Reasons for Optimism Around Kentucky Basketball

If you took a straw poll of Big Blue Nation, this may be the low point of the Coach Calipari era. Coronavirus stripped fans of an opportunity to watch an exciting 2019-2020 team in the NCAA Tournament. Then, the 2020-2021 season was arguably the worst in program history. The Kentucky Basketball program appeared to be back on track in 2021-2022, but an embarrassing first round loss to #15 seed Saint Peter’s brought the season to a screeching halt.

Dissent and unrest is at an all-time high for Kentucky fans. Some of that is warranted because the blue-blood history would tell us that 9-16 seasons and first round exits are unacceptable. However, it shouldn’t be all doom and gloom.

There was a lot of talk on the Kentucky Sports Radio morning show throughout the week about the pulse of the fanbase. Should fans be worried about the trajectory of the Kentucky Basketball program? What percentage of fans are satisfied with the job Coach Calipari is doing? What needs to happen next season to get the fanbase back on board? On Wednesday, our fearless leader Matt Jones asked to hear from optimistic fans to get their point of view. That is what we will do in this article as well. There are reasons for optimism. There are reasons to stand by Coach Calipari moving forward. Also, most importantly, there are reasons to still be a proud Kentucky Basketball fan.

The Season Was a Good One

Okay, don’t freak out. Losing to #15 seed Saint Peter’s in the first round is embarrassing, unacceptable, and should never happen. In NCAA Tournament history there have only between ten #15 seed over #2 seed upsets which shows how uncommon it is. However, one loss, regardless of who it is to, does not erase an entire season of success. It may have felt that way when you woke up on March 18th and it probably still feels that way today. However, at some point, we will recognize a 26-7 record heading into the NCAA Tournament with #2 seed for what it was. A successful basketball season.

If we have learned anything as college basketball fans it is that March Madness always lives up to its name. While Saint Peter’s over Kentucky is extremely rare, the tournament can be random. Program success is most accurately measured by what you do over the course of months from early November to mid-March and not in a win-or-go home atmosphere.

Was the 2017-2018 team really more successful because they made it to the Sweet 16? That group went 26-11 and was a #5 seed in the NCAA Tournament. How about the 27-9 team in 2015-2016 that lost to Indiana in the second round? The truth is that Kentucky Basketball has fallen victim to some bad timing. The 2019-2020 team was 25-6, won the Southeastern Conference by three games, and was on the way to a #2 seed before the season abruptly ended. Fast forward to this season and the ‘Cats earned another #2 seed with a 25-6 regular season. Again, the Saint Peter’s loss is terrible, but it cannot be allowed to cloud the greater picture simply because of WHEN it happened in the course of history.

It is really hard to win college basketball games. Coach Calipari, and presumably all ration fans, would sign up for 25-6 regular seasons with a #2 NCAA Tournament seed every single season. From there, you will play things out and let the chips fall where they may. Sometimes that gets you to an Elite 8. Other times you will catch lightening in a bottle and get to the Final Four or even further. However, unfortunately, sometimes you will also suffer defeat before you are ready for things to end. Kentucky Basketball fans, coaches, and players alike don’t have to experience that feeling often.

More Help is on the Way

Throughout the ups and downs of the last couple years, Kentucky has continued to pull in top two recruiting classes every season. If there has been a criticism of Coach Calipari in recent years it has been that he has failed to pull in true top five talent. While that isn’t completely true, it is at least a fair topic to bring up beginning with the 2017 class. However, so far, Coach Cal has signed #7 Chris Livingston and #8 Cason Wallace. Both of these guys have the potential to be game-changing players from day one.

Livingston, a 6’6″ wing from Oak Hill Academy, will immediately provide size, strength, and athleticism out on the perimeter. Wallace, a 6’4″ combo guard from Richardson, Texas, is an elite two-way player that will bring a lot of the skills that TyTy Washington brought to the table. As the coaching carousel continues to turn there could be more recruits become available over the next few weeks. Also, Coach Calipari proved that he can dominate the transfer portal last offseason as well.

More Returners Than Usual?

The 2021-2022 Kentucky Basketball team was made up differently than usual. TyTy Washington was a five-star prospect, but ranked “just” 15th in his class. The rest of the starting lineup consisted of three transfers and junior Keion Brooks. In stark contrast to the traditional young faces, Coach Calipari had a veteran group this season.

Another difference was that, outside of fringe lottery pick TyTy Washington, the Wildcats didn’t have surefire NBA prospects. Especially with the new Name, Imagine, Likeness landscape, could that mean that there will be more returners to next season’s team? That will play itself out over the next couple of months, but it certainly is worth considering. If a player like Oscar Tshiebwe returns, the likely National Player of the Year, that would be a game-changer. Getting a second year of Sahvir Wheeler, who was one of five finalists for the Bob Cousy award, certainly wouldn’t hurt either.

There is no sense in spending too much time on this subject in March. Trying to guess who returns, who goes pro, or who transfers is a fool’s errand. However, it is still true that this team COULD have more continuity than we have seen in a long time. When paired with elite freshman talent another portal addition or two there could be a scary combination of talent in Lexington next season.

Kentucky Basketball Will be Okay

This isn’t the time to use Coach Calipari cliches like “Kentucky will always eat first.” It is understandable that fans don’t want to hear that right now. However, when you look at the past there is no reason to worry about the future. The ‘Cats are 365-101 in Coach Cal’s 13 seasons at the helm. There have been 82 NCAA champions crowned since the tournament was founded in 1939. That means Kentucky has won just under 10% of the total NCAA Men’s Basketball championships. Only half of those titles have came since 1958 though.

The Wildcats have one championship in 13 years under Coach Calipari. That is a “success” rate of 7.69%. Kentucky has won 6.35% of the titles since 1959. So, he is actually still ahead of the pace. Coach Cal still has three more seasons to win one before he falls behind the pace of championships in the modern era of Kentucky Basketball.

All fans want Final Fours and championships more often than they get them. That is part of being a fan. However, we as Big Blue Nation were spoiled by the 2010-2015 run that was so incredibly successful. It can be easy to forget there was a NIT season in there as well though. The parity in college basketball, and especially in recruiting, continues to increase every season. We likely won’t see many runs of consecutive championship games, Final Fours, etc. for awhile.

Kentucky was a play away from the Final Four in 2019. The 2020 tournament was ripped away from us due to an event we may never see again. Losing to Saint Peter’s stinks. There is no getting around that. However, one loss doesn’t, or at least shouldn’t, change our overall opinion of an otherwise storied program. Expecting Final Fours every season is unrealistic. Being unrealistic sometimes is part of being a fan, but it also leads to unfair criticism when things don’t go as “you” want.

Moving Forward

As long as the Kentucky Basketball program keeps crushing the recruiting trail, competing for SEC championships, and earning top seeds in the NCAA Tournament things will eventually work out. It may not happen next year, it may not happen as often as some fans would like, but history would say that it WILL work out. A coaches job is to put his team in the best position to compete. There aren’t many that do that on a consistent basis as well as Coach Calipari. The proof is in the overall body of work.

This season will sting for awhile. Every end to a Kentucky Basketball season stings and that is especially true this year with the loss to Saint Peter’s. However, it doesn’t have to be doom and gloom. The offseason will hopefully heal some wounds for the fanbase. The ‘Cats will be back next season and in a position to make a run once again.

I like my team.