Razor-thin margin of error plagues Cats once again

Make that three top-10 teams to lose this week. First it was No. 5 Tennessee at home to South Carolina, then No. 3 North Carolina on the road at 10-11 Georgia Tech less than an hour later. Unranked Northwestern led No. 2 Purdue by one with 37 seconds left, but snuck through with a win in overtime to avoid the upset. It could’ve and should’ve been the same result for No. 10 Kentucky, who led Florida by four points with 37 seconds to go in regulation.

Second-chance layup for the Gators, 1-2 at the line for the Cats, then a made 3-pointer by Walter Clayton Jr. — the guy who hit six threes in regulation and seven overall — with five seconds to go. That came after deciding to let things ride out rather than fouling up three in the final seconds, a judgment call that came with one clear and obvious rule: no threes.

“There was a little more time than we wanted, but everything we were doing was to make them shoot some two,” John Calipari said. “The kid drove in the lane and one of my guys just left his man, they threw it out. … We talked about it, I said, ‘Let’s play this out, but make sure they’re not getting threes.'”

Kentucky gave up a three to the one guy you couldn’t give a three. Overtime.

A win there for the taking

It was a game the Wildcats shot better overall (45% vs. 41%), scored more points per possession (1.18 vs. 1.13) and led for nearly 30 minutes while losing the rebounding battle by just two — Coach Cal said losing by three in that category was “outrebounding them” in Gainesville — and still lost the game.

Parity in college basketball is at an all-time high, contending teams seemingly losing every day at this point to reshuffle the deck when poll voters pretend to know what they’re talking about each week. Florida entered the day undefeated in Quad 2-4 matchups (14-0), but 0-6 in Quad 1 games. Zero bad or even mediocre losses, but desperate for a statement victory. Then you include the revenge factor after the Cats stole the win in the O’Dome with a go-ahead 3-pointer down the stretch. The Gators were going to come in ready to play.

But Kentucky came to play, too. It wasn’t flat, selfish play killing ball movement and leading to bad shots. The Cats made shots, four players in double figures and three with 19 or more and 10 3-pointers for 91 total points. That’s almost always enough for a win. This group, though, has now lost two games hitting the 90-point threshold and is now back down to No. 75 in defensive efficiency after jumping up 28 spots by holding Arkansas to 57 points just four days before.

“Well, this is a better team,” Calipari said.

Discipline concerns aren’t going away

Kentucky held Florida to just 41.0% shooting overall on 78 shots — a strong number, for sure. The issue? 12 of its 32 makes came from three — seven in the second half and overtime — with the Gators drilling 43% of those, 10 percent higher than their season average.

“A couple of 3s late,” Calipari added. “If we don’t give those up, you know.”

But Kentucky did give those up and Florida is a better team than Arkansas. It’s a tournament team. Of this group’s five losses, the Cats gave up 79 or more in all five and 89 or more in three. Even in the team’s pair of Quad 1 victories, North Carolina scored 83 while Florida dropped 85 in Gainesville. They’re now 2-3 in such opportunities and 5-4 in Quad 1 and 2 games.

A lot of it does come down to a shot here and there falling to pad the numbers a bit, but it’s not an excuse. It’s simply a lack of discipline, something this team just has not yet proven it has. And the clock is ticking on dreams of a turnaround — at some point, you simply are who you are.

Playing with fire (and getting burned)

Take the end of the first half for example. You use a 12-1 run to take a 10-point lead with 1:10 to go, only to give up a 5-0 run in the final minute to make it a two-score game at the break. Discipline. That led to a 6-0 run for the Gators in the first minute-plus of the second to retake the lead. Momentum wiped away completely, paving the path for a track meet the rest of the way, both teams shooting above 46% in the second half with neither side pushing ahead by more than four with 12 lead changes and nine ties. 48 points for the road team, 43 for the home team. Five minutes of free basketball.

“Once we got it to overtime, it kind of felt like we were playing with house money at that point,” Florida coach Todd Golden said. “We weren’t nervous about anything.”

Kentucky played with fire and got burned once again. Seven points in overtime on 2-8 shooting, 1-4 from three and 2-4 at the line. Florida scored 10 on 2-6 shooting, 1-3 from three and 5-6 at the line.

A theme of one play here, one play there

It’s kind of ironic and a bit on the nose, right? The margin of error with this team is astronomically thin and has been all year. Why wouldn’t five minutes of an extra period reflect that almost perfectly? It was the story of the game, just as it’s been the story of the season.

Hell, if Rob Dillingham makes one more free throw with 13 seconds left, Kentucky wins. One defensive rebound on either of Tyrese Samuel’s second-chance layups in the final 1:39. One stop any of the three times the Cats went up four in the last eight minutes (two in the last two). It really is just a play here or a play there with this team.

“A few things in the end that hurt us. … Every team in the SEC is really, really good. It’s hard to win SEC games — home or away, it doesn’t matter,” Reed Sheppard said. “We’ll keep getting better in late-game situations, what to do. We were right there today, made a few errors. Missed some shots, left some guys open.

“But we’ll be OK. We’ll learn from it and keep getting better.”

With just 11 games left in the regular season, though, Kentucky is running out of runway. As the offense continues to put this team in position to take off, the defense forces you to pump the brakes.