Scouting Report: Duke Blue Devils

The Duke Blue Devils are coming off of a 13-11 season, 9-9 in the ACC. After missing the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 1995, legendary head coach Mike Krzyzewski announced he would retire at the end of this season. Quickly, former Duke player and current associate head coach Jon Scheyer was named as his successor. There is no mistaking Coach K’s impact on college basketball and his farewell tour will certainly be one to follow. However, we are here to beat the Blue Devils.

Duke lost their three leading scorers from a year ago but return three regular starters as well. Additionally, there are three impact freshman and a graduate transfer that will make immediate impacts in Durham. Freshman sensation Paolo Banchero was selected as the preseason ACC Player of the Year before every putting on the Blue Devils jersey.

So far, all we have film wise on Duke is some footage from Countdown to Craziness and their 106-38 exhibition beatdown of Winston-Salem State. It is hard to draw too many conclusions from any of that tape. However, there is clearly a lot of talent on this team. When the ball goes up at Madison Square Garden these two blue bloods will be in for a battle.

Duke Blue Devils Personnel

Starters

#3 Jeremy Roach: 6’1″ 172 lbs, Sophomore Point Guard

8.7 ppg, 2.2 rpg, 2.8 apg

Point Guard. Will be the primary ball handler when he is in there. Play him as straight up as possible. Good shooter, but not great. Want to make him make one before really tightening up. Closeout to contest the shot and then bounce back to guard the right hand drive. No right hand drives! Still go over ballscreens and handoffs to start. Wants to use the left-to-right crossover to get penetration. Looking to pass the deeper he drives it. Do not over help when he drives. Stay between him and the basket. No layups.

#1 Trevor Keels: 6’4″ 221 lbs, Freshman Guard

28.7 ppg, 9.1 rpg, 7.2 apg (H.S. stats)

Big, physical guard. SHOOTER!!! NO 3’s!!! Need to be tight to him at all times to take away the 3-point attempts. Very quick release. Get over the ballscreens and handoffs. Switch anytime there is space to take away the 3-point attempts. Chase him off of downscreens and handoffs. Tighten up as the ball is driven towards you. Wants to drive it at you going right when you take away the 3’s. Very physical. Don’t let him reject ballscreens. Likes to drive along the baseline. Make him finish contested 2’s. No help off of him.

#0 Wendell Moore Jr.: 6’5″ 213 lbs, Junior Guard/Forward

9.7 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 2.7 apg

Big, physical wing. Need to play him straight up. More of a jump shooter than a pure shooter. Closeout to take away the initial catch-and-shoot and then bounce back to guard the right hand drive. No right hand drives. Still going over the ballscreens and handoffs. Chase off downscreens and flares. Likes to shoot the pull-up jumper going to his left or after a crossover dribble. Give a hard contest to all jump shots. Will bring it in transition when he rebounds. Get back and get the ball stopped. Crashes the offensive glass. BOX OUT!

#5 Paolo Banchero: 6’10” 250 lbs, Freshman Forward

22.6 ppg, 11.0 rpg, 3.7 apg (H.S. stats)

All-around player. Need to make everything as hard on him as possible. Get out and deny him from getting a catch when you can. Really make him work to get the ball. Will pick-and-pop to catch the ball in space. NO RIGHT HAND DRIVES! Really wants to bring it at you going right. Likes to come back to his right hand to finish. Make him take contested 2’s. Stay between him and the basket. Contest everything. No catch-and-shoot 3’s. Closeout hard and then bounce back to guard the right hand drive. Very, very physical. Likes to slip ballscreens. Must make first contact when shot goes up. Excellent offensive rebounder. Stunt and fake at him when he has the ball. Bring help when he drives it. Make him give it up.

#15 Mark Williams: 7’0″ 242 lbs, Sophomore Center

7.1 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 0.7 apg

True 5-man. Wants to play inside on the block. Ballscreens and rolls to the rim. Wants to finish with his right hand over his left shoulder in the post. Be physical on his left shoulder. Don’t let him ride you up the lane line to setup the pass over top. Loves to get it on the high-low. Make him score with you between him and the basket. Looking to duck you in around the basket. No deep post catches. Really tries to block everything defensively. Must play off of two feet and use a shot fake against him. Elite offensive rebounder. BOX OUT!!!

Bench

#2 Jaylen Blakes: 6’1″ 208 lbs, Freshman Point Guard

18.2 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 3.5 apg (H.S. stats)

Backup point guard. Likes to push the pace with the ball in his hands. Will play faster in transition than #3 Roach. Very athletic. Get the ball stopped when he is bringing it in transition. No right hand drives! You need to closeout to contest the catch-and-shoot, but then bounce back and guard against the right hand drive. Still going over the ballscreens and handoffs. Be aware of him basket cutting when he feeds the post. Don’t get face cut. No layups for him.

#12 Theo Johns: 6’9″ 242, Graduate Student Forward/Center

8.2 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 1.3 apg (Marquette)

Big, physical backup post player. Rolls hard to the basket after ball screening. Looking for deep post catches. Always trying to duck you in for a catch in the paint. You must be physical and get him off of the block. Right hand, left shoulder in the post. Be physical on that left shoulder. Make him score over you. Very good offensive rebounder. Box out!

#13 Joey Baker: 6’6″ 206 lbs, Senior Forward

2.9 ppg, 1.2 rpg, 0.4 apg

SHOOTER!!! NO 3’s! He wants catch-and-shoot 3’s. Closeout out to him to take away the 3-point attempts. Chase him off of downscreens and flares. Be ready to switch if he ballscreens to take away the 3’s. Do not help off of him. Tight at all times to take away the 3’s. If he isn’t dribbling you aren’t close enough. Tighten up as the ball is driven towards you.

#21 AJ Griffin: 6’6″ 222 lbs, Freshman Forward

17.3 ppg, 8.8 rpg, 2.4 apg (H.S. stats)

Elite athlete with all the physical tools. Bigger wing. Right hand driver! NO RIGHT HAND DRIVES! Better as a driver than a shooter. Closeout short to him to take away the right hand drives. If he makes a couple we will adjust but begin by closing out short. Loves to attack closeouts. You can help off of him when he doesn’t have it but then closeout short. Excellent defender that tries to get into the passing lanes. Crashes the offensive glass. Box out.

#34 Bates Jones: 6’8″ 222 lbs, Graduate Student Forward

2.6 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 0.8 apg (Davidson)

Pick-and-pop 4-man. SHOOTER! NO 3’S! Need to be ready to switch if he ballscreens to take away the 3’s. You must closeout to take away the 3-point attempts. If he isn’t dribbling you aren’t close enough. Do not help off of him. Tighten up as the ball is driven towards you.

Duke Blue Devils Offense

This Duke Blue Devils team is going to be very versatile on the offensive end. They have the shooting on the wings to be better from three-point range than they were last year. Around the basket, the Blue Devils have arguably one of the best front courts in the country. However, point guard play is a bit of a question.

Sophomore Jeremy Roach was an efficient scorer from two-point range, but was average at best from beyond the arc. Also, Roach must increase his assist rate while limiting the turnovers. Off the bench, freshman Jaylen Blakes is a four-star recruit that will push the pace. Both still have to prove themselves as lead guards for a top 10 team.

Expect to see a lot of ballscreen continuity this season from the Blue Devils. The goal is to get their guards in space to create shots on the perimeter and opportunities for Paolo Banchero to operate. This will be a good transition team. Also, Coach K and company have several set plays up their sleeve that are hard to guard.

Ballscreen Continuity

To the extent that the Duke Blue Devils have a base offense, this will likely be it. They like to set the initial wing ballscreen on the empty side to allow an opportunity to reject and drive baseline. When they come off, the ball gets moved ahead to the opposite forward who is high around the top of the key. The wing back cuts and they are into a ballscreen or handoff for the guard coming out of the corner. This can flow right into the other side of the floor at this point.

Horns: High-Low

A couple of the Blue Devils favorite actions come from the Horns alignment. With the forwards on the elbows and guards in the corners, the point guard enters the ball with a little ballscreen to the right. In the clip, Paolo Banchero flashes up to the high post where he is immediately looking for his teammate Mark Williams rolling to the basket. Williams is huge with long arms making him a perfect high-low threat. Banchero is obviously skilled enough to make this pass as well. Be ready for the high-low when they go Horns.

Horns: Staggered Ballscreen

Another look out of Horns is this staggered ballscreen action. This time they handoff to the wing to set up the play. They could also just wave that guy through and dribble into it depending on who Coach K wants coming off of the ballscreens. #0 Moore Jr. gets the call on this play. Once again, see #5 Banchero popping into space beyond the arc.

Slip to Ballscreen & Roll

This is a similar action to the staggered ballscreen above just with an added twist. The Blue Devils screen into it on the elbows as #5 Banchero comes over to slip the first screen. Then, #12 Johns comes behind him to set the second screen. Duke’s big men do an excellent job of rolling to rim and always posting hard to try and get the ball. You cannot stand up straight around the rim or you will get buried underneath the basket. It takes a second to develop, but Johns ends up with a deep post catch and an easy two points.

Baseline Runner

Here is a look at one more action we will see from the Duke Blue Devils. This was after a made basket but they get into the play from a secondary alignment. The ball is entered with a handoff on the wing and is brought back towards the top of the key as a downscreen happens opposite. As you can see in the clip, the ball is moved ahead and #1 Keels, who initially handed the ball off is set up to come off of a staggered double along the baseline. Keels is really hard to guard off of this action because you have to chase due to his shooting ability, but his size makes him really good on the curl. He attracts help on the curl and is able to throw it back to #34 Jones popping to the corner for a 3. Just really good offense right here.

Duke Blue Devils Defense

We are going to face man-to-man defense in this one. The Blue Devils really stare at the ball and will help with two hands and two feet as it gets driven. What that means is there will be open drive-and-kick opportunities for three-pointers throughout the night. They are going to come aggressively to make the ball handler give it up.

They will switch a lot of screening action with like defenders. Out on the perimeter they will switch quite a bit as well. However, with their 5-man, they have primarily showed drop/shadow ballscreen coverage on film.

Duke showed just a few possessions of a 1-2-1-1 diamond press in their exhibition game against Winston-Salem State. If they want to turn up the pressure to the full court that is the look they will give.

Keys to the Game

• No 3’s for #1 Keels, #13 Baker, or #34 Jones. Aggressive closeouts against these guys. Chase them. Go over screening/handoff action. No help off of them.
• Allow 12 or fewer offensive rebounds. This is a very big, physical team. They will have the advantage inside, but we cannot get dominated on the glass.
• Nothing easy for #5 Banchero. Contest everything. No right hand drives. No catch-and-shoot 3’s. Keep him off of the glass. Stay between him and the basket. More shots than points and 6 or fewer free throw attempts.
• Attempt 30+ 3-pointers. The Blue Devils defense will allow open catch-and-shoot 3-point attempts. Drive-and-kick and be ready to shoot when it comes to you. Knock them in!