Score predictions for first round of Kentucky high school football playoffs
Do you smell that? That’s the sweet, sweet scent of playoff football floating in the air…
Postseason action across Kentucky starts tonight and continues throughout Friday. There are only a handful of games on the docket for tonight with the rest of the state kicking off their playoff runs on Friday night. With this being the first of five rounds for all six classes, we’re going to see plenty of lopsided scores. For the first time all season, we have no Top 25 matchups on this week’s slate.
The only Top 25 school not in action this week is No. 5 Franklin County, which has already advanced to the Class 4A second round after Western elected to forfeit. As for the KSR Game of the Week, we’ll be headed to western Kentucky as No. 15 Bowling Green hosts Madisonville-North Hopkins on Friday night. KSR will have boots on the ground for multiple games this week and throughout the rest of the playoffs.
As we gear up for the first round of the postseason, we’re predicting the score for every major game on the docket for Friday. Using the Massey Ratings — a system created in 1999 by statistician Kenneth Massey that was used to help determine the Bowl Championship Series (BCS) until 2013 — we are able to plug every high school team across the state into a tool that will predict the final outcome of any given matchup.
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As a quick explanation, the Massey Ratings are computer ratings based on historical trends and current-year stats. With that in mind, it will need a few weeks’ worth of games before the numbers begin to hit their stride. However, you won’t find a more reliable system to use in terms of predicting scores throughout the first couple of weeks of the regular season.
For more information on the Massey Ratings and how it works, click here.
Below, we have included score predictions for all of KSR’s Top 25 teams, along with the additional teams receiving votes from our panel of voters. If your school was not included in the prediction sheet, click the link here to find their team page. There, you’ll be able to see predictive scores for this week and the rest of the season, along with updated scoreboard results.
Thursday, November 7
| TIME (LOCAL) | MATCHUP | MASSEY PREDICTION |
| 6:30 PM | Paul Laurence Dunbar @ No. 9 Frederick Douglass | 42-0 (Frederick Douglass) |
Friday, November 8
*RV indicates a team receiving votes in KSR’s Pre-Playoff Top 25 Rankings*
| TIME (LOCAL) | MATCHUP | MASSEY PREDICTION |
| 7:30 PM | Perry County Central @ No. 1 Boyle County | 48-6 (Boyle County) |
| 7:00 PM | Breckinridge County @ No. 2 Paducah Tilghman | 51-7 (Paducah Tilghman) |
| 7:30 PM | Campbell County @ No. 3 DuPont Manual | 42-7 (DuPont Manual) |
| 7:30 PM | Southern @ No. 4 Trinity | 48-0 (Trinity) |
| 7:30 PM | South Oldham @ No. 5 Cooper | 42-13 (Cooper) |
| 7:00 PM | Crittenden County @ No. 7 Owensboro Catholic | 47-7 (Owensboro Catholic) |
| 7:00 PM | Eastern @ No. 8 Male | 49-7 (Male) |
| 7:00 PM | Pleasure Ridge Park @ No. 10 Ryle | 42-6 (Ryle) |
| 7:00 PM | Apollo @ No. 11 South Warren | 48-13 (South Warren) |
| 7:30 PM | Harrison County @ No. 12 Ashland Blazer | 48-6 (Ashland Blazer) |
| 7:30 PM | Simon Kenton @ No. 13 St. Xavier | 48-14 (St. Xavier) |
| 7:00 PM | Green County @ No. 14 Lexington Christian Academy | 48-7 (Lexington Christian Academy) |
| 7:00 PM | Madisonville-North Hopkins @ No. 15 Bowling Green | 47-14 (Bowling Green) |
| 7:00 PM | Russell County @ No. 16 Corbin | 48-7 (Corbin) |
| 8:00 PM | Collins @ No. 17 Highlands | 45-7 (Highlands) |
| 7:00 PM | Casey County @ No. 18 Central | 44-0 (Central) |
| 7:00 PM | Boyd County @ No. 19 Covington Catholic | 42-6 (Covington Catholic) |
| 7:30 PM | Marion County @ No. 20 Christian Academy-Louisville | 48-6 (Christian Academy-Louisville) |
| 7:00 PM | Hopkins County Central @ No. 21 Hart County | 44-7 (Hart County) |
| 7:30 PM | Dixie Heights vs. No. 22 Woodford County (@ Falling Springs) | 42-21 (Woodford County) |
| 7:30 PM | Danville @ No. 23 Beechwood | 48-6 (Beechwood) |
| 7:30 PM | Grant County @ No. 24 Johnson Central | 48-7 (Johnson Central) |
| 6:30 PM | Henry Clay @ No. 25 Bryan Station | 42-0 (Bryan Station) |
| 7:00 PM | Ohio County @ (RV) Owensboro | 46-0 (Owensboro) |
| 7:00 PM | Fairview @ (RV) Sayre | 49-7 (Sayre) |
| 7:00 PM | Todd County Central @ (RV) Mayfield | 48-6 (Mayfield) |
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