Scouting Report: Mississippi State Bulldogs

The Mississippi State Bulldogs enter Rupp Arena this evening with a 13-5 record, 4-2 in the SEC. They are coming off a 78-60 win over Ole Miss on Saturday and also have home wins against Arkansas and Alabama. Despite the victory over the weekend, there was bad news in Starkville as it was announced that Tolu Smith would be “week-to-week” with a knee injury. He is the Bulldogs second leading scorer and their leading rebounder.

Coach Ben Howland is in his seventh season at the helm with a likely NCAA tournament team this year. This could be a big week for their resume with the trip to Lexington followed a Big 12/SEC Challenge matchup at Texas Tech on Saturday. The Bulldogs were quietly significant winners in the transfer portal this offseason. Garrison Brooks (North Carolina), Shakeel Moore (North Carolina State), and D.J. Jeffries (Memphis) are all starters. Additionally, Rocket Watts (Michigan State) has played as a backup guard in 13 games. However, it is Mississippi State veteran junior Iverson Molinar that is third in the SEC in scoring as one of the league’s most underrated players.

As always, we’ve got a full scouting report on the Mississippi State Bulldogs to get you ready for the game. You’ll find a detailed personnel analysis, full offensive and defensive breakdowns with video clips, and the keys to the game. Let’s dive in and get to know more about Kentucky’s opponent.

Mississippi State Bulldogs Personnel

Starters

#1 Iverson Molinar: 6’3″ 190 lbs, Junior Guard

17.7 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 4.3 apg

Aggressive, efficient scorer. Always thinking about scoring. Excellent off the dribble. He is much more aggressive attacking the basket than he is from 3-point range. STAY BETWEEN HIM AND THE BASKET!!! No right hand drives! You need to give him a step on the perimeter to make sure he doesn’t get by you off the dribble. Start the game hoping under the ballscreens and handoffs. Go up through the downscreens and flares. Don’t want him curling to the basket. Switch if there is space. Be ready to give a hard contest to the pull-up jumpers. Excellent pull-up jump shooter. Shooting 56.5% from 2 because he gets to the rim so much. Don’t over help. Very good passer. Just need to be great 1-on-1 on the ball. Contest everything! Make him score over you. Once he passes it make it hard for him to get it back. No help off him.

#3 Shakeel Moore: 6’1″ 185 lbs, Sophomore Guard

11.2 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 2.3 apg

Lefty. SHOOTER!!! NO 3’s!!! He is their primary 3-point shooting threat. You have to be tight to him and take away the catch-and-shoot 3’s. Tighten up as the ball comes towards you. Get over the ballscreens and handoffs. Chase off downscreens and flares. Switch if there is space to get out and take away the 3’s. Once you take away the 3 he is looking to drive it left. No left hand drives! Good finisher inside when he can drive it left all the way to the basket. Make him finish over you driving it to his right. More willing to shoot the pull-up going to his right. Give it a hard contest. You can help on his drives when he is going left, but stay home when he is going right. Take away the catch-and-shoot 3’s. Get all the way out to him. Find him in transition. No 3’s!

#13 D.J. Jeffries: 6’7″ 215 lbs, Junior Forward

10.1 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 1.8 apg

Physical, bigger wing. Really wants to attack closeouts. Capable shooter, 20-62 from 3, but much better around the basket. Good finisher inside using his strength and athleticism. Closeout a step short so he can’t attack your closeout. No right hand drives!!! You are closing out short with high hands to deter the catch-and-shoot 3, but most importantly to stay between him and the basket. Be willing to come help when he is driving it right. 33 assists to 33 turnovers. Come and steal the ball from him. Really looking to score with his right hand around the basket. Be physical on his left shoulder at the end of his drives and make him finish back into with his right. Do not let him get all the way to the rim. Very good offensive rebounder. Box out! No right hand drives. No layups.

#4 Cameron Mathews: 6’7″ 225, Sophomore Forward

4.4 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 1.6 apg

Will play as their 4-man with Tolu Smith out. Not super aggressive offensively. Strong, physical slasher and driver. No right hand drives!!! You can closeout short to begin the game and take away his ability to attack the closeouts. If you stay between him and the basket he won’t look to score. Right hand, left shoulder inside. Be physical on his left shoulder. Make him score with you between him and the basket. Don’t get back cut when you are guarding him. Excellent offensive rebounder. BOX OUT! No layups for him.

#10 Garrison Brooks: 6’9″ 230 lbs, Graduate Student Forward

11.2 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 0.7 apg

Skilled forward. Will slide to the 5 with Tolu Smith out. Will face-up a lot to use his athleticism and skill to score. Capable 3-point shooter. Just need to be there and throw a hand up to contest. Very good from mid-range. Need to give a hard contest to all mid-range jumpers. Will drive it right when he faces up. No right hand drives! Right hand, left shoulder in the post. Will duck you in looking for deep post catches. Get him off the block. When he faces up in the mid-range you can bring help and make him pass it. 13 assists to 23 turnovers. Aggressively dig the ball out of the post. Come steal it from him. Averages 2.3 offensive rebounds per game. Be physical. BOX OUT! Have guard him in that 15-20 foot range and bring help when he dribbles it. Contest everything!

Bench

#2 Javian Davis: 6’9″ 240 lbs, Redshirt Junior Forward

5.3 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 0.4 apg

Backup big man. Very strong and physical. He is looking for deep post catches. Will duck you in. Don’t let him catch it with two feet in the paint. Get him off the block. His percentages will go down the further out you make him catch it. Right hand, left shoulder in the post. Be physical on his left shoulder. You can pick and choose a spot to come steal the ball off him. 7 assists to 19 turnovers. Make him score over you inside. Excellent offensive rebounder. Box out!

#0 Rocket Watts: 6’2″ 185 lbs, Junior Guard

4.1 ppg, 0.5 rpg, 0.5 apg

Quick, athletic backup guard. Handles the ball a lot when he is in there. More of a driver than a shooter. NO RIGHT HAND DRIVES!!! You can closeout short on the perimeter to take away the right hand drives. Willing shooter, but just 7-24 from 3. Throw a hand up to contest, but we don’t want him to attack closeouts. Make him score with you between him and the basket. Go under the ballscreens and handoffs. Get the ball stopped when he is bringing it in transition. No layups for him!

#11 Andersson Garcia: 6’7″ 210 lbs, Sophomore Guard/Forward

3.6 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 1.2 apg

Long, athletic backup wing. Good mid-range jump shooter. Need to be there to take away the catch-and-shoot 15-foot jump shots. Treat him like Keion Brooks. Closeout a step short from 3, but treat him as a shooter from 15-20 feet. Right hand, left shoulder around the basket. Will look to attack a closeout to his right. No right hand drives. Will crash the offensive glass from the perimeter. Box out!

#20 Derek Fountain: 6’9″ 220 lbs, Sophomore Forward

2.3 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 0.7 apg

Backup 4-man. Might play more with Tolu Smith out. Right hand, left shoulder around the basket. Be physical and get him off the block. Not shooting a very good percentage when he has to score over his defender. No dropsteps. Will face up and shoot the little jump shot. Just give it a contest. Box out.

Mississippi State Bulldogs Offense

The Mississippi State Bulldogs are excellent from 2-point range. They love to attack the basket off the dribble and that aggressiveness has led to them becoming a top 25 offense per KenPom’s adjusted efficiency metric. When you can consistently get to the rim and the foul line it makes the game a little bit easier.

Coach Howland’s group shoots 54.7% from 2, good for 37th nationally, and is 38th with 57.1% of their points coming via the 2-point shot. They don’t take a lot of 3’s and aren’t patricianly good at them either, so the Bulldogs simply are playing to their strengths. Iverson Molinar shoots a ridiculous 56.5% from 2-point range while backcourt mate Shakeel Moore is at 50.6%. Those are impressive rates for guards. We have to do a great job of keeping these guys out of the paint and taking them away at the rim.

As has been a theme for Mississippi State under Coach Howland, the Bulldogs are one of the best rebounding teams in the country. They are 12th nationally in offensive rebounding percentage while opponents have the 24th lowest offensive rebounding percentage. This will be one of our biggest tests on the glass this season. The loss of Tolu Smith will hurt both with their 2-point scoring and the offensive rebounding, but there are still plenty of pieces in place. Let’s go on in to the film room.

Cross Screen/Downscreen

Mississippi State runs a few different screen-the-screener actions. Several of these plays were run for Tolu Smith who is now out, but they could just easily cross screen for Garrison Brooks. When they downscreen for #3 Moore we have to stay attached and not give up this open of a look from beyond the arc. He is the only shooter that we are really worried about. Fight through the screens, chase him, and switch if there is space. No 3’s!

This time the Bulldogs get to their screen-the-screen action from a Horns alignment. Helping on the cross screen is fine, but you have to recover with urgency when guarding #3 Moore. We really don’t want to help off him at all, let your help come from somewhere else. If we don’t lose him like Ole Miss does here, they won’t be able to score enough to win the game.

Horns Ballscreen

One of the keys to our defensive success tonight will staying between your man and the basket. Everyone besides #3 Moore we are much more concerned about as a driver than a shooter. There is no reason to guard #0 Watts this far from the basket. Don’t open the gate and give him this clear of a driving lane to the rim. Square him up and play a couple steps off him if you can’t stay in front off the dribble. He will have a hard time scoring if you are between him and the basket. Go under the ballscreens when he has the ball.

High Ballscreen

Iverson Molinar is a really, really good player. This clip shows him at his best from mid-range which is where he loves to score. We don’t want to guard him this far away from the basket and we want to go under the ballscreens. Going under will help stay between him and the basket so you can give a better contest to the mid-range jumper.

Floppy

We have to chase #3 Moore at all times. We need to make Mississippi State work much harder than this to score. They don’t necessarily even want to score quickly, so giving up these easy buckets early in the shot clock are no good. No open jump shots for #3 Moore!

Downscreen to Handoff

Ole Miss actually does a good job of guarding this action from the Bulldogs. We want to go underneath the handoffs when #1 Molinar is coming off just like they do. The goal is to stay between him and the basket. This clip shows #10 Brooks’ offensive skill from the mid-range. It is okay if he makes a tough, contested step back like this but we have to make him earn it.

Mississippi State Bulldogs Defense

Typically, if you protect the rim, generate steals, and rebound at a high level you are well on your way to a very good defense. However, the Mississippi State Bulldogs have struggled to guard people despite being excellent in those three phases. The Bulldogs are going to pack it in and really try to protect the paint at all costs.

The defensive struggles for this pack-line, man-to-man team defensively has come from getting blitzed from beyond the arc. Opponents are shooting 34.3% from deep and making just over 8.5 3’s per game. This is a stylistic decision by Coach Howland, but it has led to mixed results for the Bulldogs. In back-to-back losses to Minnesota and Colorado State in December those clubs shot a combined 23-55 from deep. However, they were able to beat Arkansas and Alabama thanks to neither team breaking 30% from deep on 27 and 29 attempts respectively. Overall, in four of the Bulldogs five losses, their opponent has made double-digit 3-point shots. We must be ready to shoot it tonight.

Keys to the Game

• Stay between them and the basket. No right hand drives or layups for #1 Molinar. Don’t let them attack closeouts. We want to keep them out of the paint and force 3’s and contested jump shots.
• No 3’s for #3 Moore. He is the one shooter we are worried about to start the game. Don’t help off him. Stay tight. Chase him at all times.
• Dominate the glass. Mississippi State is 12th in offensive rebounding and 24th in defensive rebounding. This will be a big test on the boards, but it should still be our advantage.
• SHOOT ‘EM ALL!!! The Bulldogs are a pack-line team and really protect the paint. They will give up 3’s. We have to be willing to shoot 20-25 3’s tonight. The goal should be double-digit makes.