Robert Dillingham trending toward NC State before college announcement

Immediately following Robert Dillingham’s official visit to Lexington back on October 24, Kentucky emerged as the clear and overwhelming favorite to land the five-star junior. Whispers of a silent commitment to John Calipari and the UK coaching staff spread like wildfire, and the rumors were never shot down by any of the involved parties.

It was a consensus in recruiting circles that Dillingham would commit to Kentucky, with an announcement expected sooner rather than later. There was even talk of a potential reclassification to 2022, a move that would keep him at Kentucky for two seasons due to draft eligibility. We were well past the point of choosing a destination, it was now about laying out a plan to get there.

The secret was out, with details of how and when being the only sticking points left to iron out. There was brief LSU buzz last week, but it was dismissed rather quickly — and maybe unfairly, looking back at it now. Both publicly and privately, it was a foregone conclusion that Dillingham would commit to Kentucky.

And then it wasn’t.

At the time of Dillingham’s scheduled commitment announcement on Monday evening, there were five Crystal Ball picks and four FutureCast predictions for Dillingham on 247Sports and Rivals, respectively. Every pick favored the Wildcats.

Shortly after, though, 247Sports’ Travis Branham was the first reputable source to shift away from the ‘Cats, entering a pick in favor of NC State. Following his prediction, word of Dillingham likely picking the Wolfpack began to spread, and rightfully so. The latest talk is that the five-star guard is favoring NC State leading up to his commitment Wednesday afternoon, a complete 180-degree turn from the clear and consistent Kentucky buzz everyone has heard for the better part of the last month.

How did we get to this point? To put it simply, it’s been — and continues to be — a mess.

North Carolina was the early favorite in his recruitment, followed by Memphis emerging as the clear leader. His trip to Lexington shot Kentucky up Dillingham’s list of favorites, with the Wildcats seen as a lock ever since. Talk of LSU emerged ever-so-slightly last week, but NC State is the latest school to take over as the top choice. Recruiting with star teenagers is fluid, sure, but the back-and-forth with Dillingham has been in a league of its own. The same can be said about his highly-publicized transfer from Combine Academy (NC) to Kanye West’s Donda Academy (CA) this year.

Behind the scenes, the reasoning for Dillingham’s late change-up from Kentucky to NC State isn’t concrete. Different factors are being discussed, some related and some unrelated. All make sense, though, when it comes to connecting the dots.

For starters, there are whispers Dillingham wasn’t sure about his fit alongside prized guard target DJ Wagner, with NC State emerging as a “legit player” over the last two weeks as a result, one source told KSR. UK liked and wanted both pieces to pair with Reed Sheppard, but the idea of sharing the spotlight with the nation’s consensus No. 1 guard was one Dillingham’s camp struggled with.

Another line of thinking is that Kentucky pulled out of this recruitment due to the delays, outside noise, and potential eligibility concerns that could emerge down the road.

“UK wasn’t messing with him anymore,” a source told KSR Monday evening.

As a player, certainly. Dillingham is one of the top point guard prospects in the class for a reason. That’s why they offered and pushed so hard to land him. There’s just more to his situation — hectic recruitment, new school, added noise, etc. — that could lead a program to decide it’s not worth the hassle. That was among the narratives pushed within basketball circles, at least.

There’s also talk that Kentucky was led on from the start and his recruitment wasn’t as open-and-shut as the staff was told it was following his visit to Lexington. Considering at least four different schools have now been led to believe Dillingham was coming to their respective programs, it’s a valid concern — certainly not UK’s fault, in that case. If a kid tells you he’s joining your program, why think twice?

While sources confirm that NC State has emerged as the new favorite, KSR also learned late Monday evening that it’s no guarantee Dillingham ever sets foot on a college campus regardless. Whether that’s due to eligibility issues or potential professional options coming in late, concerns are there. A verbal pledge or even a signing is one thing, but it’s another to get a player enrolled and on campus. This would be an ongoing conversation well beyond signing day.

Could it be a combination of all of the above? Possibly. Maybe even likely. Dillingham — though talented as anyone in the class of 2023 — is known for changing his mind, and his shift from Kentucky to NC State is just the latest example.

With Dillingham (currently) trending toward the Wolfpack, Kentucky’s focus remains on DJ Wagner to join Reed Sheppard in the backcourt. UK is also going after five-star wings such as Mackenzie Mgbako, Mookie Cook, JJ Taylor, Justin Edwards and Elijah Fisher in the class of 2023. The backcourt will be fine either way.

Dillingham may not be headed to Lexington anymore — not as of this minute, anyway — but legitimate options remain for Kentucky in 2023.