Scouting Report: Ole Miss Rebels

We are officially in the danger zone as it pertains to the Kentucky Wildcats’ season. Uncharted territory has been reached as the Cats have lost three straight games at Rupp Arena for the first time ever. An optimist would say that Tuesday’s matchup with the Ole Miss Rebels offers a chance to break the ugly streak and get back on the right track. However, a pessimist would argue that Kentucky could very realistically see its home losing streak extended to four games. At this point, the Cats’ NCAA Tournament resume can ill afford another home loss. It seems wild that we are even having to discuss the NCAA Tournament resume, but that is the position Kentucky has put itself in over the last three weeks.

There is no time to dwell in the past this time of year. Life comes at you fast in the Southeastern Conference. There is little time to celebrate wins and there certainly isn’t time to sulk after losses. Kentucky must pick themselves up and face a Rebels team that is coming off of back-to-back losses. Overall, Coach Chris Beard’s first team in Oxford is 18-5 while their SEC record sits at 5-5. They were a perfect 13-0 in non-conference play but have been up and down within the league. Ole Miss is very talented offensively and has been one of the most accurate three-point shooting teams in college basketball this season. However, their adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom, is actually below Kentucky’s. We could be in for yet another high-scoring affair at Rupp Arena on Tuesday night.

As always, we have prepared a full, in-depth scouting report for Kentucky’s next opponent. We will take a deep dive into the Rebels’ personnel, break down their offensive and defensive schemes, and highlight the keys to the game for the Cats. Let’s dive in and get to know more about the Ole Miss Rebels.

Ole Miss Rebels Personnel

Starters

#5 Jaylen Murray: 5’11” 170 lbs, Junior Point Guard
14.3 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 4.0 apg

Dynamic playmaker. Primary ball handler. Very quick and shifty with the ball. Aggressive. SHOOTER!!! NO 3s!!! Half of his shots have been 3s and shooting 42.5% from 3. Not shooting a much higher percentage from 3 than he is from 2. You have to pick him up out beyond the arc and break his rhythm on the perimeter. Don’t let him comfortably dribble into a rhythm 3. Get OVER the ballscreens and handoffs. CHASE him off of downscreens and get OVER the flares. We should look to hard hedge the ballscreens to get him moving away from the basket. He is a better passer than finisher when driving it to the basket. We want to make him finish 2s. Do not over help when he drives it. Tighten up to your man and make him finish. Be TIGHT to him on the perimeter. No 3s!!!

#11 Matthew Murrell: 6’4″ 200 lbs, Senior Guard
16.8 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 2.5 apg

Very talented scorer. SHOOTER!!! NO 3’s!!! Shooting 39.4% on over two made 3s per game. You have to pick him up out beyond the arc and break his rhythm on the perimeter. Be tight to him at all times. Absolutely no help off of him. Tighten up to him as the ball is driven towards you. Get OVER the ballscreens and handoffs. CHASE him off of downscreens and get OVER the flares. We should look to hard hedge the ballscreens to get him moving away from the basket. Otherwise, be willing to switch to keep a guy on a guy. Get all the way out to him and take away the 3 if you switch. Make him drive it. He wants to shoot jump shots. Contest everything both beyond the arc and in the midrange. Loves to curl into a jump shot. Stay tight and contest. No 3s!!!

#7 Allen Flanigan: 6’6″ 215 lbs, Senior Guard
15.7 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 3.0 apg

Left-handed. Physical, skilled wing. Much more dangerous as a left hand driver than he is as a shooter. Just 12-40 from 3 this season. NO LEFT HAND DRIVES!!! You need to be there to contest the obvious catch-and-shoot 3’s, but then bounce back and guard against the left hand drives. We want to stay between him and the basket and be in a position to contest everything. Good mid-range jump shooter. Likes to curl into a jump shot. Be there to give a hard contest to all of his mid-range jump shots. You can go UNDER the ballscreens and handoffs. Look to go UP THROUGH the downscreens so he can’t curl into a jump shot or left hand drive. Physical driver. Will initiate contact and look to spin or step through to finish with his left. Stay down, wall up, and make him score over you. Contest everything. No left hand drives!

#4 Jaemyn Brakefield: 6’8″ 220 lbs, Senior Forward
11.7 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 2.4 apg

Left-handed. Versatile, face-up 4-man. Capable shooter. Making over one per game at 36.8%. Will pick-and-pop out on the perimeter. You need to closeout to him aggressively enough on the pick-and-pop to take away the obvious catch-and-shoot 3s. He is most comfortable facing up and operating off of the block. You have to be tight enough to him when he faces up off of the block to take away the face-up jump shots. After you take away the face-up jump shot he is going to look to drive it left. No left hand drives! If he goes right he is just setting you up to spin back left. Left hand, right shoulder in the post. You need to be physical on his right shoulder and make him score it back into over his left shoulder. Very good offensive rebounder. Box out! Contest face-up jump shots. No left hand drives.

#33 Moussa Cisse: 7’0″ 230 lbs, Senior Center
4.4 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 0.4 apg

Athletic 5-man. Just looking to score directly at the basket. Will ballscreen and roll to the rim. They will throw it up to him on the roll, but mostly just looking for lobs. We should look to hard hedge the ballscreens some and send the guards away from the basket. However, if we play drop coverage, you need to give ground and stay lower than him on the roll to take away the lob. Right hand, left shoulder in the post. Be physical and get him off of the block. His percentages will go down the further off of the block you make him catch it. Stay down, wall up, and make him score over you. Don’t help up off of him at the rim and give up a dunk. Very good offensive rebounder. Carve out space when the shot goes up. Be physical! No dunks for him.

Bench

#2 TJ Caldwell: 6’4″ 190 lbs, Sophomore Guard
5.8 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 1.0 apg

Backup guard. Capable shooter. Has made 18 3s in 23 games at a 39.1% clip. You need to be there to contest the obvious catch-and-shoot, but then bounce back and guard against the right hand drive. No right hand drives! He is more aggressive as a right hand driver than he is as a shooter. Just 40% from 2 compared to 39.1% from 3. We want to make him score contested 2s. He is looking to get all the way to the basket when driving it right and will shoot the pull-up going left. Contest the pull-up jump shots. Go OVER the ballscreens and handoffs. CHASE off of downscreens and get OVER the flares. Again, we are looking to make him score 2s. Will curl into a pull-up jump shot. Just stay tight and contest. No uncontested catch-and-shoot 3s. Tighten up to him as the ball is driven towards you.

#0 Brandon Murray: 6’5″ 210 lbs, Junior Guard
5.4 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 1.5 apg

Backup guard. Strong and athletic on the perimeter. He is shooting 8-19 from 3 in 14 games. Shooting the same percentage from 3 as he is from 2. You need to be there to take away the obvious catch-and-shoot 3s. After you take away the initial catch-and-shoot you need to bounce back and guard against the right hand drive. Play him as straight up as possible. Go OVER the ballscreens and handoffs. CHASE him off of downscreens and get OVER the flares. We ultimately want to make him score contested 2s. He is looking to get all the way to the basket when driving it right and will shoot the pull-up going left. Contest the pull-up jump shots. Good passer, don’t over help. Get your hands up and make him finish. No uncontested 3s. No right hand drives.

#3 Jamarion Sharp: 7’5″ 235 lbs, Senior Center
3.8 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 0.7 apg

Backup 5-man. Best shot blocker in college basketball. Offensively he is in there to ballscreen and roll to the rim. They will throw it to him on the roll, but mostly just looking for lobs. We should look to hard hedge the ballscreens and send the guards away from the basket. However, if we play drop coverage, you need to give ground and stay lower than him on the roll to take away the lob. Right hand, left shoulder in the post. Be physical and get him off of the block. His percentages will go down the further off of the block you make him catch it. Stay down, wall up, and make him score over you. Don’t help up off of him at the rim and give up a dunk. You have to carve out space and box him out when the shot goes up. No dunks for him!

#1 Austin Nunez: 6’2″ 170 lbs, Sophomore Guard
0.4 ppg, 0.4 rpg, 0.7 apg

Backup guard. Will handle it some when he is in there. Not looking to be aggressive offensively. He is just in there to facilitate and give the other guys a breather. 3-14 from the field and 2-6 from 3. Shot 20-53 from 3 as a freshman at Arizona State. You need to play him as straight up as possible. Be there to contest the initial catch-and-shoot. Then, bounce back and guard against the right hand drives. Contest all jump shots from beyond the arc and in the mid-range. Don’t get beat in a straight line to his right hand. He is a much better passer than he is a finisher. Do not over help when he drives it. Tighten up to your own man and make him finish 2’s. He is just 1-8 from 2 this year. No uncontested catch-and-shoot 3s. No straight-line right-hand drives.

Ole Miss Rebels Offense

Coach Chris Beard wasted no time upgrading the Ole Miss Rebels roster when he got the job. Now, six of their nine primary rotation players are from the transfer portal. That influx of talent has meshed well with veteran Matthew Murrell, Ole Miss’ leading scorer, who is in his fourth season in Oxford. Jaemyn Brakefield has been around for three seasons as well since transferring from Duke. Allen Flanigan (Auburn) and Jaylen Murray (Saint Peter’s) have been the most impactful additions, but Brandon Murray (Georgetown), Moussa Cisse (Oklahoma State), and Jamarion Sharp (Western Kentucky) have all played major roles as well.

The Rebels feature a talented, dynamic offensive attack that is successful in transition, sets a lot of ballscreens, and makes three-point shots at a 38.7% clip. That shooting from beyond the arc is a stark contrast to other recent Ole Miss teams. There is an overall skill level to Coach Beard’s backcourt that gives them a chance every time they step on the floor. Expect to guard a lot of 4-around-1 Motion with random ball screening. They get to a lot of off-ball action as well to shake loose their guards. You have to pay attention to your personnel-specific scouting instructions in order to effectively guard these guys. Most importantly, don’t let them get comfortable from the perimeter.

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The Ole Miss Rebels are not afraid to push the pace and have had success in transition this season. This is an example of helping too much off of #11 Murrell for no reason. He is too good of a shooter to really help off of at all, but you especially can’t do so for no reason. As #5 Murray attacks in transition here there is someone between him and the basket and a defender on his hip. Even if he finishes a floater or acrobatic layup here we would live with the result. However, we cannot live with giving up a 3 to Murrell here. Do not help off of him!

Out of all of our defensive issues, guarding the ballscreens is once again the biggest problem. Unfortunately, the Ole Miss Rebels are excellent at attacking in pick-and-roll situations scoring in the 90th percentile according to Synergy. Here you see them get into a staggered high ballscreen for #5 Murray. We want to chase over the top just as South Carolina did in this clip. However, you then need to stay between him and the basket. This is a good example of how dynamic he is with the ball in his hands. Ultimately we will live with him finishing 2s like this, but you can’t give him an And-1.

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We cannot let them dunk the ball on the rollover and over again. When it is an empty side ballscreen you have to do one of three things on the ballscreen. First, you can be more aggressive and hard hedge it to get the ball handler moving away from the rim. Secondly, you can play drop coverage and give ground staying lower than the roll man as you corral the ball hander. Lastly, you can always just switch it and keep a guy on a guy. Auburn was somewhat stuck in no man’s land between all three options on this possession and it led to an easy lob to #33 Cisse.

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This is a good example of Ole Miss’ half-court motion offense. You see some of their off-ball screening and how they are so good at getting to some downscreens, pin downs, and staggered double action to shake loose their guards on the perimeter. However, South Carolina covered up a lot of that and the Rebels eventually got to a high ballscreen. It would be great if we hard hedged a bit more and got their guards moving away from the basket. If we play drop coverage though, then you have to stay lower than the roll man. Against Gonzaga getting scored on at the rim via the roll man was a major problem. We have to show some growth on Tuesday night.

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First off, look at how hard Ole Miss attacks in transition. They have multiple guards who can get it and go. Then, after the initial penetration, they get into their half court motion. Coach Beard loves to get his guards into these sorts of Iverson-cut actions. In this clip you see them actually set a triple screen for #1 Nunez who cuts through. #0 Murray eventually gets it on the pop and 7’5″ Sharp sets the high ballscreen. If you are going to be this high on the ballscreen then you have to hedge it even harder to get their guards moving away from the basket. This is too easy of a pass to a player with this big of a catch radius. Either be more aggressive or drop deeper and stay lower than Sharp. South Carolina got caught in between the two coverages on this possession.

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Here is another look at an Iverson cut out of the corner into a ghost screen by #11 Murrell. We obviously want to chase him off of this sort of action, but if you run into the screen you need to aggressively switch the way South Carolina did in this clip. They were able to hold the Ole Miss Rebels to 4-10 shooting from deep due to their urgency getting out on the perimeter. However, you need to need closeout with your hands up when guarding someone like Murrell. He is too good of a shooter to have your hands down. For him, this is essentially an uncontested 3.

Ole Miss Rebels Defense

Coach Chris Beard’s teams are known for being excellent defensively. Between head coaching stops at Arkansas Little Rock, Texas Tech, and Texas his teams have never finished worse than 56th in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency. Since 2017-2018, his teams have never finished outside of the Top 20 defensively. However, that is going to change this season. The Ole Miss Rebels currently check in at 130th. For context, that is worse than Kentucky. They block 15.9% of opponents’ shots, which is fifth nationally, and do a good job of forcing turnovers as well, but the overall result is not good. A big reason for their lack of success is that they are one of the worst rebounding teams in college basketball. Opponents are getting 35.4% of their own misses against the Rebels.

Schematically, the Rebels will do a lot of switching defensively. Both on and off of the ball they will switch almost everything 1-4 and with #33 Cisse in they will even switch the ballscreens 1-5. Obviously, this strategy hasn’t really worked very well, but it does help them limit teams from three-point range a bit. They’ve simply forgone worrying about matchups in favor of trying to keep a guy on a guy. Then, at the rim, they either have 7’0″ Cisse or 7’5″ Sharp in there at all times to try and erase shot attempts at the rim.

Keys to the Game

• No 3s for #5 Murray or #11 Murrell. The Ole Miss Rebels have other capable shooters, but these are the two guys who can really go off and beat us. If you hold these two to four or fewer combined 3’s it’ll be hard for them to make enough to win.
• Dominate the glass. Ole Miss is one of the worst defensive rebounding teams in college basketball. That means we should get plenty of second chances. 77% or better on the defensive glass. 30% or better on the offensive glass.
• Finish at the rim. Similar to the Cats, the Rebels are excellent at blocking shots but not good at actually protecting the rim. We need to finish over 60% or more of our “at the rim” field goal attempts.
• Shoot 75% or better at the free throw line.