SEC Bubble Watch

(image via SJU.edu)

Good bye Ole Miss. Good bye LSU. The two teams combined this past week went 0-4, with four road losses to Texas A&M, Arkansas, Georgia and Alabama. Not good if you’re on the bubble. Not good if you’re anything, really. Both teams are going to have to do miraculous things to get in at this point, outside of winning the SEC tournament.

That means Ole Miss is going to have to sweep UK and Florida this week, and LSU is going to have to win at UK and at Florida. Yeah, not gonna happen.

This means that the SEC is looking more and more like a 4-bid max league, and the smart money is probably on only three to get in. Yuck. Alrighty folks, let’s get down to it in this week’s edition of SEC Bubble Watch.

Locks: Florida (23-2, RPI 4, SOS 33), Kentucky (19-6, RPI 12, SOS 5)

Yes, the Gators took care of business at Rupp this past weekend, but that doesn’t change the fact that UK is going to make the field of 68. The bubble is just too weak for the Cats to fall that far. The bigger statement that I believe was made in Lexington on Saturday was that Florida is the best team in the country. They have talent, experience, size, depth, everything. Honestly, I thought there would be no team in the country that could look as physically imposing as UK does. Then I saw the Gators and holy cow. I’m pretty sure Patric Young’s deltoids could be distinctly seen from the upper level. I think the Gators will end up with a one seed, while the Cats will hover from a 3-5 over the last few weeks.

Just in: Missouri (18-7, RPI 38, SOS 65)

While most of the bubble teams in the SEC floundered this past week, Mizzou was the lone exception. The Tigers clawed their way to hard fought home wins over Arkansas and Tennessee. While neither of them were pretty at times, a win is a win at the end of the day. The remaining schedule is incredibly favorable for Missouri down the stretch, but avoiding bad losses is a must. I’d say a 6-2 record down the stretch will get them a bid, as the non-conference win over UCLA is looking better and better.

Just out: Tennessee (15-10, RPI 54, SOS 10)

At some point, you have to start winning games and can’t just be a computer juggernaut. Their BPI is 41st, their KenPom is 26th, and their SOS is 10th, but other than the huge win over Virginia, their profile is just a bunch of meh. The Vols are now 6-6 in the mediocre SEC without any wins against UK, Florida or Mizzou, and with only one crack at them remaining (home vs. Mizzou on 3/8). A single bad loss down the stretch may be too much to overcome as this is their remaining schedule: Georgia, @Texas A&M, @Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, @Auburn, and Missouri. All are games that Tennessee very well could, and should win. Unfortunately, the Vols haven’t shown the consistency this season where I can trust them to.

@BWardKSR