Reed Sheppard named ESPN's most surprising freshman

“Who is number one in the country in plus/minus?” Kentucky head coach John Calipari asked Tom Leach on his call-in radio show Monday evening.

“That would be young Mr. Sheppard,” Leach responded.

“He’s number one — listen to me — in the country.” Reed Sheppard is a +127 on the year with zero games in the negatives. Even in Kentucky’s 89-84 loss to top-ranked Kansas he was a +3 in just under 16 minutes. Two games later he was a team-high +16 despite finishing with zero points on just one shot attempt.

No matter the circumstances, the dude just impacts winning.

“He had a game where he scored no points and led us in plus/minus. That’s just — I’ve never heard of such a thing,” Calipari said. “How about the end of the game where he’s taking it out (of bounds), he’s throwing bombs deep to finish the game off? Tyler Ulis looked at me and said, ‘I wouldn’t have the courage to throw that pass.’ This kid has no fear.”

ESPN singles out Sheppard as an early star

Sheppard is averaging 10.8 points on 67% shooting and 67% from three to go with 3.7 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 3.2 steals and 1.0 blocks in 23 minutes per game. The counting numbers look good and he’s obviously passing the eye test. But that plus/minus is what’s turning heads nationally — and why ESPN’s Jonathan Givony believes the Kentucky standout could be in the one-and-done conversation by year’s end.

“Box plus-minus is arguably the most useful of the catchall stats. Four of the players ranked No. 1 over the past five seasons — Trayce Jackson-Davis (2023), Keegan Murray (2022), Evan Mobley (2021), Obi Toppin (2020) and Zion Williamson (2019) — were top-10 draft picks, with Jackson-Davis being the exception. The player ranked No. 1 this season, Reed Sheppard, might surprise some, making him worthy of a deeper look,” Givony wrote in his first NBA draft notebook of the 2023-24 cycle. “Kentucky has played only one top-100 opponent — Kansas in the Champions Classic, where Sheppard racked up 13 points and four steals in 16 minutes during a loss — with the Wildcats’ best win coming at home in overtime against Saint Joseph’s (ranked 108 per Ken Pom).

“Even against lower-level competition (and in limited minutes versus Kansas), it’s easy to see how good Sheppard is and why he has been arguably Kentucky’s most productive player, averaging 18.2 points, 6.1 rebounds, 5.9 assists, 5.3 steals and 1.7 blocks per 40 minutes while shooting 67% from both inside and outside the arc.”

An all-around talent with a pro ceiling

So what does the McDonald’s All-American do well in the eye of a draft analyst like Givony?

“Sheppard uses and rejects ball screens effectively to get into the paint off crossovers and hesitation moves, reading the floor with poise and patience and making the game easy for teammates by whipping the ball all over the court with outlet passes, finding cutters and rollers over the top, and with skip passes for open 3s,” he wrote. “He also is an outstanding shooter with deep range with his feet set and pulling up off the dribble, showing no hesitation getting into his jumper with a quick release and impressive confidence.

“Defensively, he generates turnovers instinctually with timely digs, traps and post-doubles, shooting the gap for steals, intercepting entry passes, flying around off the ball, and wreaking havoc with smart rotations to protect the rim. He’s got quick hands, and an even quicker mind, helping him compensate for his lack of physical tools, which show up at times with the way bigger players can shoot over the top of his limited length or overpower him one-on-one.”

One-and-done or two-and-through?

Sheppard isn’t going to blow teams away with his size (6-2 in shoes with a 6-3 wingspan) and questions remain regarding his game. How does he transition to point guard full-time? Does he have the handle and quickness to blow by elite defenders at the next level? Will his defense hold up beyond steals and blocks?

Fortunately for the Kentucky freshman, those aren’t going to sway things one way or another quite yet. We’ll find those answers later. If he can, he’s probably a one-and-done — or a guy you can comfortably hand the keys to next season as a clear sophomore star.

“These are questions we don’t have the answer for after six games, but we will know a lot more about as we get into SEC play,” Givony said. “It’s unlikely Sheppard went into the season planning on being one-and-done, and there’s a strong argument to be made that coming back and having the keys to Kentucky’s offense next season (when D.J. Wagner and Rob Dillingham likely move on to the NBA) could be highly beneficial for his long-term development. We’ll have to see how the campaign plays out.”

One thing is clear thus far: Reed Sheppard appears to be an NBA-level talent. Enjoy him while you can, BBN.

Reed Sheppard had an incredibly productive month of November, in no small part due to his phenomenonal defensive instincts, which helped him generate 5.3 steals and 1.7 blocks per-40 minutes. pic.twitter.com/bZrRqWRVAw

— Jonathan Givony (@DraftExpress) November 28, 2023