Scouting Report: Iowa Hawkeyes

Bowl season is off and running. Down in Orlando, Iowa and Kentucky are getting set to lock horns at the Citrus Bowl.

In a battle of top 25 teams, the Hawkeyes and Wildcats are not all that different. Both squads want to play a physical brand of football, take snaps from under center, and hang their hats defensively on big-play prevention.

Let KSR lead you on a deep dive as Kirk Ferentz is bringing his 23rd Iowa team to the New Year’s Day game.

Nuts and Bolts

No head coach in college football has been in one place longer than Kirk Ferentz.

An Iowa assistant coach under Hayden Fry from 1981-89, Ferentz moved on to be the head coach at Maine before a six-year stint coaching offensive line in the NFL. After the 1998 season, Ferentz returned to Iowa City.

The 66-year-old Michigan native has been there ever since.

Ferentz brought home Big Ten titles in 2002 and 2004 and recorded an undefeated regular season in 2015 as the Hawkeyes landed in the Rose Bowl. Overall, Iowa is 178-109 (110-79) under Ferentz with seven double-digit win seasons. The veteran has found another groove recently.

Following an 11-2 season in 2009, the Hawks hit some bumps in the road over the next five years going 34-30 with a losing season in 2012. However, Iowa has turned it around beginning with that special run in 2015.

Since the beginning of that season, Iowa is 63-24 with a pair of top-15 finishes. The Hawkeyes are on the verge of finishing ranked for the fourth season in a row for the first time during Ferentz’s tenure. Iowa is currently a top 15-20 program in college football right now.

On Saturday, Iowa and Kentucky will meet on the gridiron for the first time. The Hawkeyes will be making their second appearance in Orlando for this postseason game. In the 2004 season, No. 11 Iowa knocked off No. 12 LSU with a furious comeback.

Meanwhile, Kentucky will also be making its second appearance in Orlando. To end the 2018 season, No. 14 Kentucky upset No. 12 Penn State in the Citrus Bowl.

Out in the desert, Kentucky is a three-point favorite with a total of 44. That’s a projected final score of 23.5-20.5. The Wildcats are 5-2 against the spread (ATS) as a favorite this season, and the Hawks are 2-2 ATS as an underdog with a pair of road upset wins against Iowa State and Nebraska. The over has hit in four straight Iowa games and is 4-1 in the last five games for Kentucky.

Iowa offense

Back in 2016, Brian Ferentz joined his dad’s staff at Iowa after a three-year stint with the New England Patriots. After spending five years coaching the offensive line, Ferentz got promoted to the offensive coordinator position in 2017 at the age of 34.

Ferentz has shifted over to coach tight ends in 2021. After a rocky start to his play-calling tenure, the bottom has fallen out for the younger Ferentz this season.

After 13 games, Iowa’s offense is No. 100 in SP+, No. 119 in success rate, and No. 109 in points per drive. The Hawkeyes have major issues both running and throwing the football. Ferentz’s unit will be the worst Power Five offense Kentucky has seen this season outside of Vanderbilt.

Schematically, Iowa is a pro-style offense that uses a tight end and fullback. The Hawkeyes utilize an outside zone structure and will give Kentucky a ton of two-back running game looks. Off the zone, play-action is a huge part of the offense, and the Hawkeyes will use it to try and create explosive plays.

However, this has been an inefficient unit overall that has scored two offensive touchdowns or less in nine games against 11 Power Five opponents this season. The Hawks win despite their offense.

Iowa wants to establish the run and ride the hot hand at tailback. Tyler Goodson was that guy for the Hawkeyes as the junior from Metro Atlanta rushed for 1,151 yards on 19.7 rushes per game. Goodson was also a valuable receiver who Iowa targeted 3.4 times per outing in the throw game. In all, Iowa looked to force-feed their workhorse tailback. The former high three-star recruit will be unavailable for the Citrus Bowl.

Thank you Hawkeye Nation!!🖤💛 pic.twitter.com/R39eZz8Uzb

— Tyler Goodson(Tgood) (@tgood1110) December 10, 2021

To replace him, Ivory Kelly-Martin (No. 21) and Gavin Williams (No. 25) will get the snaps. Expect Iowa to still try to pound the rock. Williams appears to be the future as a redshirt freshman. The 211-pound back recorded 56 yards on 12 attempts against Michigan. However, Williams’ 30.6 percent success rate was lower than Goodson’s (34.4%).

Overall, Iowa recorded over 200 yards rushing just one time this season and averaged under five yards per rush in 11 games. The rushing attack is woefully inefficient.

At quarterback, redshirt junior Spencer Petras (No. 7) returned in 2021 after starting in 2020. At 6-foot-5 and 233 pounds, the California native is a pocket passer with a big arm. However, there are significant mobility and accuracy concerns for the former four-star recruit.

Those showed up this season.

Petras is completing just 56.7 percent of his passes and has an ugly 37.2 percent passing success rate. The Hawkeyes are No. 102 in completions of 20-plus yards (31), and Petras has a bad 8.51 percent sack rate. Oh, there has also been the injury bug.

The starting quarterback was injured on Halloween weekend game against Wisconsin and was pulled the next week for redshirt sophomore Alex Padilla (No. 8). The low three-star recruit led the Hawks to wins over Northwestern, Minnesota, and Illinois. However, the Greenwood Village (Colo.) Cherry Creek product posted just a 33.9 percent passing success rate while completing less than 50 percent of his passes.

Iowa has major passing game issues, and the quarterback position is a big reason why. However, the Hawks have not had much help on the outside.

After losing a pair of seniors in 2020, Iowa was going to be leaning heavily on veterans Charlie Jones (No. 16), Nico Ragaini (No. 89), and Tyrone Tracy to replace the production. However, the returnees have not produced, and Tracy entered the transfer portal after the Big Ten Championship. That has forced Iowa to go young.

Both Arland Bruce IV (No. 10) and Keagan Johnson (No. 6) were four-star signees in the class of 2021 for Iowa. Each has played over 200 snaps as rookies this season. Johnson is now a starter at X receiver and has flashed some solid playmaking ability while averaging just under 20 yards per grab.

The duo has combined for 39 receptions but has needed 80 targets to get there. Johnson is a big-play weapon, but the young receiver is woefully inefficient (30.8% success rate). However, Iowa does have a true No. 1 at tight end.

Sam LaPorta (No. 84) leads the team in targets (77), receptions (36), and explosive catches (16). The junior out of Highland (Ill.) High has played over 700 snaps this season and will be force-fed the ball by the Hawkeyes in the passing game.

The best player in the Citrus Bowl could be on Iowa’s offensive line. Tyler Linderbaum (No. 65) just won the Rimington Trophy and sets the tone for Iowa’s offense.

At guard, true freshman Connor Colby (No. 77) and former walk-on Kyler Schott (No. 64) have both been quality contributors. However, Iowa has had issues at tackle, and if there are protection breakdowns it will come on the outside.

When scoring opportunities arrive, the Hawkeyes have not been great. Ferentz’s offense is scoring just 3.31 points per scoring opportunity as finishing drives have often been a weakness of the offense.

Overall, Iowa has major offensive issues and will be without one of their best players in the Citrus Bowl. That is not a good combination.

Iowa defense

The Hawkeyes have issues on offense, but the same can’t be said for defensive coordinator for Phil Parker and his unit. Iowa has a top-10 defense for the third season in a row.

Parker utilizes a four-down structure with a ton of two-high safety looks. Iowa is a quarters coverage defense (four deep zones) that will not play much true man coverage with very low blitz rates. The Hawkeyes want to keep everything in front and force offenses to dink-and-dunk their way down the field.

However, with the two-deep looks, Iowa is often at a numbers disadvantage in the running game. For this to succeed, the front has to disengage from blocks and the linebackers must be tackling machines. The Hawkeyes check both of those boxes.

At defensive tackle, Logan Lee (No. 85) and Noah Shannon (No. 99) have combined for 85 tackles. At defensive end, Zach VanValkenburg (No. 97) is a Division II transfer and super senior with 50 tackles and a team-high nine non-sack tackles for loss. Joe Evans (No. 13) comes off the bench at defensive end, but is Iowa’s best pass rusher with 12 total sacks/QB hurries. Not bad for a former walk-on.

As a junior, Jack Campbell (No. 31) might be the most productive off-ball linebacker in college football. The former mid three-star recruit looks the part at 6-foot-5 and 243 pounds but also produces. The Cedar Falls (Iowa) High product has recorded 129 tackles with 2.5 non-sack tackles for loss, eight interceptions/pass breakups, and seven sacks/QB hurries this season. The veteran has played nearly 900 snaps and makes plays all over the place.

At Will, Seth Benson (No. 44) plays next to Campbell at doesn’t leave the field. The redshirt junior has 95 tackles with nine sacks/QB hurries. The Hawks have a front that is active and productive.

At the Sam linebacker position, Parker likes to have some versatility. Jestin Jacobs (No. 5) is a more traditional outside linebacker at 6-foot-4, 236 pounds with 49 tackles. Dane Belton (No. 4) is the most versatile piece on the defense as the junior will play both deep safety, nickel, and some off-ball linebacker. With 869 snaps, the Florida native trails just Campbell in total plays. With five interceptions and five pass breakups, the hybrid player is very active.

The strength of the Iowa defense happens to be at cornerback. Starter Matt Hankins is out injured, but running mate Riley Moss (No. 33) is elite.

A former low three-star recruit out of Ankeny (Iowa) Centennial has turned into one of the best cornerbacks in college football. The senior has already accepted an invitation to the Senior Bowl. Moss has excellent ball traits with good closing speed. With four interceptions and five pass breakups, he’s one of the best cornerbacks that Kentucky has seen all season.

Replacing Hankins will be redshirt sophomore Jemari Harris (No. 27) who has plenty of ball production (3 interceptions) in 390 snaps. At free safety, Jack Koerner (No. 28) is another former walk-on that starts. The Iowa native is third on the team in tackles (83).

As a unit, Iowa does not produce a ton of negative plays, but the Hawkeyes constantly play ahead of the chains while not giving up explosive gains. That is very hard to do. Parker’s unit is technically elite and knows their scheme inside and out with a bunch of veterans.

When the ball is put in the air, more bad tends to happen than good for opposing offenses. Iowa leads the FBS in interceptions (24) and has six players with multiple picks.

Iowa forces offenses to stay patient while usually winning without numbers in the box. Parker has done a tremendous job with this unit. The Hawkeyes will be the best defense not named Georgia that Kentucky has faced this season.

Iowa special teams

The defense in Iowa City has turned into a juggernaut in recent seasons, but Ferentz’s club has always been known for the third phase. Once again, the Hawkeyes have a lethal kicking game.

Sophomore Tory Taylor serves as the punter for the Hawks, and no one in the Power Five has been used more. The 6-foot-4 Australian has attempted 69 punts this season and has been dynamite. Taylor averages just under 46 yards per attempt with 21 punts over 50-plus yards and 33 punts downed inside the 20. Taylor is a field position weapon that Iowa is not afraid to use.

At placekicker, Caleb Shudak returned for his super senior season in 2021 as the Council Bluffs (Iowa) Lewis Central product finally got a chance to start. The veteran has not disappointed.

Shudak is 22 of 25 on the season with 11 of 13 makes from 40-plus. Iowa’s kicker has made four from 50-plus and played a major part in multiple close victories this season. Shudak is also used on kickoffs but has a touchback rate of just 58.2 percent.

In the return game, Charlie Jones is used on both punts and kicks. The Buffalo transfer has been inefficient with punt returns, but the former walk-on is averaging over 26 yards per return with a touchdown on kickoffs.

Meanwhile, Iowa ranks in the top-40 in both punt return and kickoff return defense. The Hawkeyes excel on special teams and can quite often swing close games in the kicking game.

Keys to Victory

• Iowa leans on its defense to win football games. However, the Hawkeyes will be facing one of the top offenses on the schedule this season at the Citrus Bowl. The Wildcats are No. 16 nationally in yards per play and No. 6 in success rate on offense. The Hawks are No. 9 in yards per play and No. 10 in success rate on defense. This matchup can be broken down in 100 different ways, but whoever wins when Liam Coen and Phil Parker’s unit is on the field will have the upper hand.
• Kentucky’s efficiency on offense should allow the Wildcats to move the football. Iowa plays a lot of two-deep safeties so running lanes will be there and a boatload of zone coverage. That should create plenty of short completion opportunities. However, turnovers could play a huge role in the bowl game. Iowa leads the country in interceptions, and Kentucky has had turnover issues all season. If the Wildcats protect the rock, a double-digit victory could be on the table.
• The Hawks have major issues on offense, and the numbers have shown that. Iowa will have problems putting points up against a top-40 Kentucky defense. However, field position can give them a major advantage. Iowa ranks No. 2 nationally in average starting field position (Own 38). Kentucky has been pretty good about protecting its defense, but that must remain the same at the Citrus Bowl. The Wildcats cannot afford to give up some cheap scores to an anemic offense.
• Explosive plays should be hard for both offenses to find. Iowa and Kentucky are each built to eliminate chunk plays on defense. Therefore, finishing drives will be critical. The Wildcats have excelled at both. Meanwhile, Iowa’s offense has major issues again when entering the red area or extended red zone. Kentucky must win this matchup.
• On offense, Kentucky must stay committed to the running game. Iowa has an electric pass defense and can give offenses a ton of issues when teams fall behind the chains. The Wildcats must stay patient and be willing to take the profits on the ground.