Scouting Report: Vanderbilt Commodores

Kentucky enters the last conference game of the year riding a three-game losing streak in SEC play for the first time since the beginning of 2019. The Wildcats desperately need a win as Mark Stoops and his team makes the road trip to Nashville.

Clark Lea has returned to his alma mater in his first season as a head coach, and the rebuild is on. Vanderbilt has a ton of things that need to be fixed, and the former Notre Dame defensive coordinator is attempting to get all of those corrected.

The Commodores could be heading towards another winless season in SEC play. Kentucky wants to make sure that streak is not snapped on Saturday night at Vanderbilt Stadium.

KSR’s Scouting Report is back to provide the report on this year’s football program on the West End.

Nuts and Bolts

Vanderbilt hired Maryland offensive coordinator James Franklin following the 2010 season, and the 39-year-old head coach immediately changed expectations for the worst football program in the SEC.

Over three seasons in Nashville, Franklin led the Commodores to 24 wins and two top 25 finishes. Recruiting ceilings were shattered and Penn State came calling. Vandy was hopeful to keep up their winning ways under Stanford defensive coordinator Derek Mason, but that did not happen.

Mason took the Commodores to a pair of bowl games in seven seasons, but Vanderbilt never finished with a winning record under Mason. The university decided to move on after seven seasons, but it was clear that more than on-field operations needed to change.

The Commodores brought home alum Clark Lea and are hoping fundraising efforts spurned by a hometown product can help bring Vanderbilt football into the 21st century. Vandy is now selling naming rights to its stadium and has begun a huge fundraising campaign to give the football program a chance to compete in the SEC.

On the field, there is a ton of work to do. Lea’s tenure got off to a rough start by losing to FCS East Tennessee State, but the Commodores were able to bounce back to collect a couple of mid-major wins to avoid what could have been a potential winless season.

Kentucky and Vanderbilt are set to meet for the 94th time on Saturday night with the Wildcats owning a 47-42-4 series. Mark Stoops’ program has won five consecutive games in this series with consecutive blowout wins at Vanderbilt Stadium. These two programs have met every year since 1953. In that time, Kentucky owns a 44-22-2 series lead.

Out in the desert, Kentucky is a 21-point road favorite with a total of 52.5. That’s a projected final score around 37-16. The Wildcats are 6-3 against the spread (ATS) with consecutive losses as a small underdog. Vanderbilt is 3-6 ATS this season but has just one cover at home. As a dog of three possessions or more, Vanderbilt is 0-3 ATS. Since 2016, Kentucky is 1-5 ATS as a favorite of 20-plus points.

Vanderbilt offense

In his first major hire, new head coach Clark Lea went to the NFL and hired Arizona Cardinals wide receivers coach David Raih to run his offense on the West End. However, something happened in the offseason and Raih was demoted during fall camp.

In an odd move, Lea promoted quarterbacks coach Joey Lynch to the coordinator chair. The 38-year-old assistant called plays at Ball State and Colorado State from 2014-20. However, this is the former Ball State quarterback’s first year in Power Five football.

The numbers have not been pretty.

Vandy has five freshmen/sophomore starters on offense. The best running back and possibly best receiver are also underclassmen. The unit has just two former top-500 recruits that receive snaps. The struggles should not be surprising.

Sophomore quarterback Ken Seals (No. 8) is available this week after missing time with injury, but Mike Wright (No. 5) might be a better option. The 6-4 dual-threat sophomore quarterback out of Metro Atlanta can hurt you with both his arms and legs.

Wright has started the last three games for Vanderbilt and is averaging 6.82 yards per attempt with four touchdowns, three interceptions, and 152 rushing yards against Missouri. Vanderbilt has shown more big-play pop, and the numbers against Power Five teams are better with the mobile quarterback in the lineup.

Mike Wright against Power Five: 32.5% passing success rate, 7.5% explosive pass rate, 41.9% rushing success rate

Ken Seals against Power Five: 27% passing success rate, 3.4% explosive pass rate

To say there have been issues at quarterback would be putting it lightly. The Commodores are bad on offense, but Wright has big-play potential, and he gives Vandy its best shot at winning.

However, don’t be surprised if a two-quarterback system is used on Saturday night.

At tailback, Vanderbilt should be getting sophomore Rocko Griffin (No. 24) back in the lineup on Saturday. However, the 205-pound tailback is averaging just 3.3 yards per rush with a 22.9 percent rushing success rate against Power Five competition. True freshman Patrick Smith (No. 42) has gotten some more playing time recently and is averaging 4.3 yards per rush with a 34 percent rushing success rate against Power Five competition. The Commodores lost starting tailback Re’Mahn Davis earlier this season and that has had a legitimate impact on the rushing attack.

In Lynch’s scheme, Vanderbilt is a heavy shotgun offense that utilizes plenty of RPO concepts out of 11 personnel. The Commodores will be in three-wide sets nearly every snap and have a limited rotation at receiver.

Super senior Chris Pierce Jr. (No. 19) is the top target at 6-4 and 235 pounds. The Virginia native leads the team in receptions (37). Sophomore Will Sheppard (No. 14) has shown some big-play potential on the outside.

However, Sheppard has just a 36.59 percent catch rate on 41 targes against Power Five defenses. In the slot, Vanderbilt uses both Cam Johnson (No. 7) and Devin Boddie Jr. (No. 82). Despite receiving fewer targets than the outside wideouts, these two have been much more efficient.

At tight end, Ben Bresnahan (No. 86) and Gavin Schoenwald (No. 10) split snaps but neither has had a prominent role in the passing game.

On the offensive line, Vanderbilt’s best player is a sophomore and that’s really all you need to know. Bradley Ashmore (No. 70) has a chance to develop into an NFL Draft pick, but he needs a lot of help. Starting right guard Ben Cox is out with injury, and true freshman Delcin Xavier Castillo (No. 63) will be starting in his place. The Commodores have line of scrimmage issues.

Vanderbilt has a young and inexperienced offense without much talent. That is all adding up to having one of the worst offenses in college football this season. However, Mike Wright provides a home run element, and that will give Vanderbilt their best shot at success.

Vanderbilt defense

At Notre Dame, Clark Lea utilized a 4-2-5 defensive structure that asked for a hybrid safety to play in the box, at slot corner and other different areas. This allowed the Fighting Irish to stop the run with numbers while also being able to drop into zones if need be. The defense had a player with athleticism and size to blitz off of the edge.

Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah thrived at this spot under Lea at Notre Dame. Unfortunately, Vanderbilt is looking for that type of player now. That absence is causing the Commodores to show more traditional 4-3 looks with former Baltimore Ravens assistant coach Jesse Minter calling the shots.

Vanderbilt needs better personnel to thrive. The numbers are proving that.

On the line of scrimmage, Vanderbilt utilizes a four-down front at nearly all times. At defensive tackle, Daevion Davis (No. 9) is the unit’s best player and the junior does not leave the field. The 285-pounder has six pass breakups and 3.5 sacks/QB hurries as he’s become one of the defense’s top havoc creators.

At defensive end, redshirt sophomore Nate Clifton (No. 90) leads the defensive line in tackles (32). The Commodores will use eight players in the rotation, but this group has issues maintaining the point of attack.

At the second level, Vanderbilt has some linebackers with some potential. Will ‘backer Anfernee Orji (No. 0) leads the team in tackles (70) and non-sack tackles for loss (8.5). The former top-500 recruit from Texas has had some playmaking moments.

At Mike, Vanderbilt has another linebacker from Texas and Ethan Barr (No. 32) has two interceptions to go along with three pass breakups. At Sam, Michael Owusu (No. 88) is playing a bit out of position as the Commodores ask the redshirt senior to play the hybrid spot.

Redshirt freshman De’Rickey Wright (No. 33) was the guy Vandy needed to step up to play the Sam/Nickel position. However, the redshirt freshman is away from the team at the moment and his status is unknown despite some solid production — 18 tackles, three non-sack tackles for loss, four QB hurries. Not having the former four-star recruit available really hurts this defense.

Overall, the front has had issues fitting the run. Power Five teams have a 47.9 percent rushing success rate against the Commodores as teams are rushing for 180.8 yards per game. Vandy gets behind the chains, but overall the defense has been solid at limiting huge rushing plays.

In the secondary, junior cornerback Jaylen Mahoney (No. 23) is someone a struggling defense can build around. The South Carolina product has 44 tackles, two sacks, 2.5 non-sack tackles for loss, two interceptions, and three pass breakups. He is a solid player.

At safety, Dashaun Jerkins (No. 3) and Maxwell Worship (No. 21) have combined to collect 66 tackles and five interceptions. The Commodores have gotten some much-needed ball production that has been needed with the passing numbers.

Power Five quarterbacks are averaging 8.47 yards per attempt with a passing success rate of 54 percent against Vanderbilt. The Commodores have very little pass rush, and that has allowed the secondary to get picked apart by just about every passing offense.

Vanderbilt is a defense with a ton of weaknesses, but the Commodores have been good in situations. Minter’s defense is coming away with takeaways and has been surprisingly good on third down. If Vanderbilt is to hang around, those two statistical categories have to go in their direction in big ways because this group gives up a ton of yards.

Vanderbilt special teams

Last season, Vanderbilt had one of the worst placekicker situations in college football. That was addressed by adding graduate transfer Joseph Bulovas from Alabama. The veteran has hit a pair of game-winning field goals while going 10 of 15 on attempts with three makes from 40-plus.

Outside of that, there is not much to talk about with this special teams unit.

Harrison Smith is third nationally in punt attempts (56), and the redshirt senior is averaging 43.2 yards per attempt. However, only 13 punts have been downed inside the 20 and opponents are averaging over 10 yards per punt return. There appears to be a hidden yardage opportunity available.

On kickoffs, Vanderbilt only has a 43.75 percent touchback rate but has done a very good limiting return yardage. Cam Johnson is averaging less than seven yards per punt return, and the kickoff returns have been pedestrian outside of a 98-yard return by James Zilgor III.

The Commodores are an average at best special teams unit.

Keys to Victory

• Kentucky is essentially facing the opposite opponent of last week. Tennessee destroyed teams in first quarters, and Vanderbilt is one of the slowest starting teams in college football. Opponents are outscoring Vandy 110-23 in the opening 15 minutes. Facing a potential trap spot on the road, Kentucky needs a fast start to create some momentum early. If not, Vandy has proven to be much better over the final three quarters and could make this a game if Kentucky is unable to build an early lead.
• Teams have had success running the football against Vanderbilt, but the Commodores have done a decent overall job keeping rushing attacks at bay. Only Missouri’s Tyler Badie really ran wild. To have a big day on offense, Kentucky will need the passing game to execute against a very bad pass defense. Can Will Levis put another good game together? If he does, Kentucky is going to gobble up a lot of yards.
• Vanderbilt is super inefficient on offense, but quarterback Mike Wright provides a different element. The sophomore can hurt defenses with his legs and will be used in some unique run concepts against Kentucky. The Wildcats must be able to slow him down. Wright gives Vanderbilt their best chance at creating explosive plays. Without the big gains, the Commodores should have issues moving the football.
• If Kentucky struggles on offense, it will be due to third downs and turnovers. Jesse Minter’s defense has been solid at finding stops on third down and being opportunistic with takeaways. Kentucky is fifth nationally in third down conversion rate on offense and that needs to hold. If the Wildcats protect the ball and move the chains, the big road favorite should be just fine at Vanderbilt Stadium.
• Kentucky’s pass defense has been gutted by the last three opponents. In the three-game losing streak, the Wildcats are allowing 11.52 yards per attempt and a passing success rate of 65.83 percent with eight touchdowns and zero interceptions. However, the schedule presents a slump-busting opportunity. If the Wildcats’ pass defense can’t get right against Vandy, Kentucky better be prepared to win some shootouts to close the year.