sagarin[/caption]
Amazingly enough, Kentucky's probabilities according to Sagarin are nearly identical to Pomeroy's system. Again, a 5-2 record is the most likely scenario to finish the regular season. Not only is a 6-1 record the second most likely scenario according to Sagarin, but the percentages remained nearly identical to Pomeroy's. In fact, every single one of Sagarin's percentages are within a few digits of Pomeroy's.
[caption id="attachment_151667" align="alignnone" width="600"]
Data via MasseyRatings.com[/caption]
It isn't until we use Ken Massey's ratings until we get some different results. However, with that being said, the projections don't change too much. A 5-2 record is still the most likely scenario according to Massey's data, however, a 6-1 record has a better chance of occurring when compared with the other two models. Both Pomeroy's and Sagarin's ratings gave Kentucky roughly a 25% chance to finish 6-1, but Massey's ratings give the Cats a 31% chance.
It's anyone's guess as to how the Cats will finish the regular season. Not only are we scheduled to take on an elite Florida squad twice in the coming weeks, but we must also travel to Ole Miss to take on the free-shooting Marshall Henderson. Even though Kentucky handled the Rebels with relative ease at Rupp - as the Auburn game taught us - it isn't easy to come away with a road victory in conference. Three of the most notable rating systems currently see Kentucky finishing with two more losses during the regular season, giving the Cats a final record of 24-7. To me, these are very realistic expectations as both Florida games will be absolute battles that could go either way. Also, there's no guarantee of a road win in Oxford despite Mississippi's mid-week struggles. Either way, let's use this objective data to aid our opinions. How do you see Kentucky finishing the regular season?
Photo from Chet White, UKAthletics[/caption]
While John Calipari and his team are undoubtedly focused on Saturday's primetime bout with the Gators of Florida, the fans are focusing on any number of subjects at the current time. While some are still lamenting over Wednesday's mediocre performance against Auburn, others are talking about the revised expectations of the basketball squad moving into the postseason. Conversations certainly differ depending on who you talk with, but there's one thing every Kentucky fan has discussed at some point this season - the NCAA Tournament. Depending upon which Bracketologist you subscribe to, Kentucky is currently in the 3/4 range in terms of seeding, but as we all know, there's a lot of basketball yet to be played. Because many are trying to predict the Cats' future, I thought I'd use some of the internet's most reliable computer ratings to aid the discussion.
One of the coolest features about Ken Pomeroy's site in past years were the running graphs at the top of team pages that estimated the probability to win "X" number of games. For whatever reason, Pomeroy decided to eliminate those probabilities this season - replacing the graphs with the most likely record for a team instead. Given that these very useful visuals were eliminated, I decided to recreate them using his data and some very basic math. I then decided to take things one step further by using Jeff Sagarin's and Ken Massey's respective ratings to ensure the most reasonable predictions. Below, you'll see the probability for every potential record over the next seven games according to the three respective computer models.
[caption id="attachment_151665" align="alignnone" width="600"]
Data via KenPom.com[/caption]
According to Pomeroy's system, there's roughly a 37% chance to finish with a 5-2 record over the next seven games, making it the most likely scenario. However, a 6-1 finish certainly isn't out of the question as Pomeroy's data sees this as the second most likely option at 26.4%. The third most probable option after that would be 4-3 as there's roughly a 23% chance of that occurring. Interestingly enough, a 3-4 record is more likely than an undefeated record to finish the regular season, albeit slightly.
[caption id="attachment_151666" align="alignnone" width="600"]
Data via USA Today & Jeff Sagarin[/caption]
Amazingly enough, Kentucky's probabilities according to Sagarin are nearly identical to Pomeroy's system. Again, a 5-2 record is the most likely scenario to finish the regular season. Not only is a 6-1 record the second most likely scenario according to Sagarin, but the percentages remained nearly identical to Pomeroy's. In fact, every single one of Sagarin's percentages are within a few digits of Pomeroy's.
[caption id="attachment_151667" align="alignnone" width="600"]
Data via MasseyRatings.com[/caption]
It isn't until we use Ken Massey's ratings until we get some different results. However, with that being said, the projections don't change too much. A 5-2 record is still the most likely scenario according to Massey's data, however, a 6-1 record has a better chance of occurring when compared with the other two models. Both Pomeroy's and Sagarin's ratings gave Kentucky roughly a 25% chance to finish 6-1, but Massey's ratings give the Cats a 31% chance.
It's anyone's guess as to how the Cats will finish the regular season. Not only are we scheduled to take on an elite Florida squad twice in the coming weeks, but we must also travel to Ole Miss to take on the free-shooting Marshall Henderson. Even though Kentucky handled the Rebels with relative ease at Rupp - as the Auburn game taught us - it isn't easy to come away with a road victory in conference. Three of the most notable rating systems currently see Kentucky finishing with two more losses during the regular season, giving the Cats a final record of 24-7. To me, these are very realistic expectations as both Florida games will be absolute battles that could go either way. Also, there's no guarantee of a road win in Oxford despite Mississippi's mid-week struggles. Either way, let's use this objective data to aid our opinions. How do you see Kentucky finishing the regular season?
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