Roll Tide! Big Blue Nation needs Alabama to beat Auburn tonight for the SEC race

Kentucky needs some help in the SEC standings. The program that traditionally controls its own destiny amongst its league peers already has to scoreboard watch in January after suffering a second in-conference loss Tuesday night, losing by 17 at South Carolina. The loss dropped John Calipari‘s career record against Lamont Paris to 0-2 as the Gamecocks won a third game against the Wildcats in the last five meetings. In the present, the disappointing outcome pushed Kentucky further down the SEC charts into a tie with South Carolina and the winner of tonight’s LSU/Georgia game.

Up top, Auburn has ahold of the regular season race with an unblemished record through five games. The first-place Tigers won all of those games by double digits and an average margin of 19.2 points, including a 32-point win at Arkansas. Auburn’s two-game lead on Kentucky is already a tough hill to climb for the Wildcats, especially when the two teams meet only once this season, and it is in Auburn, not in Lexington. Kentucky has to play second-place Tennessee twice, too, while Auburn only drew the Vols once on its 2024 SEC schedule and Alabama twice.

So, Kentucky’s pursuit of its first SEC championship since 2020 (and its second since 2017) faces formidable odds. KenPom’s advanced analytics predict another five conference losses to come, which would be a final record of 22-9 overall and 11-7 in the SEC. Those same analytics predict Auburn will finish the SEC at 14-4, Tennessee at 14-4 and Alabama at 13-5. Of course, those are only projections, not real basketball. The same system projected Kentucky wouldn’t lose last night.

[KenPom’s Projected Losses: vs. Tennessee, at Auburn, vs. Alabama, at Mississippi State, at Tennessee]

Looking ahead, Kentucky’s best shot at gaining immediate ground on Auburn is tonight, when Bruce Pearl’s first-place Tigers head to Coleman Coliseum in Tuscaloosa, where one-loss Alabama hosts the first of two rivalry games this year. Alabama was in a tie with Auburn through four SEC games until suffering a loss at Tennessee over the weekend. Tonight, Alabama aims to spoil Auburn’s perfect SEC record and move back into a share of the first-place seat. Big Blue Nation should be on Alabama’s side, at least for a night. Alabama is a 3.5-point favorite.

So, Roll Tide? Roll Tide. But only this one time to narrow the gap in the standings, and we don’t have to like Nate Oats.

SEC STANDINGS

	SEC RECORD	OVERALL RECORD
Auburn	5-0	16-2
Tennessee	4-1	14-4
Alabama	4-1	12-6
South Carolina	4-2	16-3
Kentucky	4-2	14-4
Georgia	3-2	13-5
LSU	3-2	11-7
Texas A&M	3-3	12-7
Ole Miss	2-3	15-3
Mississippi State	2-3	13-5
Florida	2-3	12-6
Arkansas	1-4	10-8
Missouri	0-6	8-11
Vanderbilt	0-5	5-13

WEDNESDAY’S SEC SCHEDULE

TIME	AWAY	HOME	TV
6:30 PM ET	LSU	Georgia	SEC Network
7:30 PM ET	(13) Auburn	Alabama	ESPN
8:30 PM ET	Mississippi St	Florida	SEC Network
9:00 PM ET	Arkansas	(22) Ole Miss	ESPNU

IMPORTANT SATURDAYS IN KENTUCKY’S SEC RACE

DATE	AWAY	HOME	TV
Sat. Feb 3	Tennessee	Kentucky	ESPN
Sat. Feb 17	Kentucky	Auburn	ESPN
Sat. Feb 24	Alabama	Kentucky	CBS
Sat. Mar 9	Kentucky	Tennessee	CBS

KENTUCKY IN THE SEC

	REGULAR SEASON	SEC TOURNAMENT
2023	3rd (12-6)	Friday Exit
2022	T-2nd (14-4)	Saturday Exit
2021	8th (8-9)	Thursday Exit
2020	1st (15-3)	—
2019	T-2nd (15-3)	Saturday Exit
2018	T-4th (10-8)	Champion
2017	1st (16-2)	Champion
2016	T-1st (13-5)	Champion
2015	1st (18-0)	Champion
2014	2nd (12-6)	Runner-Up
2013	T-2nd (12-6)	Friday Exit
2012	1st (16-0)	Runner-Up
2011	2nd in East (10-6)	Champion
2010	2nd in East (14-2)	Champion