Scouting Report: Alabama Crimson Tide

Saturday afternoon’s Top 25 matchup between the #13 Alabama Crimson Tide (19-7, 11-2) and the #17 Kentucky Wildcats (18-8, 8-5) will feature two teams coming in with varying trajectories. Alabama had to come from down 10 points with 8:40 to play to escape with an overtime victory against Florida on Wednesday. In contrasting fashion, Kentucky squandered a 15 point advantage second half advantage before losing at the buzzer to LSU on the same night. The Crimson Tide remain in the driver’s seat of the Southeastern Conference standings. Meanwhile, the Wildcats are currently looking at playing on Thursday in Nashville. A lot can change not just over the course of the final five games, but on Saturday alone. This 4:00 p.m. Eastern Time CBS tip-off will carry major implications for both programs.

Coach Nate Oats is no stranger to coaching elite offensive teams. Even dating back to his final two seasons at Buffalo, his teams have finished no worst than 37th in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency in the last six years. That streak will move to seven at the conclusion of this season as the Crimson Tide currently boast the best offense in college basketball. The style of play is unchanged. Alabama is going to play fast and let it fly from three-point range. However, after shooting just 30.9% and 33.5% from deep the last two seasons, this Alabama team is connecting on 38% of their attempts which is 14th best nationally. With Kentucky playing at a similar pace, and shooting an even higher percentage from three, it is fair to assume this could be a high scoring affair.

As always, we have prepared a full, in-depth scouting report for Kentucky’s next opponent. We will take a deep dive into the Crimson Tides’ personnel, break down their offensive and defensive schemes, and highlight the keys to the game for the ‘Cats. Let’s dive in and get to know more about the Alabama Crimson Tide.

Alabama Crimson Tide Personnel

Starters

#1 Mark Sears: 6’1″ 185 lbs, Senior Guard

20.4 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 4.1 apg

Left-handed. Primary ball handler. Excellent shooter!!! Has made 61 3’s in 26 games at a 43.9% clip. You have to be tight to him at all times to take away the 3’s. He will make them off of the bounce. Pick him up well beyond the arc. Get OVER the ballscreens and handoffs. CHASE off of downscreens and get OVER the flares. Don’t let him dribble into a 3. He is an excellent driver, but we would rather make him score 2’s. Loves to use the right to left crossover to attack. Very physical driver. You need to be ready to take on contact and be physical. Get your hands up and make him score over you. Do not over help when he drives. Tighten up to shooters and take away 3’s. Sprint back in transition. Be TIGHT and take him away from 3. No straight line, left-hand drives.

#55 Aaron Estrada: 6’3″ 190 lbs, Graduate Student Guard

13.1 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 4.3 apg

Left-handed. Very capable shooter, but better and more aggressive as a left-hand driver. 37-112 from 3 this season. You have to be tight enough to him to take away the obvious catch-and-shoot 3’s and give a hard contest to all jump shots, but we are just as worried about him driving it left. No left hand drives! We still want to go OVER the ballscreens and handoffs. CHASE him off of downscreens and get OVER the flares. He loves to shoot the floater as he drives it. Get your hands up to contest the floater. We want to make him score contested 2’s outside of the paint. Do not over help when he drives it. He is an even better playmaker than finisher. Tighten up to shooters and take away 3’s. Sprint back in transition. No uncontested catch-and-shoot 3’s. No straight line, left hand drives.

#3 Rylan Griffin: 6’6″ 190 lbs, Sophomore Guard

11.2 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 1.8 apg

SHOOTER!!! NO 3’s!!! 131 of 203 shots have been 3’s. Shooting 39.7% from 3. You have to be tight to him at all times to take away the catch-and-shoot 3’s. Tighten up to him as the ball is driven towards you. Absolutely no help off of him. Your only responsibility when guarding him is to take away his attempts. Get OVER the ballscreens and handoffs. CHASE off of downscreens and get OVER the flares. Be willing to switch anytime there is too much space, but you have to switch out aggressively to take him away from 3. He is the next most dangerous guy when matching up in transition. Pick him up deep beyond the arc. Sprint back. Once you take away the initial catch-and-shoot 3’s, he will look to drive it right. We want to make him score 2’s. Absolutely no 3’s for him!

#15 Jarin Stevenson: 6’11” 210 lbs, Freshman Forward

5.3 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 0.5 apg

Face-up 4-man. Starting in the place of #12 Wrightsell Jr. Very willing shooter. 71 of 110 shots have been 3’s. However, he is shooting “just” 31% from 3. You need to be there to give a hard contest to the obvious catch-and-shoot 3’s, but he is a guy you can help off of some. You need to recover with urgency though and closeout with high hands and choppy feet. If you are there on your closeout you can get up and pressure him some. We want to make him bounce it. 12 assists, 30 turnovers. Make him uncomfortable and see if you can take it off of him. Right hand, left shoulder in the post. Be physical and get him off of the block. Stay down, wall up, and make him score over you. Doesn’t really want the game to be physical. No uncontested catch-and-shoot 3’s.

#2 Grant Nelson: 6’11” 230 lbs, Senior Forward

12.3 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 1.7 apg

Athletic, skilled 5-man. Willing shooter, but making under one per game at 27.3%. Be there to contest the obvious catch-and-shoot 3’s, but he is someone you can help off of aggressively. Stuff the gaps, make a driver give it up, do not run at him on the perimeter. He is looking to attack closeouts. Stay down on shot fakes. Closeout short with high hands and choppy feet. NO RIGHT HAND DRIVES!!! If he drives it left he is just setting you up to spin back right. Loves the spin move at the end of his drives. If you time it up, come steal it on the spin. Right hand, left shoulder in the post. Be physical and get him off of the block. Prefers to play on the perimeter or face-up and drive it right. Stay down, wall up, and make him score over you. No right hand drives!

Bench

#12 Latrell Wrightsell Jr.: 6’3″ 190 lbs, Senior Guard

9.0 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 1.5 apg

***Missed Florida game due to head injury, status uncertain.*** SHOOTER!!! NO 3’s!!! 128 of 165 shots have been 3’s. Shooting a better percentage from 3, 44.5%, than he is from 2. You have to be tight to him at all times to take away the catch-and-shoot 3’s. Tighten up to him as the ball is driven towards you. Absolutely no help off of him. Your only responsibility when guarding him is to take away his attempts. Get OVER the ballscreens and handoffs. CHASE off of downscreens and get OVER the flares. Be willing to switch anytime there is too much space, but you have to switch out aggressively to take him away from 3. Pick him up deep beyond the arc. Sprint back. Once you take away the initial catch-and-shoot 3’s, he will look to drive it right. We want to make him score 2’s. Absolutely no 3’s for him!

#24 Sam Walters: 6’10” 198 lbs, Freshman Forward

6.2 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 0.5 apg

Left-handed. Backup face-up 4-man. SHOOTER!!! NO 3’s!!! 73 of 107 shots have been 3’s. Shooting 45.2% from 3. You have to be tight to him at all times to take away the catch-and-shoot 3’s. Tighten up to him as the ball is driven towards you. Absolutely no help off of him. Your only responsibility when guarding him is to take away his attempts. SWITCH anytime he ballscreens to take away the pick-and-pop 3’s. CHASE off of downscreens and get OVER the flares. When you switch onto him you have to do so aggressively and immediately close the space. We cannot give up any pick-and-pop 3’s. They primarily use him to space the floor in the corner. You have to be disciplined enough to not help off of him. Tighten up as it comes towards you. Absolutely no 3’s for him!!!

#23 Nick Pringle: 6’10” 230 lbs, Senior Center

5.8 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 0.4 apg

Backup 5-man. Very physical and athletic. He will look to ballscreen and roll the basket. They like to throw it up to him on the roll. It can be hard to tag on his roll off of their shooters, so you need to be aggressive enough at the point of the screen to force the ball handler away from the basket. Hopefully that will make the pass hard enough that he can’t get a clean dunk at the rim. Right hand, left shoulder in the post. Be physical and get him off of the block. His percentages will go down the further off of the block you make him catch it. Stay down, wall up, and make him score over you. Don’t help up off of him and give up a dunk. 9 assists, 20 turnovers. You can take it off of him. Excellent offensive rebounder. No dunks for him!

#10 Mouhamed Dioubate: 6’7″ 215 lbs, Freshman Forward

2.8 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 0.5 apg

Left-handed. Backup wing/forward. Not worried about him as a shooting threat. 1-9 from 3 this season. Just throw a hand up to contest the obvious catch-and-shoot 3’s, but we are closing out short to him and helping off of him aggressively. Stay between him and the basket at all times. NO LEFT HAND DRIVES!!! There is no reason to closeout to him on the perimeter in a way that allows him to drive it left. Help off of him aggressively to clog up the lane, stuff the gap, and contain penetration. Then, closeout short with high hands and choppy feet to guard against the left hand drives. He will crash the offensive glass hard from the perimeter when a shot goes up. You have to go find him and make contact. Don’t turn and watch. No left hand drives!!!

Alabama Crimson Tide Offense

It is no secret what the Alabama Crimson Tide want to do offensively. They are going to push the tempo as fast as possible and take the first open look from three-point range. “Open” is the key word there and it was specifically chosen instead of “good.” Coach Nate Oats gives everyone that steps on the floor the green light. This season, the vast majority of Alabama’s rotation players are very dangerous shooters. However, there are still a few you can help off of. That is why the personnel scouting report, and mentally preparing for the style of play, is far more important than anything else in this game. The Crimson Tide aren’t going to run very much set offense in the half court. It is all about spreading you out and making you guard the entire floor. Let’s take a look at the film.

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First and foremost, you have to keep the Alabama Crimson Tide out of transition. The easiest way to do that is by scoring the basketball. However, even when you do, they are going to bring it at you fast. Protect the basket, stop the ball, matchup beginning with the next most dangerous guy. As always, that is the mantra for transition defense. Before any of that though you have to SPRINT back. Look at how Florida is back pedaling and jogging in this clip. At that point the Crimson Tide already have you beat. You have to SPRINT back and protect the basket and then corral the ball. Having the ability to throw the ball ahead to your 5-man like this makes you extremely dangerous in transition. #2 Nelson is not your ordinary 5-man.

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When you are sprinting back in transition you will need to quickly process where the shooters are and work to close the space. Communication will be at a premium. In this clip, as soon as #55 Estrada is stopped on the wing, all of that space between the defender and #1 Sears needed to be closed. You can’t allow yourself to drift inside of the arc and get underneath the screen. Pick him up all of the way out there beyond the arc and work to take away the transition 3-point attempts.

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This gives you a quick idea of how much pressure the Alabama offense puts on you early in the shot clock. At the 26 second mark they’ve not only already gotten the ball into the scoring area, but made a second pass and drive. When #1 Sears gets downhill you have to be disciplined enough to not help off of their shooters. You can contest at the rim some off of #23 Pringle and then crack down off of #2 Nelson, but you absolutely cannot help off of #24 Walters in the corner. He will shoot it in all night long if you help off of him. When you are guarding him you have no other responsibilities aside from taking him away from 3.

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Understand and executing the personnel scouting report will be the difference between winning and losing on Saturday night. The Alabama Crimson Tide have plenty of guys that we want to run off of the line and make them score 2’s. However, #2 Nelson is not one of them. We have to take advantage of the fact that some of their low percentage shooters are still such willing shooters. Nelson wants you to closeout aggressively so he can go dunk it. You need to closeout short and guard against the right hand drive. There is no reason to run at a 27% 3-point shooter in the manner you see in this clip.

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Florida did a pretty good job of providing enough ball pressure on Alabama’s guard that it was hard for them to easily turn the corner on the ballscreens. However, when they would play drop coverage with their 5-man it led to a handful of lobs at the rim. We are going to have to live with a few of these because there is nowhere to help from and we don’t want to give up 3’s. This clip just shows the importance of ball pressure in this game and what will happen when #1 Sears or #55 Estrada are able to operate cleanly off of the ballscreen. #23 Pringle is an above-the-rim finisher on the roll.

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Making smart personnel-specific decisions is the key to containing the Alabama Crimson Tide. They are too good offensively to actually take them away, but you have to play the percentages. Would you rather them try and squeeze a pass to #15 Stevenson on the roll or give up a wide open 3 to #24 Walters? You cannot tag on the roll off of Walters!!! If Stevenson dunks it on the roll that isn’t your problem if you are guarding Walters. Take away the 3’s from guys like him at all costs!

Alabama Crimson Tide Defense

Kentucky fans know what it feels like to have an elite offense, but a less than stellar defense. The Alabama Crimson Tide fall into that category as they currently rank 71st in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency. For context, the ‘Cats are 77th. They are exclusively a man-to-man team that will look to be aggressive some on the perimeter. Alabama hard hedges a lot of the ballscreens and will generally switch the ones they don’t. Also, they will get out in the passing lanes some and then help aggressively with two hands and two feet. However, their defensive style has led to more fouls, straight line drives, and open catch-and-shoot 3’s than it has forced turnovers. We need to be aggressive and confident offensively. Go score 90.

Keys to the Game

• KYP = Know Your Personnel. Play the percentages. Let the bad shooters shoot and take away 3’s from the good shooters. No 3’s for #1 Sears, #3 Griffen, #12 Wrightsell Jr., and #24 Walters. Absolutely no help off of those guys. Hold those four guys to six or fewer combined 3’s.
• REBOUND!!! Long shots equate to long rebounds. The Alabama Crimson Tide are 21st nationally with an offensive rebounding percentage of 35.9%. Those second chance opportunities allow for kick-out 3’s and clean shots at the rim. When you get them to miss you have to corral the rebound. Guards have to help with the rebounding effort from the perimeter. Can’t turn and watch. Go FIND and HIT your man. 75% or better on the defensive glass. Also should be 30% or better on the offensive glass against them.
• Take care of the ball. Alabama does not force many turnovers, so we can’t give them free possessions with unforced errors. We will have a very good chance of scoring when we get a shot up against these guys. However, if we turn it over, it makes their offense even more potent. Keep our turnover percentage below 13%.
• Shoot 75% or better from the free throw line.