Scouting Report: Miami (Ohio) RedHawks

The 2022 college football season is officially here. With a Kentucky night game to start the season at Kroger Field, the buzz is palpable for the Big Blue.

There is a lot of hype as Mark Stoops and his 10th team at Kentucky takes the field on Saturday, but there are many unknowns. We’ll learn a lot about some of those unknowns on Saturday night. Waiting for Kentucky will be a good MAC team that can move the ball through the air.

KSR’s scouting report series has returned as we take a deep dive into Chuck Martin’s Miami (Ohio) squad that is receiving its fair share of preseason hype.

Nuts and Bolts

You could make the argument that Miami (Ohio) owns the best football program in the Mid-American Conference. The school located just north of Cincinnati owns the MAC record for all-time wins (707), conference wins (306), MAC titles (16), and bowl wins (8).

Most of this was accomplished due to a great lineage of coaches. The RedHawks earned the nickname “Cradle of Coaches” for a reason.

Paul Brown, Woody Hayes, Ara Parseghian, Bo Schembechler, Bill Mallory, Jim Tressel, Ron Zook, Randy Walker, John Harbaugh, Gary Moeller, Dick Tomey, Terry Hoeppner, and Sean McVay have all spent time in Oxford. There appears to be something in the water on the campus of this midwestern school.

Despite the strong history, this is a program that fell on some hard times after winning the MAC title in 2010. The RedHawks hit an all-time low point with a 0-12 record in 2013. To rebuild the program back to respectability, Notre Dame assistant Chuck Martin was hired following that winless season.

The long-time assistant coach under Brian Kelly spent six years as the head coach of Division II Grand Valley State (Mich.) and won two national championships in six seasons before working for Kelly at Notre Dame for four seasons. While in South Bend, Martin coached the secondary and then switched to become the offensive coordinator in 2012 and 2013. The rising coach was more than qualified for the Miami (Ohio) gig.

After a slow 5-19 start to begin his tenure, the RedHawks had a breakthrough in 2016 going 6-2 in conference play before losing to Mississippi State in the St. Petersburg Bowl. Three years after that, this program made it to Detroit and won the MAC title in 2019 for the first time in a decade. Over the last four seasons, the RedHawks are 19-8 in MAC play but have yet to win more than eight games in a season.

This could be the year that Miami (Ohio) breaks that streak.

Saturday will be the 14th meeting between Kentucky and Miami (Ohio) on the gridiron. The Wildcats own an 8-4-1 series lead having won the last three meetings since 1991. The RedHawks are making the trip to Lexington for the first time since 2013 when Mark Stoops earned his first win at Kentucky. Kentucky has outscored Miami (Ohio) 83-7 in the last two matchups of this series.

Out in the desert, Kentucky is currently a 16-point favorite with a total of 54. That’s a projected final score of 35-19. The Wildcats are 10-0 straight up in their last 10 games as a favorite with a 6-3-1 ATS mark. However, UK is just 6-6 ATS as a 14-plus point favorite since 2018 and 1-6 ATS in the last seven home openers at Kroger Field. Miami (Ohio) is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a double-digit underdog.

Miami (Ohio) offense

Offensive coordinator Eric Koehler came to Miami (Ohio) in 2014 as one of Chuck Martin’s first hires. The two spent a couple of seasons together at Grand Valley State and have formed an offensive blueprint in Oxford. With a veteran quarterback, Miami (Ohio) has remained balanced while operating some from under center with a large dose of 11 personnel. Expect a heavy inside zone run scheme with a plethora of RPO actions.

Let’s check out the statistical profile Miami (Ohio) put out last season.

• Scoring: 28.9 (No. 63 overall)
• Success Rate: 40.5% (No. 61 overall)
• Yards Per Play: 6.3 (No. 33 overall)
• Yards Per Rush: 4.2 (No. 66 overall)
• Yards Per Attempt: 8.5 (No. 20 overall)
• Points Per Drive: 2.37 (No. 52 overall)
• Pass Play Percentage: 50.5% (No. 43 overall)
• Explosive Plays (20+ yards): 69 (T-35 overall)
• Red Zone TD Rate: 57.1% (T-83 overall)

Last fall, Miami (Ohio) was solid in almost every statistical measure. However, the RedHawks could have benefitted from leaning more into the passing game. That could happen in 2022 with one of the best quarterbacks in the Group of Five returning to Oxford.

St. Louis (Mo.) Christian Brothers product Brett Gabbert (6-0, 209, RJr.) is entering year four at Miami (Ohio). The younger brother of NFL quarterback Blaine Gabbert has been starting for the RedHawks since his true freshman season when he helped lead this program to a conference title. In 2021, his absence was notable.

Gabbert missed three games due to injury, and the statistical drop-off was significant.

• Miami (Ohio) without Brett Gabbert (3 games): 20 points per game, 5.5 yards per play
• Miami (Ohio) with Brett Gabbert (10 games): 31.6 points per game, 6.5 yards per play

The six-foot redshirt junior finished the year with a low completion percentage (59.5%) but logged a acceptable success rate (46.8%) and was a big play-hunter. Gabbert saw 20.1 percent of his throws end as completions of 15-plus yards. The quarterback had eight passes go for 50-plus yards and that ranked inside the top-10 nationally.

The quarterback is at his best when taking shots in the vertical pass game and flashes good ball placement on fades and posts. Gabbert will look to challenge a new-look Kentucky secondary.

At wideout, Jack Sorenson has moved on. The WR1 at Miami (Ohio) finished his career with 191 receptions for 3,070 yards and 20 touchdowns, but the cupboard has not been left bare. Gabbert has some quality options at his disposal.

Former Penn State transfer Mac Hippenhammer (5-11, 190, Super) emerged as a quality Z receiver for this offense last season recording 48 receptions for 786 yards while averaging an explosive 16.4 yards per catch. The veteran should step in for Sorenson and become a quality No. 1 option for this offense.

In the slot, Jalen Walker (5-8, 171, Super) returns after collecting 31 receptions for 398 yards last year. The Carmel (Ind.) High product is a good secondary option in the intermediate zones when the shot play throws are taken away.

To replace Sorenson at X receiver, Miami (Ohio) landed Indiana transfer Miles Marshall (6-4, 205, RSr.) to play in the boundary. The Georgia native gives this passing game some much-needed size and physicality. Marshall has played a lot over the past three years in the Big Ten accumulating 57 receptions for 797 yards. The transfer addition was a very good one of this MAC program.

The passing game has the personnel to be very good this season, but the running game must serve as a complement.

Koehler wants to have a steady dose of run to open up some vertical shot opportunities for this passing game. The offensive coordinator is going to have a lot of options to choose from in the backfield. Both Jaylon Bester (5-8, 180, Super) and Tyre Shelton (5-11, 182, RSr.) return from injury and should be the first two tailbacks used on Saturday. The duo has combined for 1,913 rushing yards and 20 touchdowns in their careers with Miami (Ohio). Bester brings solid value as a receiver (32 career receptions).

Kenny Tracy (5-10, 212, RSo.) rushed for over 100 yards in the bowl win over North Texas and provides some needed size. Former Kansas State transfer Keyon Mozee (5-7, 179, Jr.) started three games for the RedHawks last season. Expect a healthy rotation on Saturday as Miami (Ohio) has legitimate depth at tailback.

On the offensive line, Miami (Ohio) returns four starters from last season and brings back a collective 71 starts. With good length and mass among the first five, this group won’t be easy to push around. Rusty Feth (6-5, 304, RJr.) is the top player at center as the Cincinnati (Ohio) Colerain product brings 22 starts into the season along with multi-positional versatility.

The RedHawks had some big struggles in pass protection on the edge last, but all three tackles that played are returning. Up front, Miami (Ohio) projects to be very solid this season and has only one projected senior starter. The future is bright for this group.

Miami (Ohio) has a good quarterback surrounded by skill talent depth and an experienced offensive line plus continuity with the coaching staff. All signs point to this unit scoring a lot of points this fall.

Miami (Ohio) defense

Last year was a good season for the Miami (Ohio) defense until the offseason arrived. Before diving into everything that happened for the RedHawks, let’s take a look at this team’s statistical profile from 2021.

• Scoring: 23.1 (No. 40 overall)
• Success Rate: 38.6% (No. 37 overall)
• Yards Per Play: 5.5 (T-65 overall)
• Yards Per Rush: 3.9 (T-54 overall)
• Yards Per Attempt: 7.6 (T-84 overall)
• Points Per Drive: 2.02 (No. 47 overall)
• Tackles For Loss Per Game: 7.8 (T-7 overall)
• Sack Rate: 8.6% (No. 20 overall)
• Red Zone TD Rate: 55.9% (No. 46 overall)

The RedHawks were susceptible to teams that could generate explosive plays, but that was the risk they were willing to take. In this 4-2-5 scheme, Miami (Ohio) wants to shoot gaps, stunt their defensive lineman, and take calculated risks to get offenses behind the chains.

At times, that worked well in 2021, but most of the personnel responsible for crafting last year’s unit are no longer members of the program.

Co-defensive coordinators John Hauser and Spence Nowinsky have left for another MAC program. The latter will call the plays for Ohio this season. Chuck Martin promoted Bill Brechin to defensive coordinator, and Saturday will be his first game as a play-caller.

Brechin has inherited a bit of a tough hand as Miami (Ohio) has lost 79.4 percent of its tackles for loss production. Most notably, the top three front seven players on last year’s defense will be playing for other programs this season.

• Ivan Pace Jr. (LB, Cincinnati): 125 tackles, 13 tackles for loss
• Kameron Butler (EDGE, Virginia): 53 tackles, 13 tackles for loss
• Lonnie Phelps (EDGE, Kansas): 30 tackles, 13.5 tackles for loss

On top of that, Miami (Ohio) lost three starters in the secondary. There is a lot to replace. Luckily, there are two solid options at linebacker and that is where the strength of this year’s RedHawks defense will be found.

Matthew Salopek (6-1, 200, RJr.) stepped into the starting lineup last season and became an immediate producer for this defense at linebacker. The former safety was a second-team All-MAC selection as the Ohio native logged 112 tackles, seven tackles for loss, and six pass breakups. Miami (Ohio) needs Salopek to again produce a heavy amount of production with Pace now at Cincinnati.

Why did Salopek step into the starting lineup? Because Ryan McWood (6-2, 221, Super) was lost for the season after just 32 snaps last season. Thanks to a medical redshirt, this will be McWood’s seventh year at Miami (Ohio) as the Mike linebacker has started 17 games in his career and has provided solid play when healthy.

And the assist to Ryan McWood!

Watch Live: https://t.co/DGeNGCh7uw#RiseUpRedHawks pic.twitter.com/8F6O1ptNe6

— Miami Football (@MiamiOHFootball) September 28, 2019

The RedHawks will need these two to be consistent because there are a ton of other questions.

On the defensive line, Austin Ertl (6-2, 290, RJr.) returns at nose tackle where he’s started 17 games for the RedHawks. The Wisconsin native is active at the point of attack and is the clear best player on the four-down front. The coaching staff added transfers from Iowa State and Rutgers to help supplement this unit, but there are a lot of unproven pieces without much size. Both starting defensive ends could be under 265 pounds.

In the secondary, both John Saunders Jr. (6-2, 200, RSo.) and Jacquez Warren (6-0, 191, RSo.) flashed promise as young players last season at boundary cornerback and slot corner, respectively. The coaching staff will be reliant on both to level up in 2022. Saunders has a chance to be one of the best players on the defense as he possesses great positional size and length while showing some ball production (7 PBUs/INTs) last season.

Miami (Ohio) added Michigan State transfer Michael Dowell (6-1, 216, RSr.) in the offseason, and the Metro Cleveland native started four games for the Spartans last season. The redshirt senior will have some role in this defense. A pair of cornerback transfers were added to the roster from East Carolina and Mercer. The coaching staff is searching for answers in the secondary and this unit enters the year with much to prove.

With a brand new play-caller combined with a pair of position groups that have a lot of unknowns, the expectations should be low for this defense. Miami (Ohio) is dealing with numerous moving parts, and the success of this unit will likely be tied to the program’s hit rate in the transfer portal.

Miami (Ohio) special teams

In the third phase, placekicker Graham Nicholson (6-0, 174, So.) returns to Miami (Ohio) after starting as a true freshman last fall. The Cincinnati native was 15 of 20 (75%) on field goals with six makes from 40-plus yards. However, there were some short-distance concerns with five combined misfires on extra points and field goals under 30 yards. On kickoffs, Nichols had a mediocre touchback rate (46.1%).

Dom Dzioban (6-1, 200, RSo.) is back as the team’s starting punter. The Illinois native averaged just 39.2 yards per attempt but returns were limited with a 37.2 net average. Dzioban won’t flip the field, but it can be difficult to generate a return against Miami (Ohio).

The RedHawks took a committee approach on kickoff returns last year and saw middling results. The same will likely be true this season. Jalen Walker is the top option on both punts and kickoffs but hasn’t provided much pop.

The coverage teams on both kickoffs and punts were excellent for the RedHawks last season. Opposing teams had a difficult time generating good returns.

There are accuracy issues on field goals and a lack of power on punts, but overall Miami (Ohio) does a good job of playing it smart on special teams. The RedHawks aren’t going to make game-changing plays but also do a good job of avoiding game-losing plays.

Week 1 likely isn’t the time you see a big return from Kentucky.

Keys to victory

— Under defensive coordinator Brad White, Kentucky has consistently been one of the best defenses in college football at eliminating explosive plays. Despite having pass defense woes last season, the Wildcats ranked No. 4 nationally in pass plays of 30-plus yards (10) allowed. Miami (Ohio) ranked No. 19 nationally in pass plays of 30-plus yards (27) created. It will be strength on strength for Kentucky and Miami (Ohio) on Saturday. If the Wildcats limit explosives it will be very hard for the RedHawks to score because the overall offensive efficiency is not good enough to consistently put together scoring drives.

— Miami (Ohio) has lost two bonafide stud pass rushers on the edge and is breaking in multiple new starters in the secondary while the returnees have somewhat limited playing experience. Despite the new faces at wideout, Kentucky and Will Levis should have an advantage. The redshirt senior quarterback can have a big day passing the ball, and vertical shot opportunities will be available against a defense that likes to take some chances.

— How does a team create an upset? It’s usually by stealing possessions. Neither Kentucky nor Miami (Ohio) will play with much tempo so possessions can be limited if there aren’t many quick drives. Therefore, turnovers could have more importance. Kentucky found itself in a few close games that should have been double-digit wins last due to a negative turnover margin. The Wildcats have focused on fixing this in the offseason. Winning that on Saturday could turn this contest into a blowout.