Scouting Report: Mississippi State Bulldogs

BRamseyKSR

How you respond to adversity is what separates the good teams from the great teams. It is easy to have things rolling when you are on a winning streak. However, getting up off of the mat after an emotional loss is much harder.

This week is all about holding serve at Rupp Arena. The No. 8 Kentucky Wildcats (12-3, 2-1) host the Mississippi State Bulldogs (12-4, 1-2) on Wednesday night in an important Southeastern Conference contest. Both teams are coming off of a loss as the Wildcats lost 97-92 in overtime at Texas A&M while the Bulldogs fell at home 82-74 against Alabama. From Kentucky’s perspective, the loss in College Station essentially becomes meaningless if you take care of business at home in these two games.

Coach Chris Jans was able to fight and claw his way to a NCAA Tournament berth in his first season in Starkville. Things were downright ugly offensively as the Bulldogs finished dead last in the country shooting 26.6% from three-point range. However, they had a Top 10 defense that led them to 21 wins. Now, in year two, the defense is still elite but the offense is much improved. Mississippi State still won’t light up the scoreboard, they rank 72nd in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency and are shooting 32.0% from three which is 239th nationally, but it is clearly a step in the right direction. SEC Player of the Year candidate Tolu Smith is back healthy now as well which has given the ‘Dawgs another shot in the arm.

As always, we have prepared a full, in-depth scouting report for Kentucky’s next opponent. We will take a deep dive into the Bulldogs’ personnel, break down their offensive and defensive schemes, and highlight the keys to the game for the ‘Cats. Let’s dive in and get to know more about the Mississippi State Bulldogs.

Mississippi State Bulldogs Personnel

Starters

#10 Dashawn Davis: 6’2″ 190 lbs, Graduate Student Guard
7.6 ppg, 2.0 rpg, 3.4 apg

Point Guard. Primary ball handler when he is in the game. Capable shooter. 16-47 from 3. More aggressive as a right-hand driver. No right-hand drives! He is looking to get all the way to the basket when driving it right. Very quick. You need to get over and cut off the right-hand drive. Hop underneath the ballscreens and handoffs. He isn’t looking to shoot the ones behind the ballscreen. Be there to contest the obvious catch-and-shoot 3s, but then bounce back and guard against the right-hand drive. Stay between him and the basket and make him finish. He is not a good finisher unless he is all the way at the rim. Do not overhelp when he drives. Just get your hands up and make him finish. No right-hand drives. No layups for him.

#3 Shakeel Moore: 6’1″ 190 lbs, Senior Guard
8.0 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 1.7 apg

Left-handed. Capable shooter. 37% but on low volume. Left-hand driver. No left-hand drives! He is looking to get all the way to the basket when driving it left. More likely to shoot the floater or pull up for a jump shot when going right. Do not over-help, especially when he is driving it right. Likes to use the shot fake on the perimeter to drive it left. Stay down on the fakes. Just be there to give a hard contest to the obvious catch-and-shoot 3s, but you don’t need to fly at him. Hop underneath the ballscreens and handoffs. He isn’t looking to shoot the ones behind the ballscreen. We want to stay between him and the basket and make him finish contested 2s going to his right. No left-hand drives. No layups for him.

#0 D.J. Jeffries: 6’7″ 215 lbs, Graduate Student Forward
6.9 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 2.0 apg

Strong, physical wing. Very willing shooter, but much more dangerous as a right-hand driver. No right-hand drives!!! 55 of 102 shots have been 3s, but shooting just 23.6%. Be there to contest the obvious catch-and-shoot threes and then bounce back to guard against the right-hand drives. He is very physical at the end of his drives. Be ready for him to bring it into your chest. Will shot fake, spin, and step through to finish with his right hand inside. Always coming back right! Stay down, wall up, and make him score over you. Right hand, left shoulder if he catches it in the post. Will shoot the little turnaround jumper as well. Give it a hard contest. Anytime he catches it you have to be thinking about him driving it right. Good offensive rebounder. Box out!

#4 Cameron Matthews: 6’7″ 230 lbs, Senior Forward
9.4 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 2.9 apg

Strong, athletic forward. RIGHT HAND DRIVER!!! No right-hand drives!!! He is a non-shooter. Just 1-16 from three. You do not have to guard him on the perimeter. Close out short and be ready for him to drive it at you to his right hand. You should never be beyond the three-point line guarding him. When in doubt, back up further. Excellent finisher inside when he is allowed to get to his right hand. Will shot fake, spin, and step through to finish with his right hand inside. Always coming back right! Stay down, wall up, and make him score over you. Right hand, left shoulder if he catches it in the post. Elite offensive rebounder. He will crash hard from wherever he is on the floor. You have to find him and make contact. Box out! Absolutely no right-hand drives!

#1 Tolu Smith III: 6’11” 245 lbs, Graduate Student Center
16.8 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 1.0 apg

Talented post player. Very physical inside. Looking to duck you in at all times. Don’t let yourself get buried. Will ballscreen and roll to the basket. They are aggressively looking to throw it inside. Do your work early and get him pushed off of the block. His percentages will go down the further off of the block you make him catch it. Right hand, left shoulder in the post. No quick drop steps. You need to aggressively dig the ball out of the post when he catches you. The deeper he catches it the quicker you need to go. 4 assists, 12 turnovers. Go with the plan of either stealing it or fouling him. Don’t get caught in the middle. Elite offensive rebounder. You have to be physical and keep him off of the glass. Make him score over you outside of the paint.

Bench

#13 Josh Hubbard: 5’10” 190 lbs, Freshman Guard
15.1 ppg, 2.2 rpg, 1.4 apg

Backup point guard. Will be the primary ball handler a lot when he is in there. SHOOTER!!! NO 3s!!! 116 of 117 shots have been 3s. Shooting 38.8% from 3. You have to be tight to him at all times to take him away from 3. Tighten up to him as the ball is driven towards you. Absolutely no help off of him. Get OVER the ballscreens and handoffs. CHASE him off of downscreens and get over the flares. Be very willing to switch anytime there is too much space. If you switch you have to switch OUT to take him away from 3. He will drive it right when you take him away from 3. We want to make him finish 2s. Contest all pull-up jump shots. No 3s for him.

#15 Jimmy Bell Jr.: 6’10” 280 lbs, Graduate Student Center
8.2 ppg, 7.9 rpg, 0.9 apg

Backup post. They will look to throw it to him just like they do #1 Smith. Very physical inside. He will seal you off as guards drive to the basket. Don’t get sealed. Will duck you in hard. Don’t let yourself get buried. Do your work early and get him pushed off of the block. His percentages will go down the further off of the block you make him catch it. Right hand, left shoulder in the post. Not as efficient as Smith so you don’t need to double as much, but you should still stunt and dig at him. The deeper he catches it the more aggressive you should be. 14 assists, 31 turnovers. Go with the plan of either stealing it or fouling him if you go. Don’t get caught in the middle. Excellent offensive rebounder. Averaging 2.6 offensive rebounds per game. Box out!!!

#11 Trey Fort: 6’4″ 200 lbs, Junior Guard
5.6 ppg, 2.2 rpg, 0.5 apg

Backup guard. SHOOTER!!! NO 3s!!! 48 of 68 shots have been 3s. You have to be tight to him at all times to take him away from 3. Tighten up to him as the ball is driven towards you. Absolutely no help off of him. Get OVER the ballscreens and handoffs. CHASE him off of downscreens and get over the flares. Be very willing to switch anytime there is too much space. If you switch you have to switch OUT to take him away from 3. He will drive it right when you take him away from 3. We want to make him finish 2s. Contest all pull-up jump shots. No 3s for him.

#5 Shawn Jones Jr.: 6’5″ 205 lbs, Sophomore Guard
4.9 ppg, 1.8 rpg, 0.8 apg

Bigger backup guard. Willing shooter. 32 of 64 shots have been 3s. Shooting 31.3%. You need to be there to contest the obvious catch-and-shoot 3s. More worried about him as a right-hand driver though. No right-hand drives! Once you take away the obvious catch-and-shoot you need to bounce back and guard against the right-hand drive. Physical, athletic driver. You can hop underneath the ballscreens and handoffs to stay between him and the basket. Likes to use the shot fake around the basket and is always spinning back to finish with his right hand. Stay down, wall up, and make him score over you. Will crash the offensive glass from the perimeter. Good offensive rebounder. You need to make contact with him when the shot goes up. No right-hand drives.

Mississippi State Bulldogs Offense

When you think about the Mississippi State Bulldogs their offense isn’t the first thing that comes to mind. However, it has gotten markedly better this season compared to last. The Bulldogs are still shooting just 32.0% from three, but that is a drastic improvement from their nation’s worst 26.6% in 2022-2023. They are very good around the basket thanks to talented post players like Tolu Smith and Jimmy Bell along with efficient drive-first forwards such as DJ Jeffries and Cameron Matthews. Their aggressiveness inside also lends itself to getting to the foul line frequently. In terms of scheme, Coach Jans sticks with some ballscreen continuity, 4-around-1 Motion, and a lot of set plays to throw the ball in the post. Keeping them off of the glass will be a key as well.

Here is a look at a pretty typical half-court set you’ll see from the Mississippi State Bulldogs. The play begins from a box set and they reverse the ball around clearing out the strong side block. From there, #1 Smith follows the ball and immediately starts working on getting position against his defender. Smith is able to push him up the lane line just enough to get some separation on the entry pass, collect himself, and finish with a dunk. He is so strong inside and has great footwork. You have to make him score with you between him and the basket.

This possession features an empty side ballscreen set that allows #1 Smith to roll into the post. The Bulldogs can flow into their continuity from here, but they really just want to get the ball inside. We can live with Smith getting catches this far off of the block. However, you still have to do a good job of stunting and digging at him. What we can’t have happen is bring the double from the low side where it doesn’t disrupt his passing angles at all. He is able to whip the pass to a wide-open teammate as Alabama fails to cover up the backside. There is no reason to follow #0 Jeffries all the way to the corner on the weak side. Stay in the play and bother the ball as he empties out towards the corner.

Mississippi State isn’t nearly as good or as aggressive attacking the rim as Texas A&M was on Saturday. However, guys like #4 Matthews are very good right-hand drives. He is a complete non-shooter though so there is no reason to get beat off of the dribble like this. You do not need to close out to him on the perimeter. Just stay in and let him bring it to you. This clip also shows how #1 Smith will look to duck in at the front of the rim. Don’t let yourself get buried. We cannot give up right-hand drives and dunks like this to Matthews.

There are only two Mississippi State Bulldogs that we have to truly treat as shooters, #13 Hubbard and #11 Fort. Those two guys, more than anything else, want to shoot catch-and-shoot 3s. You will need to get over the top of this middle handoff for #11 Fort. If you don’t, he will settle behind it and shoot the 3 as you see here. Stay tight and take him away from 3!

Anytime Mississippi State runs something on the perimeter, like the Zoom action you see here, they are still primarily thinking about getting the ball inside to #1 Smith. He does such a good job of slamming into his man early to start getting position with two feet in the paint. Smith’s strength allows him to play right through the chest of his defender and finish off of the power dribble after facing up. This will be a game where Rob Dillingham and Reed Sheppard can be very aggressive off of the ball and come steal it when the ball goes in the post.

Texas A&M had some success setting this little “step up” ballscreen on the wing. You’ll see the Mississippi State Bulldogs do something similar on Wednesday evening. You should always be ready to switch any guard-on-guard action, especially when it is set downhill. Even if they end up ghosting the screen you should be prepared to switch. However, in this clip, Tennessee fails to communicate the switch and #4 Matthews is allowed to turn the corner for an And-1. We HAVE to take away his ability to drive the ball to the basket.

Mississippi State Bulldogs

This is where Coach Jans and the Mississippi State Bulldogs make their money. They will play almost exclusively man-to-man with the ability to switch a lot 1-4 due to having very athletic forwards. Mississippi State has produced a Top 10 defense this season, per KenPom, led by the fact that opponents shoot just 27.7% from three-point range. That mark is ninth in the country. The Bulldogs have been opportunistic as well when it comes to creating live ball turns with a 12.6% steal rate which ranks 25th nationally. Two of our strengths, shooting 3s and taking care of the ball, directly combat two of their defensive strengths. Which side is able to win the strength versus strength battle will likely win the game.

Keys to the Game

Contain #1 Smith inside. It is nearly impossible to completely neutralize an All-SEC level player, but you have to make it as hard on him as possible. Force him to turn it over with aggressive digs, stunts, and double teams. Don’t let him catch the ball with two feet in the paint. Keep him off the offensive glass.
No 3s for #13 Hubbard or #11 Fort. These are the Bulldogs’ two primary shooting threats. If you limit them to three or fewer combined 3s it will be very hard for the rest of the team to make enough to stay in the game.
Rebound the basketball. Mississippi State gets 33.8% of its own misses which is 55th in the country. It is a far cry from Texas A&M levels, but still very good. We must be 75% or better on the defensive glass.
Shoot 75% or better from the free throw line.