Scouting Report: New Mexico State Aggies

Believe it or not, Week 12 of the college football season has arrived. Kentucky will play its final home game of the season on Saturday afternoon when the Wildcats welcome New Mexico State into Kroger Field.

Mark Stoops’ ninth team in Lexington has a chance to close the season strong as the Wildcats will be taking on one of the worst teams in the FBS to finish the home slate. However, NMSU has played hard throughout the season with a pass-heavy offense and an aggressive defense. Those two issues have given the Wildcats some problems this season.

KSR has done the deep dive and has all the info on the Aggies in this week’s scouting report.

Nuts and Bolts

Being the head coach at New Mexico State is a very difficult job. History has proven that.

The Aggies are over 200 games below .500 in their program’s history and have made the postseason just four times. There has been a lot more good than bad in Las Cruces over the years.

After the WAC was a casualty of conference realignment, NMSU found itself without a home to go along with Idaho. Both schools would on to join the Sun Belt, but that relationship would last just five years ending in 2017. The Vandals decided to go back to FCS, and the Aggies joined independent life.

However, that abyss could be about to end. The last batch of conference realignment appeared to help New Mexico State, and the Aggies will join C-USA in the 2023 season.

Head coach Doug Martin has been at NMSU for nine seasons and helped guide the program through the transition from the Sun Belt and then into Independent life. Martin led the Aggies to the Arizona Bowl in 2017, but it’s been ugly since.

NMSU is 7-29 since that bowl win in Tucson and has to get through one more football season without a home. Once again, the Aggies are having a very difficult season with a handful of blowout losses to Group of Five opponents.

Saturday afternoon will be the second meeting all-time between Kentucky and New Mexico State. The Aggies made the trip to Lexington in 2016 where Kentucky defeated NMSU in a shootout with 104 combined points scored.

Out in the desert, Kentucky is a 36-point favorite with a total of 60. That’s a projected final score of 48-12. The Wildcats are on a three-game losing streak against the spread (ATS), and NMSU is 3-1 ATS as a dog of 20 points or more this season.

New Mexico State offense

Under Doug Martin, the Aggies have gone to a spread attack that likes to spread out defenses and use Air Raid principles to gain yards and score points. NMUS is No. 6 nationally in pass play percentage (62.19%) as this will be the most pass-heavy offense Kentucky will have seen outside of Mississippi State. The Aggies will constantly line up in four-wide sets looking to play football in space.

However, the overall numbers are not great.

NMSU is throwing the ball 45 times per game and ranks in the top-10 nationally in total snaps per game (80.2) as tempo is a big part of this offense’s DNA. However, points are just not coming with it.

At quarterback, redshirt junior Jonah Johnson (No. 10) is one of many junior college transfers on the roster. In his first year starting at the FBS level, it has been a mixed bag for Johnson. However, the California native has some playmaking ability.

At 235 pounds, Johnson can move around and make plays but he has struggled with efficiency. The new starter is completing just 57.8 percent of his passes and averaging less than six yards per attempt. The offense struggles with efficiency and cannot consistently create chunk plays. That is a concern.

At wide receiver, the ball is spread around to four different wideouts with at least 30 receptions. Jared Wyatt (No. 1) leads the team with 42 receptions as the super senior is the offense’s top target. However, Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda (No. 2) is the most dangerous weapon. The redshirt sophomore is averaging over 15 yards per reception and leads the team in receiving touchdowns (4). The young player is someone New Mexico State can build a future around as he has five receptions of 25-plus yards.

In the backfield is where the best position on New Mexico State’s offense can be found. Juwaun Price (No. 9) is RB1 leads the squad in rushing yards (486) to go along with 21 receptions. However, O’Maury Samuels (No. 5) is a quality second option, and the Michigan transfer will see plenty of reps.

However, these two quality tailbacks do not have much room to operate.

The line of scrimmage has had a lot of issues and that is mainly due to a revolving door at right tackle. The Aggies have played three different players and have an “or” listed for each on the depth chart. That position has struggled all season.

Ole Miss grad transfer Eli Johnson (No. 61) has solidified the center position, but left tackle Sage Doxtater (No. 76) is the best player on the offense. At 6-7 and 350 pounds, Doxtater can do some good things in both the run and pass game.

Overall, this offense has a ton of issues and does not do any one thing well. However, the Aggies hang their hat on tempo. If third downs can be converted, New Mexico State can give defenses some issues.

New Mexico State defense

Frank Spaziani has been around the game of football for a long time. The 74-year-old defensive coordinator was the head coach at Boston College from 2009-12 and led the Eagles to a pair of bowl games. After taking a few years off, Doug Martin lured him out of retirement in 2016, and he’s now in his sixth season calling defenses at New Mexico State.

The Aggies will utilize a three-down structure with a hybrid linebacker. New Mexico State wants to take chances and create negative plays. Overall, this has been a very inefficient unit.

On the line of scrimmage, NMSU has gone young at nose tackle with a pair of freshmen and that has caused some growing pains. Defensive end Donavan King (No. 26) is a good player at defensive end with seven non-sack tackles for loss, 2.5 sacks, and two forced fumbles, but the redshirt junior is not getting a ton of help.

On the edge, super senior Micahel Bowe Jr. (No. 6) plays the hybrid spot for the defense, and the South Florida native has been effective at points, but not enough plays are being made.

Overall, this unit does not have great gap discipline and gets pushed around at the point of attack. The Aggies have allowed over 200 yards rushing in six games this season and fall behind the chains consistently on a down-to-down basis.

At the second level, Chris Ojoh (No. 3) is the clear top dog of the defense. The Eastern Washington transfer does not come off the field and has been a playmaker all season. The California native has six sacks, seven non-sack tackles for loss, and three forced fumbles. Kentucky must know where Ojoh is at all times and get him blocked.

At Mike and Will, NMSU platoons at each spot and is looking for answers at the second level. Young players Nick Giacolone (No. 24) and Josh Ferguson (No. 4) have taken their lumps at Will. Meanwhile, veterans Trevor Brohard (No. 80) and Eric Marsh (No. 48) hold down the middle. The entire unit outside of Ojoh has had a lot of issues.

In the secondary, cornerback D.J. McCullough (No. 7) paces the defense with three interceptions and a forced fumble. Meanwhile, NMSU is hoping to develop sophomores Syrus Dumas (No. 13) and Torren Union (No. 15).

At safety, NMSU has also had coverage problems with free safety Caleb Mills (No. 12) who can get beat deep. However, freshman Dylan Early (No. 28) could be someone to build around.

Overall, the defense has major issues. New Mexico State is a unit that has a fair share of similarities with Vanderbilt. The run defense isn’t great, the pass defense is quite awful, but there has been some moderate success on third down and takeaways have been forced.

If the Aggies can create some tackles for loss and get Kentucky into long passing downs, NMSU might have a fighting chance at getting consistent stops.

New Mexico State special teams

In the third phase, NMSU has had both good and bad. The Aggies have punted a lot, and that means a lot of work for Josh Carlson.

The Division II transfer is No. 8 nationally in punts (59) and is averaging 41.1 yards per attempt. A dozen punts have been downed inside the 20 with a few going 50-plus. However, the Aggies have been leaky on punt defense.

Opponents are averaging over 12 yards per punt return as Carlson can sometimes outkick his coverage. Another return opportunity could be available for Josh Ali.

At kicker, Ethan Albertson has made 13 of 18 field goals but has struggled with accuracy. Albertson is just 4 of 6 on kicks inside 30 yards but 10 of 12 on attempts over 30 yards.

The Aggies don’t get much of anything in the return game. Overall, this is a below-average special teams unit that can struggle when the kicker and punter are not locked in.

Keys to Victory

• Starts can always be weird on a senior day. The lead-up and how you get ready for the game are just different. Having a noon kickoff on top of it can make the beginning of games even more awkward. Kentucky must find a way to get settled in despite a different start.
• New Mexico State wants to play with tempo and throw the ball around the yard. Kentucky wants to use balance and ball control to win games. The Wildcats need to dictate the terms of the game. Putting together a couple of early scoring drives would help accomplish that mission.
• Will Levis has put back-to-back good performances together against both Tennessee and Vanderbilt after a disappointing performance against Mississippi State. Putting another strong performance on the field could help QB1 continue to build confidence as the season closes.
• Kentucky’s defense has had a lot of issues. Pass defense and the lack of turnovers get the most attention, but situational football has also failed them. The Wildcats are No. 100 nationally in third/fourth down defense allowing a 50 percent conversion rate. Facing a team that wants to run a bunch of plays, getting off the field in these situations will be critical if you do not want the big underdog to hang around.
• Against Vanderbilt, Kentucky limited the Commodores to just three scoring opportunities in nine possessions. However, Vandy was able to get 17 points on the board thanks to a long field goal and two red zone touchdowns on fourth downs. Kentucky will give up yards, but to beat Louisville next week the Wildcats must get scoring opportunity stops. Creating those on Saturday against NMSU could give the team a confidence boost.