Scouting Report: Tennessee Volunteers
Kentucky got last week off with a chance to heal up and get ready for the stretch run of the 2022 season. However, the Wildcats are not going to have to wait long to play in another big game on a huge stage.
Mark Stoops is bringing his Kentucky football program to Neyland Stadium this weekend to face the hottest offense in college football. Tennessee is having a dream season with a huge matchup against Georgia looming next week, but first, the Vols must play another home game, and they are bringing out some alternate uniforms for the big stage.
ESPN is sending their top broadcasting team to Knoxville as this matchup between heated rivals will get big-game treatment. Kentucky has a chance to issue a statement as a program on Saturday night.
But first, we must dig into what is making Josh Heupel’s second team on Rocky Top so effective. KSR’s scouting report is here as we dive deep into the Vols.
Nuts and Bolts
After defeating Kentucky on Senior Day in 2008, head coach Phillip Fulmer was carried off the field in what was his final game as the head coach at Tennessee. One year after winning an SEC East title, Fulmer was dismissed as this program was not competing for championships and had a long losing streak against Florida.
The next year, Nick Saban’s Alabama dynasty won its first national championship and is still running. Entering 2022, the Vols had only beaten Florida once in the last 17 meetings. This program hadn’t beaten Alabama since 2006. Tennessee has not had a double-digit win season since 2007 and has only produced a pair of top-25 finishes in the last 15 years. Over the last five seasons, UT had the third worst overall record (27-33) in the SEC.
That has all changed in year two under Josh Heupel as the Vols are 7-0 (3-0) with wins over Alabama, Florida, and LSU. Tennessee is well on its way to a double-digit win season and is playing for a spot in the College Football Playoff in the last five games.
Things can change quickly in college football.
Heupel has brought his version of the Art Briles spread offense to Knoxville and has teamed up with a potential Heisman Trophy winner. That is leading to some instant success for the Tennessee football program as the Vols are nationally relevant in the last week of October for the first time in quite a while.
Saturday will be the 118th meeting between these two SEC programs with Tennessee owning a commanding 82-26-9 series lead. The Vols, of course, won 26 consecutive games in this series from 1985-2010. Kentucky is just 2-8 against Tennessee since snapping the streak in 2011 despite having finished higher in the SEC standings quite a few times. Last time in Neyland Stadium, the Cats snapped a 17-game losing streak in Knoxville with a dominant defensive performance in a 34-7 blowout victory.
Out in the desert, Tennessee is a 12-point favorite with a total of 62. That’s a projected final score of 37-25. The Vols are 6-1 against the spread (ATS) this season, and the Cats are 5-2 ATS. The under is 6-1 in Kentucky games while the over is 5-2 in Tennessee games. Since mid-2019, UK is 11-2-1 ATS as a dog with seven outright wins. The road team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven games in this series with three consecutive outright wins, but the Vols are 23-7 ATS in the last 30 meetings of this rivalry.
Tennessee offense
After putting together a top-10 offense in year one under Josh Heupel, the Vols have leveled up in 2022. Tennessee is playing at a crazy pace with a quarterback that is in full control. The data tells us that Ohio State and Tennessee are battling for the No. 1 offense in college football this season.
- Scoring: 50.1 (No. 1 overall)
- Success Rate (from CFB Graphs): 52.1% (No. 5 overall)
- Yards Per Play: 7.5 (No. 2 overall)
- Yards Per Rush: 4.6 (No. 50 overall)
- Yards Per Attempt: 11.4 (No. 1 overall)
- 3rd/4th Down Conversions: 55.8% (No. 9 overall)
- Red Zone TD Rate: 82% (No. 4 overall)
- Points Per Drive: 4.14 (No. 3 overall)
The Vols have no weaknesses and are very good in just about every metric. It all starts with former Virginia Tech transfer Hendon Hooker (6-4, 218, Super) at quarterback.
The Greensboro (N.C.) Dudley product leads college football in yards per attempt (10.8) and 30-plus yard completions (20). Hooker is doing it all while completing 70.6 percent of his 27.7 throws per game with an average depth of target (11.9). That means the Vols are taking a lot of vertical swings, and their quarterback is connecting on most of them.
The veteran has been extremely efficient (55.4% passing success rate), has added a real run element (350 non-sack rushing yards on 6.6 yards per rush with a 54.7% success rate), doesn’t take many sacks, and simply never throws the ball into harm’s way with only 11 career interceptions on 999 throws. Hooker is playing at an extremely high level accounting for 21 total touchdowns, and is getting strong Heisman Trophy buzz for a reason.
No other quarterback under Heupel has reached the level Hooker is currently. That’s the No. 1 reason why the Vols have turned into a juggernaut. But it helps to have some weapons on the perimeter.
Cedric Tillman (6-3, 215, RSr.) entered the year as one of the top returning receivers in the SEC after recording 64 receptions for 1,081 yards last season. The former low three-star recruit out of Las Vegas (Nev.) Bishop Gorman got a lot of work early in the year with 17 receptions on 28 targets in the first three games, but the big-play wideout has missed the last four games with an ankle injury, and his status is unknown for Saturday. A former top-200 recruit has stepped up big time to fill the void.
Jalin Hyatt (6-0, 185, Jr.) leads the Vols in targets (52), receptions (40), receiving yards (769), and receiving touchdowns (12). Playing as this offense’s primary slot receiver, Hyatt often gets matched up with safeties in space and has consistently been able to get behind defenses and make vertical splash plays. The Irmo (S.C.) Dutch Fork product leads college football in 40-plus yard receptions (8) as he has become the best deep threat in college football.
But Hyatt isn’t the only receiver making plays.
Tennessee added USC transfer Bru McCoy (6-3, 220, RJr.) to the roster in the offseason, and the former five-star prospect leads the wide receiver room in snaps (447). The outside receiver has 24 receptions on 35 targets and is averaging 16.5 yards per reception. The Tillman injury has opened up a role for Ramel Keyton (6-3, 195, Sr.), and the veteran has responded with 17.8 yards per reception on 20 grabs as the former top-100 recruit has the highest depth of target (16.7) on the team.
Tennessee doesn’t really mess around with intermediate passing. The Vols want to go deep early and often. Hooker is making good decisions and is delivering the ball with accuracy on tough throws to a talented wideout group. The passing game is what makes this offense so dangerous, but the rushing attack sets the table.
Heupel’s offense ranks No. 29 nationally in run play percentage (56.9%) as in many ways this can be a run-first approach. Two halfbacks are leading the way.
Jabari Small (5-11, 213, Jr.) is again RB1 for the Vols leading the offense in carries (89) and rushing touchdowns (8). However, there is a true platoon with Jaylen Wright (5-11, 205, So.) who leads the team in rushing yards (405). However, each back is averaging under five yards per rush as creating chunk plays (17 rushes of 10-plus yards in 176 attempts) has been a problem. However, this offense is relying on the traditional ground game for efficiency and that’s what this duo is providing.
Wright is a player to keep an eye on as the young tailback already has three fumbles this season. Hooker is the most dangerous rusher on the team as the Vols needed some big QB runs against Pittsburgh, Florida, and Alabama to help extend drives.
One of the biggest pros to this spread scheme being used in Knoxville is that it can take some pressure off the offensive line. In the run game, the front five is asked to play downhill with inside zone and gap schemes, but this group does need to hold up in protections for vertical shots to be taken.
So far, the offensive line has been solid.
Former five-star recruit Darnell Wright (6-6, 335, Sr.) has made the move to right tackle this season and is playing at an All-SEC level. At center, Cooper Mays (6-3, 296, Jr.) has been rock-solid. When pass protection problems have come it’s usually been with the guards. However, both Jerome Carvin (6-5, 321, Super) and Javontez Spraggins (6-3, 325, Jr.) have played a lot of football. Both Florida transfer Gerald Mincey (6-6, 337, RSo.) and junior college transfer Jeremiah Crawford (6-5, 315, Sr.) have seen time at left tackle. A case could be made that spot is the weakest of this group.
But overall, this line has good size and is doing a solid job in pass protection. But it helps that Hooker does a great job of avoiding the rush with off-script movement.
Jalin Hyatt is on his way to All-American honors, and Cedric Tillman also has that potential. But Hendon Hooker is the engine that is driving this offense. The Vols are getting high-level QB play as their super senior quarterback is consistently hitting on big plays through the air and providing needed off-script playmaking with his legs in critical situations.
The Heisman Trophy buzz is warranted.
Tennessee defense
Defensive coordinator Tim Banks is back for year two at Tennessee, and the blueprint has remained the same. The Vols want to get downhill to stop the run and create negative plays, but that can leave their coverage unit in tough situations.
Tennessee is good at stopping the run and forcing scoring opportunity stops but somewhat blah everywhere else.
- Scoring: 23.1 (T-49 overall)
- Success Rate: 39.7% (No. 61 overall)
- Yards Per Play: 5.4 (T-59 overall)
- Yards Per Rush: 2.9 (No. 8 overall)
- Yards Per Attempt: 7.2 (T-66 overall)
- 3rd/4th Down Conversion Rate: 41.7% (No. 59 overall)
- Red Zone Touchdown Rate: 46.7% (No. 16 overall)
- Points Per Drive: 2.18 (No. 62 overall)
Everything with this defense starts with the front as the Vols want to get aggressive and force the issue. Tennessee has great size on their four-down front and that is leading to success in the run game.
Omari Thomas (6-4, 320, Jr.) is the best player of the group as the former top-100 recruit out of Memphis (Tenn.) Briarcrest Christian leads the defensive line in snaps (265) and is constantly flashing on tape from his defensive tackle position. Banks will use up to five players for the interior spots as the Vols have a healthy rotation.
At defensive end, Tyler Baron (6-5, 260, Jr.) holds down the fort, but LaTrell Bumphus (6-3, 290, Super) will see snaps when the Vols want to get big.
Moving over to the hybrid LEO position is where you will find the most dangerous player on the defense. Former junior college transfer Byron Young (6-3, 245, Sr.) is in year two on Rocky Top and was a preseason All-SEC selection after recording seven sacks in 2021. Young has upped his production this year leading the team in pressures (31) and sacks (3.5) as the top EDGE player on the defense. The South Carolina native has logged 12 QB hurries and has the potential to wreck a passing game thanks to a great motor. Tennessee will often use Young on stunts to try and confuse offensive lines. Kentucky’s protection schemes must have a plan for No. 6 at all times.
At the second level, both Mike and Will linebackers are extremely aggressive. The Vols will send their two backers on run blitzes on early downs and quite often use them as rushers on passing downs on both traditional blitzes and simulated pressures. Banks is getting solid production from this group, but this positional unit can be picked on in coverage.
At Mike, Aaron Beasley (6-1, 225, Sr.) is perhaps the team’s best pass rusher with a 25.5 percent pressure rate to go along with 39 tackles and four non-sack tackles for loss. At Will, Jeremy Banks (6-1, 224, RSr.) has returned after recording 128 tackles last year, but the former top-500 recruit out of Greater Memphis has been much improved even though his production is down. Banks has produced seven QB hurries and 2.5 non-sack tackles while constantly flashing on tape. The veteran is a legit NFL prospect but has had some struggles in coverage.
If Tennessee is allowed to play downhill at off-ball linebacker their front can be a lot to deal with. However, if they are forced to cover, there will be openings available.
Where this defense has had most of its issues is in the secondary. The Vols quite often play with five defensive backs but lost top cornerback Warren Burrell for the season in Week 2 while CB2 Kamal Hadden (6-1, 190, RJr.) has missed the last two games with a hamstring injury, and his status is unknown for Saturday. Meanwhile, starting safety Jaylen McCollough (6-0, 205, Sr.) has missed the last two games due to an aggravated assault arrest but could be back on Saturday night.
That is leaving a secondary in a scheme that likes to play man coverage stretched thin. Every Power Five starting QB faced has found success against this secondary as Tennessee’s defense ranks No. 91 in passing success rate and No. 114 in passing EPA.
Christian Charles (6-1, 186, So.) has stepped into a starting spot since the Burrell injury and has had some struggles. The former top-500 recruit out of Gainesville (Ga.) Chestatee has allowed 15 receptions on 22 targets for 227 yards over the last three games. If Hadden cannot go again, De’Shawn Rucker (6-0, 190, So.) will get his third start at cornerback. The Tallahassee (Fla.) Godby product gave up big completions to both Alabama and UT-Martin.
The Vols are getting good play at nickel as Tamarion McDonald (6-2, 200, Jr.) and Georgia Tech transfer Wesley Walker (6-1, 204, RJr.) are platooning, and Trevon Flowers (6-0, 205, Super) is quality safety. However, the defense is in a rough spot if Hadden (4 passes defended) cannot go as the backups have struggled to come up with ball production.
Tennessee sells out to stop the run, but that leaves this defense vulnerable in the back end. The defense has played over 70 snaps in each game this season as fatigue will be a worry down the stretch. Tim Banks is utilizing more players this season, but we saw this unit fall apart last year in its last five games against Power Five foes allowing 40.8 points per game and 6.3 yards per play over their final five games.
The Vols are now entering that window. Do we see the defense start a downslide again?
Tennessee special teams
In the kicking game, Tennessee has been nothing special but that’s been just fine.
At placekicker, former USC transfer Chase McGrath is back for year two on Rocky Top, and the super senior is 22 of 29 (75.9%) on field goal attempts at Tennessee and has only missed one extra point. All of McGrath’s misses this season have come from 40-plus yards out.
At punter, Paxton Brooks is averaging just 31.1 net yards per attempt with only three punts down inside the 20. However, Tennessee has only had to call on him 14 times this season. An advantage can be gained when Tennessee’s punt team is on the field, but it’s very hard to get them on the field.
Dee Williams (5-11, 190, Jr.) has emerged as a real weapon as a punt returner. The junior college transfer is averaging 19.8 yards on six returns and ripped off a huge 58-yard return against LSU. Kentucky’s punt coverage team must keep Williams contained. Kickoff returns have been pedestrian for the Vols, but coverage has been solid on both kickoffs and punts.
The Vols have some weaknesses, but McGrath is solid, and Williams is a field position weapon. Throughout the season, Tennessee has won the field position battle and that has helped both the offense and defense.
Keys to Victory
— Speaking of field position, the Vols rank inside the top 10 nationally in field position. In the big wins over Alabama and LSU, special teams plays created some early short fields for the Tennessee offense as the Vols were able to jump out to big first-quarter leads. That was not the case against Pittsburgh and Florida. Kentucky cannot afford to give Tennessee short fields at any point, but it’s really important to make this offense earn their points. In last season’s meeting, the Vols scored 24 points on three possessions that started at their own 48, UK 49, and UK 47. Kentucky cannot give this offense short fields.
— Speaking of Tennessee’s offense, there is no way to truly simulate what the Vols do until you face them on the field. That means an early haymaker is coming from this offense, and there’s no real way to avoid that. For Kentucky, it’s imperative to not give up a bomb early to make Tennessee burn through plays to earn touchdowns. If the Cats can do that, they can then see everything Josh Heupel wants to do and then just settle in and play football. Kentucky cannot afford another start like last year where the Vols had 14 points in four total plays.
— On paper, the biggest weakness this Tennessee team has is slowing down the throw game. Every Power Five quarterback has posted good numbers against the Vols. Will Levis has a chance to have his best game of the season. Kentucky needs good protection so their QB1 can slice and dice an iffy secondary.
— Creating multiple stops against this Tennessee offense will be difficult. Kentucky will likely need to create some takeaways to get off the field. A big turnover could help flip a game that will likely have limited possessions. Hendon Hooker has 37 career fumbles and put the ball on the turf twice last year against Kentucky. A takeaway may have to come via fumble recovery.
— Kentucky is likely going to create scoring opportunities frequently on Saturday, but the Cats must finish when they get there. Tennessee has been excellent at creating stops when backed up. In what could be a limited possession game, every scoring chance will be magnified when the nation’s top offense is on the other sideline. The Cats need touchdowns but do not be afraid of taking three points early in the game just to get something on the board. Billy Napier did not do that, and that decision might have cost Florida a win in Neyland Stadium.
— Just keep hanging around. Tennessee is 3-0 in one-score games this year, but historically, Josh Heupel teams have not faired well when games are tight. The Vols have gone from the hunter to the hunted in just two weeks. There could be a lot of nervous energy if this is a one-possession game either way entering the fourth quarter. Kentucky is plus-18 during fourth quarters this season and will have a great shot to close out this game late with a bend but don’t break defense, downhill rushing from Chris Rodriguez Jr., and key passing from Will Levis.
— Jalin Hyatt has become a big play machine with five touchdown receptions of 40-plus yards over the last three games. Kentucky has had two weeks to scout and prepare for how Josh Heupel utilizes the junior receiver in the slot from the wide split formations. Hyatt’s grabs are coming against nickel or safety players in isolation. The Cats must figure out a plan to slow down the star receiver and make someone else on that offense beat them deep.
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