Scouting Report: Tennessee Volunteers

Kentucky firmly has its back against the wall following consecutive SEC losses to Georgia and Mississippi State. The Wildcats need a win to prevent a historic season from slipping through their fingers.

The Wildcats will get a chance to break this losing streak against a heated rival.

Josh Heupel’s first Tennessee team is off to a surprising 4-4 start and figures to be a legitimate challenge to Kentucky. Expect a physical, intense matchup on Saturday night at Kroger Field.

KSR’s Scouting Report is here to provide the lowdown on the Volunteers.

Nuts and Bolts

One year after leading Tennessee to 10 wins and an SEC East title in 2007, Phillip Fulmer was fired after serving 17 years as the head football coach for the Volunteers.

After one year of Lane Kiffin, Louisiana Tech head coach Derek Dooley was brought in. After a few years with Dooley, Cincinnati head coach Butch Jones was brought in. After a few years with Jones, Tennessee had a hiring fiasco that moved from Mississippi State’s Dan Mullen to Ohio State defensive coordinator Greg Schiano. After a hire of Schiano was spurned by fans, Tennessee bounced around to talk to NC State’s Dave Doeren and Washington State’s Mike Leach. Athletic director John Currie was fired before a hire could happen. Fulmer would be brought in to run the show as things went full circle on Rocky Top.

Fulmer hired Alabama defensive coordinator Jeremy Pruitt, and he was also gone after a few years. Incoming appear to be potential NCAA violations. To wrap it up, the Vols went 78-82 from 2008-20 with an ugly 36-70 record in SEC play. The proud program finished with nine losing seasons in that time with just two top 25 finishes.

There has been a lot of ugly football in Knoxville with a revolving door of coaches involved. Tennessee’s administration decided to make a stand and clean house. UT brought in outsider Danny White from UCF to run the athletic department and make a coaching change.

After another long coaching search, White appeared to settle after swinging and missing on high-profile candidates such as Penn State’s James Franklin and Clemson offensive coordinator Tony Elliott. Instead, White decided to reunite with Josh Heupel.

The former national championship quarterback at Oklahoma was the offensive coordinator at Missouri from 2016-17 and posted big numbers with quarterback Drew Lock when White hired him at UCF to replace Scott Frost. Heupel would win 28 games in three years in Orlando, but the Knights saw their record regress in each season under the 43-year-old.

The book is still out on Heupel, and it took him a very long time to hire a defensive coordinator after multiple candidates turned down the job. However, he has this Tennessee team playing above expectations for the time being, but major recruiting questions surround the Vols moving forward.

Saturday night will be the 117th meeting between the two rivals. Tennessee owns a commanding 81-26-9 series lead, but Mark Stoops and Kentucky have been able to win two of the last four. After losing 26 straight from 1985-2009, Kentucky has won three games more recently, but this remains a series where the Wildcats need to start winning more.

Out in the desert, the line is currently a pick ’em with a total of 57. That’s a projected final score of 28.5-28.5. The Wildcats are 6-2 against the spread (ATS), and Tennessee is 3-5. The underdog is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings with three consecutive victories in the series.

Tennessee offense

After nine years on the coaching staff at Oklahoma under Bob Stoops with the last four coming as offensive coordinator, Josh Heupel was relieved of his duties by his former college head coach following the 2014 season. The Sooners brought in Lincoln Riley, and Heupel would reset his career.

However, the former national championship quarterback quickly found his feet. Heupel adopted the “veer and shoot” scheme made popular by Art Briles at Baylor and landed the Missouri offensive coordinator job after one season at Utah State. From there, his offense would set a bunch of records in five years total at Mizzou and UCF. Tempo is the name of the game.

vroom vroom. pic.twitter.com/9ldnU6rrTS

— Tennessee Football (@Vol_Football) November 3, 2021

Those results have translated over in his first year as the head coach at Tennessee.

The Vols are both efficient and explosive in both the run and pass game. Tennessee is a run-first operation with a run play rate that ranks 19th nationally (59.89%). After Michigan transfer Joe Milton was super inefficient in two starts to begin the season, Virginia Tech transfer Hendon Hooker (No. 5) has taken over and turned into one of the SEC’s best quarterbacks.

The redshirt senior leads the Vols in rushing attempts (102) and has thrown 17 touchdowns with just two interceptions. Hooker is averaging over nine yards per attempt with a passing success rate of 52.69 percent on 167 throws and a rushing success rate of 47.44 percent on non-sack rushes. Hooker has 17 completions of 25-plus yards and five rushes of 20-plus yards. The original backup is giving Tennessee both efficiency and explosiveness while taking care of the football.

The Vols have yet to lose the turnover battle in a game that Hooker has started. The former four-star recruit out of North Carolina suffered a knee injury against Ole Miss and played through it against Alabama. The 218-pound quarterback has rushed the ball over 20 times in two games this season to go along with averaging over nine yards per attempt against each Power Five opponent. The Vols have the SEC’s third-best quarterback and a legit NFL Draft prospect behind center.

However, Heupel’s offense is at its best when the tailbacks can establish the run. Tennessee has used a committee approach this season, but this team is most dangerous when Tiyon Evans is toting the rock (No. 8).

The junior college transfer owns an impressive 60 percent success rate on 80 carries this season and leads the Vols in rushing yards (516) despite missing two games with an ankle injury. The 220-pound tailback has some big-play capability but stays ahead of the chains much better than any other Tennessee tailback. The Vols use multiple backs, but the junior from South Carolina is their most efficient player.

At wide receiver, another transfer is making a huge impact on this new offense. Velus Jones Jr. (No.1) is in his second season at Tennessee after four years at USC, and the sixth-year super senior is having a career year. Jones leads the Vols in receptions (31) and receiving success rate (62.5%). He’s putting together an All-SEC season. However, Cedric Tillman (No. 4) is Hooker’s top option with 44 targets this season and 10 receptions of 15-plus yards. The former low-three star recruit can go deep at any moment.

Whenever Tennessee really wants to go deep, the Vols look to JaVonta Payton (No. 3). Yet another transfer, the former junior college and Mississippi State wideout has four touchdown receptions of 25-plus yards and leads Tennessee in yards per catch (23.92).

Unlike other spread attacks, Heupel likes to get the tight ends involved. Albert Okwuegbunam was an All-SEC performer under the play-caller at Missouri in 2017, and that strategy is still alive in 2021. Jacob Warren (No. 87) and Princeton Fant (No. 88) have combined for 32 targets and have a 50 percent receiving success rate. Defenses can’t forget about the tight ends who Tennessee will sneak out when least expected.

On the offensive line, Tennessee has its weakest unit. The Vols have dealt with a bunch of injuries but should be healthy this week. Again, a transfer is the best player as former Georgia offensive tackle Cade Mays (No. 68) holds it down at right tackle. The interior is where Tennessee is the weakest and where some leaks can occur. Hendon Hooker has taken more sacks than any other quarterback Kentucky has faced this season and issues with pass protection have a lot to do with that.

The Vols have been very efficient all season, but there have been issues finishing drives despite great ball security. In 35 scoring opportunities, the Vols are scoring 4.40 points per trip which is very much the middle of the pack nationally.

Tennessee defense

Tennessee went down a winding road before hiring Josh Heupel. The head coach may have taken an even longer road to hire his first defensive coordinator at Tennessee.

A public search saw the Vols be turned down by Kansas City Chiefs assistant coach Matt House, Tampa Bay Buccaneers assistant Kacy Rodgers, and Ohio State linebackers coach Al Washington. Eventually, Heupel landed on Penn State co-defensive coordinator Tim Banks, and the administration had to open up the checkbooks.

So far, this hire is working out well.

The Vols utilize a 4-2-5 scheme where former outside linebackers are now playing a defensive end role. Banks utilizes multiple fronts and a heavy blitz rate to create negative plays. Coverage-wise, Tennessee will give opposing quarterbacks and play-callers multiple different looks.

Tennessee had major depth questions after the Vols saw seven former defensive starters enter the transfer portal. However, the lack of depth has not hurt. Rodney Garner could easily be a candidate for the Briles Award for the work the longtime SEC assistant has done with the defensive line.

At defensive tackle, Matthew Butler (No. 94) should be in the running for All-SEC honors as the senior has stuffed the stat sheet — 3.5 non-sack tackles for loss, six sacks/QB hurries, 26 total tackles. The 295-pounder is a handful inside and is the one player on the line Tennessee does not like to take out. On the edge, Ja’Quain Blakely (No. 48) is a typical gap-plugging defensive end that has shown some playmaking ability with 3.5 non-sack tackles for loss and 4.5 sacks/QB hurries. At the other defensive end spot, Tyler Baron (No. 9) platoons with three players but junior college transfer Byron Young (No. 6) is the most dangerous with 8.5 sacks/QB hurries in just 211 snaps this season.

The Vols play a lot of guys in their four-down front. Expect to see as many as 10 players rotating into the game on Saturday night as Banks and his defensive coaching staff try to keep their front fresh as much as possible.

At the second level, Tennessee does not have the depth luxury that the line of scrimmage has. Texas transfer Juwan Mitchell opened the season as a starter at Mike but was lost for the year after three games. The off-ball linebacker unit is the weakest group of the defense.

With that said, this group goes big-play hunting. Will linebacker Jeremy Banks (No. 33) leads the team in tackles (60) and sacks (4.5). The former tailback can deliver a blow during run support.

Mike linebacker Aaron Beasley (No. 24) has chipped in 48 tackles and three non-sack tackles for loss. However, this group has not been great with run fits and can get caught being too aggressive.

There is no denying that the secondary is the biggest strength of the unit. The Vols have three senior starters to go along with two juniors. The 4-2-5 system needs versatility from the secondary, and Banks is getting that from this group.

Alontae Taylor (No. 2) had some bulletin board material for the Kentucky team earlier this week, but the senior cornerback can back it up. The conversation could be had that the former top-150 recruit is the best player on this defense. Taylor is a senior and a potential All-SEC selection with 36 tackles and six interceptions/pass breakups.

At the Star position, super senior Theo Jackson (No. 26) acts as a hybrid nickel player that will often play in the box and help with run support. The Tennessee native has 49 tackles to go along with five non-sack tackles for loss and seven pass breakups. The former high three-star recruit is a disruptive force.

At safety, Trevon Flowers (No. 1) and Jaylen McCullough (No. 22) have combined to collect 49 total tackles and four interceptions. Tennessee will sneak each into the box at times to cause some disruption when needed. The Vols do not have much depth here as these two play nearly every snap.

At the end of the day, this defense wants to create negative plays. That is usually what offensive tempo head coaches prefer in their defense. The Vols are big-play hunting and lead the country in tackles for loss. However, when big plays are not found drives can be put together.

Add all that up with a defense that really struggles in situational football (third downs, red zone), and the chance to score points and get yards should be there when offenses stay ahead of the chains.

Tennessee special teams

The Vols are getting efficient offense and explosive plays from both units. In the third phase, this is a team that is also getting solid additions in multiple areas.

Paxton Brooks is averaging 44.5 yards per punt with 10 of 50-plus yards. A dozen punts have been downed inside the 20, and only three going for touchbacks. Meanwhile, opponents are putting up just seven yards on punt returns. Brooks’ punt inside the five against Ole Miss led to a safety.

USC transfer Chase McGrath is 8 of 10 on field goals and is perfect inside 40 yards. On kickoffs, Toby Wilson has a 31.11 percent touchback rate but foes are averaging 20.5 yards per return despite Missouri scoring on a kickoff return touchdown.

In the return game, Velus Jones Jr. is averaging over 13 yards per punt return and 23.9 yards on kickoff return. The super senior is a weapon in the return department.

Meanwhile, the Vols have blocked a pair of kicks. Tennessee has a high-level special teams unit.

Keys to Victory

• Start fast, start fast, start fast. Tennessee is outscoring foes by a score of 124-30 in first quarters. Against Missouri and South Carolina, the games were over after the Vols put 28 on the board in the first 15 minutes. However, Liam Coen’s opening script has been good all season, and the Wildcats have scored eight touchdowns in their first 16 possessions. Kentucky must start fast and survive the early wave Tennessee brings into every game.
• Tennessee has done a lot of good things on defense under new play-caller Tim Banks. The Vols lead the country in tackles for loss and are getting production from multiple areas. However, Kentucky is very good at avoiding non-sack tackles for loss on offense. The Wildcats matchup better with Banks’ 4-2-5 defense and should have success running the ball and staying ahead of the chains. Kentucky must be committed to the run and get it established.
• Speaking of the rushing attack, Tennessee has struggled to contain quarterback run this season. Scrambles have hurt the Vols along with some designed quarterback runs also being effective. Both Emory Jones and Matt Corral had big days on the ground. Saturday will be a game where Will Levis needs to tote the rock. The effective rusher could give the Vols some problems.
• Defensively, Kentucky’s top goal should be to stop the run. Doing that is something the Wildcats have done well all season. Facing a similar offense in Ole Miss last season, Kentucky smothered that spread rushing attack. The same must be done on Saturday because Tennessee does not want to get pass-happy.
• When the run is stopped, Tennessee will be forced to go to the air. Hendon Hooker has posted some strong passing numbers, but he’s taken a lot of sacks. The Vols struggle to protect the quarterback, and Hooker tends to hang onto the ball longer than he should. Stopping the run creates obvious passing situations. Obvious passing situations lead to better pass rush opportunities. Quality pass rush opportunities should lead to sacks against Tennessee.
• Games are often won or lost inside the 40. Despite an on-paper advantage, Kentucky was hammered by Mississippi State in the extended red zone. The Bulldogs were able to run the ball when it mattered most, and Kentucky had a costly turnover in a Middle Eight possession. Again this weekend, the Wildcats have an on-paper advantage. The Tennessee defense has been very bad in the red zone, and the offense can have issues scoring if chunk plays are created. Overall, Kentucky is averaging 4.96 points per scoring opportunity against Power Five foes and Tennessee is allowing 4.68 points. The Vols are scoring 4.40 points per trip, and Kentucky is allowing just 3.81 points. The Wildcats could get outgained, but what happens when scoring opportunities occur could tell the tale.
• The tempo is a major worry and defensive coordinator Brad White informed the media of that. What is the best way to handle that? Using a ball-control offense. Kentucky must get Chris Rodriguez Jr. rolling and put together multiple 10-plus play drives. That will keep a tempo offense off the field and on the sideline in some colder weather. Kentucky must make Tennessee play in their style of game and not have this turned into a track meet. Once again, that will likely be determined in the first quarter.
• Since Hendon Hooker took over at quarterback, the Vols are plus-8 in turnover margin and have not lost the turnover battle in a game yet. Tennessee has just two turnovers in the last five games to go along with seven takeaways. Meanwhile, Kentucky has forced just four takeaways all season. Playing this to a draw would be a win.
• In the third phase, Tennessee has an excellent punter to go along with great coverage teams. The Vols don’t give up punt return yardage and try to pin teams deep with excellent kickoff return coverage. Meanwhile, Velus Jones Jr. is a true threat in the return game. On paper, Tennessee has the advantage in hidden yardage. Kentucky’s punt team and coverage units must be on point on Saturday.
• Communication, communication, communication. The Vols have scored touchdowns on multiple deep passes this season due to miscommunications on the field. Most of the time, this is caused by tempo. Kentucky’s veteran defense must aggressively communicate and get aligned correctly. When set up, Kentucky’s heavy deep zone defense has been very effective at eliminating explosive plays.