Scouting Report: Ole Miss Rebels

The Kentucky Wildcats had their four-game winning streak come to an end on Saturday with a 77-68 loss to the Kansas Jayhawks. However, the winning streak within the Southeastern Conference is still alive. That will be put to the test on Tuesday evening down in Oxford against the Ole Miss Rebels. While the ‘Cats continue to head in the right direction after a tough start to the season, the Rebels are trending the opposite way. They have lost nine of their last 10 games and enter with a 9-12 record overall, 1-7 in the SEC. The 1-7 mark has them tied for last down in the cellar of the league standings. Meanwhile, Kentucky is currently 14-7 overall and 5-3 in the conference.

Coach Kermit Davis is in his fifth season as the boss at Ole Miss and it just might be his last. Since winning 20 games and making the NCAA Tournament in year one, it has mostly gone downhill from there during his tenure. The Rebels finished 13th in the SEC last season and are likely to finish near the bottom again this year. Coach Davis won 332 games against just 188 losses during his 16-year tenure at Middle Tennessee. He is clearly a very good basketball coach, but it just hasn’t worked out down in Oxford and it very well may be time for a change if he can’t right the ship yet this season. Battling injury issues this season with his two most talented players, Daeshun Ruffin and Matthew Murrell, certainly hasn’t helped the cause either.

It is that time of the week again to emerge from the KSR Film Room where we have been breaking down the Rebels and getting you ready for Tuesday evening’s matchup. We have a full deep-dive into their personnel, a schematic breakdown of their offense and defense, and will outline the overall keys to the game. Let’s dive on in and get to know more about the Ole Miss Rebels.

Ole Miss Rebels Personnel

Starters

#1 Amaree Abram: 6’4″ 190 lbs, Freshman Guard

8.0 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 2.1 apg

Lefty. Very capable shooter. 34.4% on one make per game. More aggressive as a left-hand driver. No left hand drives! Need to be there to take away the catch-and-shoot threes, then bounce back to guard against the left hand drives. Not really looking to shoot 3’s behind the ballscreens or handoffs. He prefers to catch-and-shoot. Start by hopping under the ballscreens and handoffs. Get a hand up to contest if he does shoot behind. We will adjust if he makes a couple. More concerned with staying between him and the basket. Bring some help when he is driving it left and try to take it off of him. 45 assists, 43 turnovers. Don’t need to be as aggressive coming to help when he goes right. Just make him finish. Contest the pull-up jumpers. No catch-and-shoot 3’s. No left hand drives!

#5 James White: 6’5″ 190 lbs, Sophomore Guard

2.9 ppg, 1.8 rpg, 1.0 apg

Bigger wing. Non-shooter. 3-16 from 3. Closeout short to him on the perimeter. Back up and stay between him and the basket. Right hand driver! No right hand drives!!! There is no reason for your feet to be beyond the 3-point line when guarding him. Go under the ballscreens and handoffs. Not worried about him scoring it from the perimeter. Will use the shot fake on the perimeter to try and attack your closeout. Stay down on the fakes! We are not worried about him shooting it on the perimeter so there is no reason to bite on the fakes. Bounce back and stay between him and the basket. Pick and choose opportunities to come take it off of him. 5 assists, 18 turnovers. Not thinking about passing when he drives it right. Crashes the offensive glass hard. Box out! No right hand drives!

#3 Myles Burns: 6’6″ 210 lbs, Senior Forward

6.4 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 1.1 apg

Extremely gifted physically. Great size and athleticism on the wing. Non-shooter. 4-35 from 3. Closeout short to him on the perimeter. Back up and stay between him and the basket. Right hand driver! No right hand drives!!! There is no reason for your feet to be beyond the 3-point line when guarding him. Go under the ballscreens and handoffs. Not worried about him scoring it from the perimeter. Excellent slasher and cutter off of the ball. When you help off of him you have to be aware of him cutting to the basket. You can bring help and take it off of him when he drives it right. 24 assists, 27 turnovers. Be physical around the basket. Right hand, left shoulder. Stay down on shot fakes and pivots. Averages over 2 offensive rebounds a game. Box out! No dunks on right hand drives!

#4 Jaemyn Brakefield: 6’8″ 220 lbs, Junior Forward

9.3 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 1.2 apg

Lefty. Skilled forward. Very capable shooter. 39.6% from 3 on one make per game. Need to be there to take away the obvious catch-and-shoot threes. More aggressive as a left hand driver. No left hand drives! Once you take away the initial catch-and-shoot you need to bounce back and cut off the left hand drive. Loves to shot fake on the perimeter to attack your closeout and drive it left. Stay down on the fakes. Will shot fake and pivot around at the end of his drives as well to come back left to finish. Stay down, wall up, and be physical. Make him score over you inside. Left hand, right shoulder in the post. No drop steps. Will face-up to shoot the little jumper or drive it left. Contest all jumpers inside the 3-point line. No obvious catch-and-shoot 3’s. No layups or dunks off of left hand drives.

#00 Jayveous McKinnis: 6’7″ 225 lbs, Senior Forward

5.3 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 0.4 apg

Physical, athletic 5-man. Exclusively looking to score at the rim. Will ballscreen and roll hard looking for it at the rim. Have to give ground and stay lower than him on the roll to take away the lob. Right hand, left shoulder in the post. Be physical and get him off of the block. His percentages will go down the further off of the block you make him catch it. Take away the quick baseline drop step and then be physical on his left shoulder. Do not help up off of him at the rim and give up a dunk. Just make him score everything over you as you wall up. Excellent offensive rebounder. He is going to be physical when the shot goes up. Box out! Very bad free throw shooter. Foul if you are beat. No And-1s. No dunks for him.

Bench

#11 Matthew Murrell: 6’4″ 200 lbs, Junior Guard

14.9 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 2.5 apg

Has missed last two games due to injury. Listed as a game-time decision. Shooter! No threes!!! 129 of 243 shots have been 3’s. Just 29.5% from 3, but he really wants to squeeze them off. Shot 38.6% on similar volume last season. Need to be tight to him to take away the catch-and-shoot 3’s. Tighten up as the ball comes towards you. Get over the ballscreens and handoffs. Chase off downscreens and flares. Switch if there is space and get out to take away the 3’s. Wants to shoot jump shots. Need to give a hard contest to everything. Treating him like a great shooter despite his percentage. Will shot fake into a one or two dribble pull-up. We should be tight enough on our closeouts that you don’t need to bite on the fakes. More shots than points for him. No 3’s!

#24 Daeshun Ruffin: 5’9″ 160 lbs, Sophomore Point Guard

9.5 ppg, 1.1 rpg, 3.2 apg

Missed the first seven games of the season and did not travel with the team to the most recent game at Oklahoma State. Point Guard. Extremely aggressive with the ball in his hands. Will push it hard in transition and attack the basket off of the dribble. Very willing shooter, but just 12-40 from 3. More worried about staying between him and the basket. We will adjust if he makes a couple. Go under the ballscreens and handoffs. Stay inside of the 3-point line to stay between him and the basket and stay below the screening action. Switch if you get caught out too far. Do not over help when he drives it. Much better passer than he is a finisher. Get your hands up and make him score over you. Get the ball stopped in transition. No layups for him!

#2 TJ Caldwell: 6’4″ 190 lbs, Freshman Guard

5.1 ppg, 1.7 rpg, 1.6 apg

Athletic backup guard. He is primarily a jump shooter. 14-42 from 3-point range. Need to be there to take away the obvious catch-and-shoot threes. Once you take away the initial catch-and-shoot you need to bounce back and guard against the right hand drives. No right hand drives! He will be more aggressive driving to the rim going right and will hunt jumpers going left. Need to be ready to contest all jump shots. Not a very efficient scorer with you between him and the basket. Very good in transition. Will attack off of the throw ahead going right. Get back and protect the basket. Make him score over you. No right hand drives!

#33 Josh Mballa: 6’7″ 220 lbs, Senior Forward

3.4 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 0.3 apg

Very strong and physical backup forward. Right hand, left shoulder around the basket. Need to be physical and get him off of the block. His percentages will go down the further off of the block you make him catch it. He will face you up some to either shoot the little jumper or use his athleticism and strength to drive it right. No right hand drives. Likes to spin back to his right hand to try and finish around you. Plays extremely hard around the basket. Will be physical when the shot goes up. Box out! Take away his left shoulder in the post and his shot right hand drives.

#21 Robert Allen: 6’8″ 230 lbs, Senior Forward

3.3 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 0.6 apg

Lefty. Backup post player. Looking to score it around the basket. Will face-up and play out to the perimeter, but when he does he is looking to drive it left. 0-6 from 3. No left hand drives! Closeout short and stay between him and the basket. No reason to be out there where he can attack your closeout and drive it left. Left hand, right shoulder in the post. Have to be physical and make him score over you. No quick drop steps. Don’t let him turn the corner to his left hand and score around you. When he faces up he will drive it left. Have to cut him off. Don’t let him spin back left to finish. Will crash the offensive glass. Box out! No left hand, right shoulder baskets. No left hand drives!

#14 Tye Fagan: 6’3″ 198 lbs, Senior Guard

3.1 ppg, 1.1 rpg, 0.3 apg

Lefty. Very athletic and quick in a straight line. Aggressive in transition. Will push the ball hard when he has it or run the sidelines look for it on the throw ahead. No left hand drives!!! Have to get over and cut off the left hand drives. Need to stay between him and the basket. Capable catch-and-shoot threat. Over half of his shots have been threes. 10-30 on the season. Be there to contest the catch-and-shoot 3’s. Bounce back after you take away the initial catch-and-shoot and be ready to guard the left hand drives. You can hop under the ballscreens and handoffs. The ones behind the ballscreen aren’t the threes he is going to shoot. Bring some help when he is driving it left. No left hand drives. No layups for him!

#10 Theo Akwuba: 6’11” 225 lbs, Senior Forward

2.9 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 0.2 apg

Backup 5-man. Very strong and physical. Exclusively looking to score at the rim. Will ballscreen and roll hard to the basket. Need to stay lower than him on the roll so as not to give up a lob or easy dunk off of the pocket pass. Make him score with you between him and the basket. Right hand, left shoulder in the post. Be physical and get him off of the block. His percentages will go down the further off of the block you make him catch it. No quick drop steps. Be physical on his left shoulder and wall up. Will be physical when the shot goes up. Box out! No dunks for him.

Ole Miss Rebels Offense

Coach Kermit Davis’ group has really struggled on the offensive end of the floor this season. Their problems have been exacerbated recently with their two most talented players, Matthew Murrell and Daeshun Ruffin, missing time. The Ole Miss Rebels are averaging just 63.8 points per game in SEC play and have failed to break 60 in half of their league games. They rank near the bottom of the country, 328th to exact, in three-point shooting at 30.2%. That three-point shooting mark has been even worse in SEC games at just 29.1%. Unfortunately, they aren’t that great from two-point range either due to being vastly undersized around the basket. In terms of scheme, Ole Miss sets a lot of ballscreens and do have some success in transition. However, those two areas aren’t as effective without Murrell and Ruffin.

Per Synergy, the Rebels rely heavily on offensive rebounding as well to generate offense. They score 1.142 points per possession on put backs with a little over six opportunities per game. If we can keep them off the offensive glass it will make it even harder for them to score. Their 34.2% offensive rebounding percentage, per KenPom, is 32nd in the country. We must reach our goal of 77% or better on the defensive glass.

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The Ole Miss Rebels have success in transition but really struggle in the half court. To the extent that they have a strength it will be their zoom action and ballscreens. Guarding those type of actions were obviously a struggle for Kentucky on Saturday against Kansas. This game will be an opportunity to show improvement in that area. We really don’t need to be out there chasing #1 Abram off of the staggered double. If you do get caught chasing it will probably be necessary to switch the final handoff. Have to be ready for them to throw the lob. Go under the ballscreens and handoffs to keep from having to help at the point of the screen.

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Urgency, communication, and concentration on personnel-specific detail have not been a strength of ours on the defensive end. #4 Brakefield is a nearly 40% three-point shooter. He is strictly a catch-and-shoot guy who will look to pick-and-pop some on the perimeter. His volume isn’t super high, only making one a game, so he is only going to shoot the wide-open ones. There was no reason for Arkansas to get hung up on this ballscreen. If they were supposed to switch, there was no screen set so there is no switch. If switching wasn’t the game plan then #15 helped WAY too much unnecessarily instead of recovering to the pick-and-pop threat. We cannot give up wide-open shots like this because of a lack of concentration.

Ole Miss Rebels Defense

The Ole Miss Rebels have some very good individual defenders who have allowed them to put together a Top 100 defense this season. Since SEC play began it has been a feast or famine story for the Rebels’ defense. However, even when they do a good job on that end, their offense has been so bad that they still struggle to win. Ole Miss has allowed over 80 points in four of their last nine games, but has held the other five below 70 points.

When they really struggle defensively it has been because of either giving up a lot of three-pointers or letting their opponent get to the free throw line too much. Alabama scored 84 points by shooting 9-20 from deep and 17-25 from the free throw line. Auburn got to the free throw line and shot 18-22 on their way to 82 points. Missouri went off for 16 three-pointers on 30 attempts to put up 89 points. Finally, Oklahoma State scored 82 points with the help of going 22-25 from the free throw line.

Ole Miss does mix in a good amount of 2-3 Zone defense. 11.3% of their defensive possession have been zone according to Synergy. However, they are much more successful in their man-to-man defense. They allow just 0.827 points per possession in man-to-man, but 1.012 points per possession when playing zone.

Keys to the Game

• Transition defense. The Ole Miss Rebels’ most efficient offense comes in transition. We must protect the basket, stop the ball, and matchup beginning with the next most dangerous guy. Hold them to 12 or fewer transition points.
• Ballscreen defense. We got exploited once again via the ballscreen by Kansas. Ole Miss sets a lot of them and we must be better. Stay between them and the basket. Should be able to go under all of the ballscreens. Otherwise be willing to switch. Allow 10 or fewer points directly off of the ballscreen.
• Dominate the glass. They rely heavily on offensive rebounding and are 32nd nationally recovering 34.2% of their own misses. We have to be 77% or better on the defensive glass.
• Shoot 75% or better from the free throw line.