Scouting Report: North Carolina Tar Heels

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Despite defeating, at the time, #8 ranked Miami the Kentucky Wildcats are still in search of their first Quad 1 win. Playing in the Southeastern Conference will provide several opportunities, but this game against the #9 North Carolina Tar Heels is an important opportunity for a resume builder.

No non-conference game played on December 16th will ever be a must-win game. However, when you lose to UNC Wilmington, picking up a quality win like this becomes much more important. That is what the #14 Wildcats will look to do at 5:30 p.m. EST at the State Farm Arena in Atlanta as part of the annual CBS Sports Classic. Whether you want to qualify it as a must-win or not there is no denying the importance of this matchup.

The Tar Heels rolled to a 4-0 start to the season before going 2-1 at the Battle 4 Atlantis. Villanova knocked them off 83-81 in overtime in the semifinals, but UNC responded with an impressive 87-72 win over Arkansas. Since then they have also defeated Tennessee and Florida State before falling to defending national champion UConn. Analytically, North Carolina has a lot of similarities to the Wildcats. They play fast, are excellent offensively, and average defensively. The primary differences come in their rebounding advantage and how often they get to the foul line. If the ‘Cats can play those two areas close to a draw it’ll go a long way towards finding success in Atlanta.

As always, we have prepared a full, in-depth scouting report for Kentucky’s latest opponent. We will take a deep dive into the Tar Heels’ personnel, break down their offensive and defensive schemes, and highlight the keys to the game for the ‘Cats. Let’s dive in and get to know more about the North Carolina Tar Heels.

North Carolina Tar Heels Personnel

Starters

#2 Elliot Cadeau: 6’1″ 180 lbs, Freshman Point Guard

7.1 ppg, 1.6 rpg, 4.1 apg

Primary ball handler. Much more aggressive as a right-hand driver than as a shooter. No right-hand drives!!! Give him a step or two on the perimeter in order to stay between the ball and the basket. You don’t need to guard him out beyond the arc. Go UNDER the ballscreens and handoffs. Closeout short to him on the perimeter. You want to stay between him and the basket so he can’t make plays for others. Will use the shot fake to try and drive it. Stay down. Do not over help when he drives it, but especially when he drives it left. When he drives it left he is driving to pass. Tighten up to your man as he drives it towards you. Get the ball stopped in transition. Keep him out of the paint by going UNDER and giving ground. No layups for him. Don’t over help!

#4 RJ Davis: 6’0″ 180 lbs, Senior Guard

21.0 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 2.7 apg

Dynamic scoring guard. Have to play him as straight up as possible. Very good shooter but also aggressive as a right-hand driver. Get OVER the ballscreens and handoffs. CHASE off of downscreens and get OVER the flares. SWITCH anytime there is too much space. We want to get OVER the ballscreens and then give ground to help corral him and force him into a contested jump shot. Stay on his hip as you fight back around and make him score a contested runner or pull-up. We would rather him shoot the contested pull-up than hit #5 Bacot on the roll. Have to be tight to him at all times and then move your feet to try and stay in front of the dribble. Contest everything. We want more shots than points for him. No uncontested 3s. No right-hand layups.

#3 Cormac Ryan: 6’5″ 195 lbs, Graduate Student Guard

10.4 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 1.8 apg

SHOOTER!!! NO 3s!!! 47 of 73 shots have been 3s. He is primarily hunting catch-and-shoot 3s. Do not consider his current percentage. Get OVER the ballscreens and handoffs. CHASE off of downscreens and get OVER the flares. SWITCH if there is too much space out on the perimeter. When you switch you are switching OUT aggressively to take him away from 3. Absolutely no help off of him on the perimeter. You don’t have responsibilities other than taking away his catch-and-shoot 3s when guarding him. Tighten up to him as the ball is driven towards you. When you take away his catch-and-shoot 3s he will drive it right, but we would rather make him drive it. Find him in transition. Pressure him on the perimeter. Be tight. No 3s!

#55 Harrison Ingram: 6’7″ 235 lbs, Junior Forward

15.1 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 2.6 apg

Skilled, physical 4-man. Have to play him as straight up as possible. 19-41 from 3-point range. You have to be there to take away his catch-and-shoot 3s. Tighten up to him as the ball is driven towards you. Will look to pick-and-pop some on the perimeter. Need to close out to him HARD on the pick-and-pop. You certainly can always switch to take away the pick-and-pop, but a little more hesitant because of his ability to exploit a mismatch off of the dribble. Loves to turn right-hand drives into post moves. You have to be ready to be physical with him as he backs you down. Stunt and fake at him to make him give it up. Right hand, left shoulder in the post. Crashes the offensive glass hard. Averages 2 per game. Be physical when he backs you down. No catch-and-shoot 3s.

#5 Armando Bacot: 6’11” 240 lbs, Graduate Student Forward/Center

15.9 ppg, 11.9 rpg, 1.4 apg

Physical 5-man. Posting up hard at all times. Looking for deep post catches. They will run a lot of diagonal backscreen and cross-screen action to get him the ball inside. Also will ballscreen and roll to the basket. You have to give ground, stay lower than him on the roll, and recover quickly. We would rather make the ball handler finish a contested 2 than give up a bucket on the roll. Right hand, left shoulder in the post. No quick drop steps to the baseline. Be physical and get him off of the block. His percentages go down the further off of the block you make him catch it. Stunt and fake at him. If you double do so aggressively to come steal the ball. Averages nearly 4 offensive rebounds per game. Be physical. Box out. No catches with two feet in the paint.

Bench

#7 Seth Trimble: 6’3″ 195 lbs, Sophomore Guard

5.2 ppg, 1.8 rpg, 0.7 apg

Backup guard. Much more aggressive as a driver than a shooter. 3-6 from 3 on the season. Be there to put a hand up to contest if he shoots from the perimeter. More worried about him as a slasher and right-hand driver. No right-hand drives! Closeout short to him on the perimeter. You can hop underneath the ballscreens and handoffs. You want to stay between him and the basket. Very good and active cutter. Don’t let him cut your face or get back cut. They will throw it ahead to him in transition for him to drive it right. Get over and cut him off. You can help off of him when he doesn’t have it and then close out short. Have to see both though when you are helping so he doesn’t cut to the rim. No right-hand drives. No layups.

#13 Jalen Washington: 6’10” 230 lbs, Sophomore Forward

4.7 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 0.1 apg

Backup forward. More of a face-up big man. Capable shooter from 3-point range. Will pick-and-pop. You need to be there on the catch to give a hard contest when he is on the perimeter. In the post, he will face up and likes to shoot the face-up jump shot. Get into his body, pressure him, and contest it. He doesn’t want the game to be physical. Right hand, left shoulder with his back to the basket. Be physical and get him off of the block and then be ready to contest the face-up jumper. Very good offensive rebounder. Box him out. No uncontested jump shots.

#24 Jae’lyn Withers: 6’9″ 215 lbs, Graduate Student Forward

3.2 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 0.6 apg

Strong, athletic, backup forward. Capable catch-and-shoot threat, but more aggressive as a right-hand driver. No right-hand drives! He likes to catch the ball in the mid-post area, face-up, and then drive it right. Be ready for him to be physical and drive it right into your chest. Stay down, wall up, and make him score over you. Be there on the perimeter to get a hand up if he shoots the 3. Right hand, left shoulder in the post. Be physical and get him off of the block. He would rather face up and drive it right than make a real post move. A little loose with the ball. If he is driving it right from the perimeter you can come take it off of him. Not really thinking about passing. Box him out when the shot goes up. No right-hand drives!

#8 Paxson Wojcik: 6’5″ 195 lbs, Graduate Student Guard

2.7 ppg, 0.9 rpg, 0.7 apg

Backup guard. Shooter! No catch-and-shoot 3s! You need to be tight to him on the perimeter to take away the catch-and-shoot 3s. Not as aggressive as some of the other shooters, but that is what he is in there to do. Get OVER the ballscreens and handoffs. CHASE off of downscreens and get OVER the flares. SWITCH if there is too much space out on the perimeter. When you switch you are switching OUT aggressively to take him away from 3. Tighten up to him as the ball is driven towards you. Once you take away the initial catch-and-shoot 3 he is going to look to drive it right. We would rather make him finish 2s than get an open look from 3. Pressure him on the perimeter. No 3s!

North Carolina Tar Heels Offense

The 2022-2023 North Carolina Tar Heels were a major disappointment. Ranked preseason #1 after a surprise run to the national championship game the prior year expectations couldn’t have been higher. However, horrendous three-point shooting led to the Tar Heels missing the NCAA Tournament altogether. UNC finished the year 322nd shooting 31.2% from deep. Now, this season, those issues seem to be solved. Cormac Ryan and Harrison Ingram replaced Caleb Love and now the team is 35.9% from three-point range. Overall, they still run a lot of Carolina Secondary offense and will pound the ball inside to Armando Bacot in the half court. Getting to the free-throw line is a big part of their offensive success as well.

In traditional North Carolina Tar Heels fashion this group will run a lot of offense from secondary lineup. That is true off of a make-or-miss. Here they go to this “loop” action where they reverse the ball through the trail spot and set a cross screen for #5 Bacot to follow the ball. If you are going to double like Zeigler did here then you can’t completely whiff and take yourself out of position. You either need to get the steal or foul trying. When Bacot is able to shoot his right hand, left shoulder hook shot with two feet in the paint his percentages are significantly higher.

The Tar Heels begin a lot of possessions with this type of zoom action on the wing. UConn did a good job of switching it here as #3 Ryan came off of #2 Cadeau’s downscreen. We always want to switch that sort of guard-on-guard action. What is difficult in this clip is containing #55 Ingram. He is so physical off of the dribble and has the skill to score with his back to the basket consistently when he turns his drive into a post move. You have to be ready for him to come back to his left shoulder to finish with his right hand. This is pretty good defense, but you just have to be ready to be even more physical.

Here is another look at some of Carolina’s secondary offense. They get into their zoom action on the wing and then downscreen behind the handoff for #4 Davis. Then, #5 Bacot flips and sets a downhill ballscreen for Davis. We want to CHASE him off of downscreens and get OVER the ballscreens. UConn does both here, but Davis still makes the pull-up 3. Sometimes good offense beats good defense. Unless you are going to switch the downhill ballscreen you will need to live with him making this shot.

One of the North Carolina Tar Heels’ favorite halfcourt sets involves this diagonal backscreen from a Horns alignment. Anytime #5 Bacot steps out beyond the 3-point line to get a catch it should trigger in your mind that a backscreen is coming. After the initial screen-the-screener, they are back into their 4-around-1 Motion. When #55 Harrison has the ball the defender guarding #4 Davis is simply too far from his man. You can help off of #2 Cadeau, but you have to be tighter to Davis and #3 Ryan. Also, you don’t need to close out to Cadeau. The Tennessee defender should have immediately tightened up to #4 Davis instead of stunting at Cadeau. These personnel-specific decisions will be crucial on Saturday evening.

After running their diagonal backscreen action Coach Hubert Davis will go to this as a counter. Instead of reversing the ball the Tar Heels will bring it back to the same side for #5 Bacot to post up there. You have to be ready to be physical when he gets a catch on the block. He simply buries the Tennessee defender in this clip. Do your work early and get him off of the block.

Ballscreen defense is all about making tough decisions and the North Carolina Tar Heels have the players to make those decisions even more difficult. When guarding #2 Cadeau on the perimeter you need to go UNDER the ballscreens. That alone will help keep us between them and the basket without needing to help as much. However, when you get into this situation, you want to err on the side of recovering to #5 Bacot. Stay on Cadeau’s hip as he drives it and make him finish the contested runner. We would rather make him finish than give up the easy layup to Bacot on the roll.

North Carolina Tar Heels Defense

Coach Hubert Davis and the North Carolina Tar Heels will deploy an exclusively man-to-man defense on Saturday evening. However, what they will do to mix it up, is extend some fullcourt pressure. They have shown some fullcourt man-to-man where they trap the first pass as well as some diamond press. Despite extending some pressure this Tar Heels defense hasn’t been able to force many turnovers. They also give up a lot of 3-point attempts which could play into Kentucky’s favor. Where North Carolina has been able to sneak into the Top 50 of KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency is simply by limiting possessions. They are excellent on the glass, switch 1-4 to stay in front of the ball, and force long halfcourt possessions.

Keys to the Game

No 3s for #4 Davis, #3 Ryan, or #55 Ingram. We must be disciplined, communicate, and concentrate when guarding these guys. Tighten up as the ball is driven towards you. Don’t help off of them. Limit these three to five combined 3’s or less.
Contain #5 Bacot. Make it hard on him to get a catch. Stay lower than him on the roll and recover aggressively. Don’t get beat on the rim run. Make him catch the ball off of the block and then wall up to make him score over you. No left-shoulder baskets with two feet in the paint.
Rebound the basketball. The North Carolina Tar Heels have a major advantage on paper when it comes to rebounding. We need to play that at least to a draw. End possessions with a defensive rebound. Need to be 75% on the defensive glass.
Shoot 75% or better from the free throw line.